GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-3) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-5), 4:25ET
Line: Packers -7, Total: 43.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Staying in the Hunt
In the highly-competitive AFC North – where every team sits at .500 or better – it’s the Ravens who currently lead the way. However, it looks as though they’ll try to maintain that lead without their star quarterback, Lamar Jackson, who was unable to practice this week following an ankle injury in last week’s loss against Cleveland. Jackson was replaced by backup Tyler Huntley, who appears poised to make his second start of the season. Huntley is 1-0 as the starter, beating the Bears 16-13 in Week 11. He entered Sunday’s loss against Cleveland at the beginning of the second quarter with the Ravens trailing 10-0 and Baltimore actually outscored Cleveland 22-14 with Huntley in the game, though he and the offense failed to get into range for a game-winning field goal attempt after recovering an onside kick with 1:15 left in the game.
But who is Tyler Huntley? He entered the league in 2020 as an undrafted free agent out of Utah. He was signed by the Ravens days after the 2020 draft and spent last season bouncing between the team’s practice squad and active roster. He appeared in two games last season – both blowout wins by the Ravens – completing 3-of-5 passes for 15 yards. Prior to the NFL, Huntley had a successful college career with the Utes, culminating in a 2019 senior season in which he led the team to an 11-1 regular season, a #5 ranking by the College Football Playoff committee and an appearance in the Pac-12 Championship game. Unfortunately, Huntley struggled in the Championship game, completing 17-of-29 passes for 193 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He was outdueled by Oregon QB Justin Herbert, as the Ducks rolled to a 37-15 win and ended Utah’s hopes of making it into the College Football Playoff. Huntley finished the 2019 season completing 73.1% of his passes with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions; he also rushed for five scores.
The big issues for Huntley in his limited NFL playing time have been taking sacks and not hanging on to the football. He’s been sacked nine times this season, despite attempting only 85 passes (taking one sack for every 9.4 attempts); he’s also fumbled three times, losing two. He’s completing a high percentage of his passes (68.2%), but they have been mostly short throws (6.2 yards per attempt). He’ll now face a Green Bay defense that coincidentally allows 6.2 yards per attempt, which is tied for fourth-lowest in the NFL. The Packers are also Top 10 in passing yards allowed (218.5 per game, 8th-lowest) and opponent passer rating (86.1, 8th-worst). It will be a tough test for Huntley and the Ravens offense as they attempt to hang on to first place in the AFC North.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Don’t Bet Against Rodgers
The Packers are one of the top spread teams in the NFL this season, going 11-1 ATS in their past 12 games (11-2 ATS this season). Both of their ATS losses have been in non-home games, though they are still 5-2 ATS away from Lambeau in 2021. The Ravens have turned it around a bit of late, covering three of their last four games after starting the season 3-6 ATS. They have been strong as a home underdog, going 5-1 ATS in their last six such games dating back to 2015 – they also won all five of those games outright. Plus, they’re 10-2 ATS in December games since 2019.
Both the ticket percentage (86%) and the money (77%) are heavily on the Packers but much of that is likely due to bettors hammering the early line when Lamar Jackson’s status was unknown. For books that posted the line prior to last weekend’s games, it sat around Green Bay -2, showing the importance of Jackson in Vegas’ eyes. Most books had this line between Packers -4 to -5.5 when Jackson’s status was unclear earlier in the week but moved quickly as he begun to miss practices. It will be worth monitoring how the line moves throughout the day as we get more information on Baltimore’s star.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Defensive Gameplan
Aaron Rodgers is having another MVP-type season, leading the league in passer rating (108.8) while being the only QB in the league who has thrown fewer than five interceptions while attempting more than 300 passes. His touchdown-to-interception ratio of 27-to-4 is the best in the league. A big reason for Rodgers’ success has been the lack of pressure generated by opposing defenses; he’s been pressured at the fifth-lowest rate in the league, and he maintains the NFL’s best 121.8 passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket, according to Next Gen Stats. The Packers’ offensive line has a 65% pass-block win rate according to ESPN Analytics, which ranks them seventh in the NFL. Combine that with Rodgers’ propensity to get rid of the ball quickly -- his 2.68 seconds to throw ranks sixth-quickest among QBs with 300+ attempts -- and it becomes difficult for defensive lines to get to the veteran.
Enter Baltimore, which is one of the most blitz-happy defenses in the NFL. The Ravens blitz on 35% of opponent dropbacks, which is the third-highest rate behind only Miami (38%) and Tampa Bay (39%) according to Pro-Football Reference. By bringing extra rushers, the Ravens generate pressure on 26% of dropbacks, which ranks 10th, however they have a QB-hurry rate of 9.9% which ranks 20th. While Rodgers picks apart defenses from clean pockets, his passer rating drops from 121.8 without pressure to 44.3 when pressured – the largest gap in the league for any quarterback. His completion percentage drops from 74.2% to 33.3%, yards-per-attempt go from 8.6 to 4.0 and he’s thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions while under duress, while tossing 25 TD and just 2 INT when he’s not. In other words, Rodgers goes from Superman when facing no pressure to Clark Kent when he does. The Ravens need to see more of Kent than Superman if they plan to beat Green Bay on Sunday.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-7) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (10-3), 8:20ET
Line: Bucs -11.5, Total: 45.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
COVID Impact Hits the Sideline
Tom Brady doesn’t struggle, consistently, against anyone. But if there is one opponent that has seemed to contain him, it’s been New Orleans and Sean Payton. But after testing positive for COVID, Payton won’t be on the sideline Sunday Night. Obviously, Payton’s fingerprints will still be all over the gameplan, but it’s worth wondering how the team will respond without its head man roaming the sidelines.
