Will the "Ghosts" haunt Darnold again?
Darnold has historically struggled against Patriots D, plus what the Packers might look like without Rodgers
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-4) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-4), 1 ET
Line: Patriots -3.5, Total: 41
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Who? Mac Jones. Who? Mac Jones.
Prior to the start of the season, New England elected to release Cam Newton and declare that #15 overall pick Mac Jones would be their starter. So far, it appears the move has paid off. While New England is just one game better than the same time last season (4-4 this season, 3-5 through eight games last season), the Pats have gotten far better quarterback play from Mac Jones than they did from last year’s cast. Through eight games last season, Cam Newton, Brian Hoyer, and Jarrett Stidham had combined for three touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. Newton did have eight scores on the ground, as he started seven of the eight games (missed one due to COVID). He threw for under 200 yards in five of the seven starts, produced a quarterback rating below 100 in six of the seven and failed to throw any touchdown passes in five of seven starts over the team’s first half of the season.
Jones, on the other hand, has thrown for at least 200 yards in all but one of his eight starts and has thrown a TD pass in six of eight. He has nine touchdown passes and six interceptions. Three of the interceptions came in one start, a loss to New Orleans that was Jones’ worst so far in his first season. Jones has completed 70% of his passes or better in five of his eight appearances and had a 100+ passer rating in half of the eight games. After losing to Miami in his first career start, his other three losses have come against teams with a combined 17-5 record (Saints, Bucs, and Cowboys). However, he beat the Jets twice and the Texans once before making his first big statement with a win over the Chargers last Sunday. Though Jones’ numbers against LA won’t wow anyone (18-35, 217 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT), he was very solid. If you’re interested, we wrote an in-depth evaluation of Jones’ play in that game, and you can read it here.
Jones now faces a Panthers defense that has been up-and-down this season. In its four wins, Carolina has given up 43 points (10.8 PPG). In four losses, that number jumps to 116 points (29.0 PPG). In wins, the Panthers have sacked opposing quarterbacks 17 times and forced five turnovers. In losses, they’ve registered four sacks and three turnovers. One important note: Panthers’ linebacker Shaq Thompson played the first four games of the season (3-1) before missing the team’s next three (0-3) and then returning for their win last weekend over Atlanta. In that game against the Falcons, Thompson made his presence known, leading the team with 10 tackles, and adding an interception, which was his second of the season. Additionally last Sunday, former Patriots’ cornerback Stephon Gilmore made his Carolina debut. He had been recovering from a partially torn quad suffered last season and New England traded him to the Panthers last month rather than give him the new contract he was seeking. He was eased into the lineup against Atlanta, playing 33% of the defensive snaps, but he still managed to make one of the biggest plays of the game, intercepting Matt Ryan with under two minutes to play to seal the win for Carolina. This week, Gilmore will have some extra motivation going against the team that chose to trade him rather than to pay him.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Pats Have Struggled in Two Applicable Scenarios…
Recent history for the Patriots has shown two interesting trends emerging that both apply to this game: coming off of a spread-cover and as a favorite. New England is 2-9-1 ATS in its previous 12 games following an ATS win and 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games as a favorite. The Panthers have been strong as an underdog, posting a 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 when getting points. However, they are 4-11-1 ATS in their past 16 home games.
The tickets (68%) and the money (67%) are nearly equal and are both heading toward the Patriots, according to Action Network. However, they are reporting some sharp action on the Panthers. DraftKings initially set this line at Patriots -1.5 prior to last weekend. But following New England’s win over Los Angeles, it was re-opened on Sunday night at Pats -2.5 and has since moved to -3.5 due to the action coming in on New England.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
How We’ve Missed You, Christian
It appears as though Christian McCaffrey will finally return to the Panthers offense in this game, as they have activated the running back from IR and expect him to play, barring a setback in pre-game warmups. McCaffrey was injured during Carolina’s win over Houston in Week 3 and has missed the past five games. After going 3-0 with its star back, Carolina went 1-4 in games that he did not play. QB Sam Darnold did not look the same after losing McCaffrey, either. After throwing one interception in his first three starts, Darnold has thrown seven picks since. His QB rating in games with McCaffrey was above 95 in each contest; without him, he hasn’t reached a rating above 85.5 and he’s had four games with a rating under 70. In Carolina’s four wins this season, Darnold has been sacked six times. In their four losses, he’s been dropped 15 times. In wins, he has thrown one interception. In losses, he’s thrown at least one interception in each game, totaling seven picks. Darnold has also been abysmal in his career against New England, throwing just one touchdown with six interceptions in three lopsided losses by a combined score of 99 to 17. And, in case you forgot, Bill Belichick’s defense had him “seeing ghosts” in 2019.
After starting the season on a heater, Panthers’ wide receiver DJ Moore has cooled off. In the first four games, Moore had 30 catches for 398 yards and three touchdowns. He reached at least 79 yards receiving in each contest. In the four games since, he’s had no more than six catches in a game, fewer than 75 yards receiving in each and no touchdown catches. When defenses were keying in on McCaffery, Moore thrived. In the first game without McCaffrey, Carolina actually deployed Moore in a McCaffrey-type role, sometimes lining him up in the backfield, getting the ball in hands quickly, etc. But it appears that defenses quickly realized that Moore was the most explosive playmaker in the offense without McCaffrey and began to try to take him away. The Panthers still attempted to get Moore the ball -- he’s gotten at least seven targets in every game this season, including double-digit targets in three of the games that CMC has missed. Moore is one of seven wide receivers in the NFL who has attracted at least 40% of a team’s total attempted air yards, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s third in the league in total targets with 81 (Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