The Saints have sacked Brady exactly three times in the four games he’s played against them in a Bucs uniform (including playoffs). He’s had the same number of turnovers – eight, seven interceptions and a lost fumble – as touchdown passes. He played well in the playoff matchup, throwing two touchdowns without turning the ball over, but has eight turnovers (including two pick-sixes) in the three regular-season matchups and the Bucs have gone 0-3 in those games.
Brady was 2-0 against the Saints prior to Sean Payton taking over in 2005, and he went 2-1 against Payton in a Patriots uniform. But his record in the regular season against Payton-coached Saints teams is 2-4 with exactly as many interceptions (10) as touchdown passes and 17 sacks in those six games. Perhaps Brady will have a mental boost when he looks across the sideline and doesn’t see Payton, but it might not matter who is wearing the headset in a game where Tampa comes in on a four-game winning streak facing a New Orleans team that has dropped five of its last six.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Opposite Directions
Despite its 10-3 record, Tampa Bay is 7-6 against-the-spread this season. However, the team began the season 3-6 ATS in the first nine but has since covered four straight. The Bucs have been excellent as home favorites, as well, covering five straight games with four of those featuring double-digit spreads to cover. That represents a massive turnaround, as Tom Brady began his Bucs career with a 1-7-1 ATS record as a favorite at Raymond James Stadium, but a switch seems to have been flipped since December of last season as their only failed cover since was the season opening two-point win over Dallas (Bucs were nine-point favorites).
On the other side, New Orleans began the season 5-4 vs. the number, but has dropped three of the last four against-the-spread (6-7 ATS on the season). However, New Orleans has had Tampa Bay’s number, covering six of the last seven against the NFC South rival. Sean Payton’s group has been good as a road underdog, too, covering eight of their past 10 chances since the start of 2018 and going 16-6-1 ATS since 2015.
The bets are slightly favoring the Saints in this matchup with 58% going in that direction, but the money is split 50/50 between the two squads, according to Action Network. Because of the even money, the line in the matchup has stayed nearly static since opening, with most books either still at their opening number, or at most sliding a half-point towards Tampa.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Bad Matchup
As discussed in the analytical section of the previous game, getting pressure on MVP-caliber quarterbacks is the best defense a team has to trying to slow down elite passing attacks. That’s clear when looking at Bucs’ future Hall of Famer Tom Brady who is now the odds-on favorite to win the league’s MVP award (-175) for the fourth time in his career and move him into second place by himself (Peyton Manning’s five MVP awards are the most in league history). How is Brady having success at such a high level at 44 years of age? By staying upright. Brady is pressured on just 10.9% of his dropbacks, which is easily the lowest in the league (LA’s Matt Stafford is next at 14.7% – no other QB is below 19%), according to Pro-Football Reference. Some of that has to do with Brady’s quick release, as his 2.5 seconds to throw ranks as the second-shortest ahead of only Ben Roethlisberger’s 2.4 seconds. The Tampa Bay offensive line is solid, winning in pass blocking at a 62% rate which is tied for 10th, according to ESPN. The biggest contributor to that number is Bucs’ 2020 first round pick Tristen Wirfs – who was drafted with Brady in mind – as his 93% pass-block win rate is tied for third among all NFL offensive tackles.
Although New Orleans has seemingly had Brady’s number (as discussed above), this Saints defensive line is one of the league’s worst, tied with the Giants and Lions for lowest pass-rush win rate at 32%. The Saints generate pressure on 24.3% of opponent dropbacks – which ranks 20th – but they create QB hurries on only 8.1% of dropbacks, which is 29th. Brady needs to be aware, though, that despite limited pressure opportunities, New Orleans loves to hit the QB, whether he has the ball or not. The Saints are tied for 2nd with the Ravens by creating a QB knockdown on 12% of passes (Only Miami’s 13.2% is higher).
Because they don’t generate heavy pressure, opposing QBs average 8.8 air yards per throw against the Saints, which is tied with Green Bay for the third highest in the league, behind Denver (8.9) and Detroit (9.2). While Brady doesn’t chuck the ball down the field as he once did -- his 7.8 air yards per throw is middle-of-the-pack among QBs -- he’s certainly capable of hitting them when he needs to, especially when he has time in the pocket. The primary beneficiary figures to be wide receiver Mike Evans, whose 13.1 average air yards per target easily paces Bucs pass catchers. Evans needs just 115 yards to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the eighth straight season. He’s already the all-time record holder in most 1,000-yard receiving season to being a career with seven, and if he’s able to do it for the eighth time he will tie Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, and Cris Carter for the third-most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons at any time during a career (Tim Brown had nine straight seasons and Jerry Rice holds the record with 11). It could be a long day for the Saints’ secondary if their front continues to struggle in creating pressure, especially against an NFL Legend throwing to a potential Hall of Famer in Evans.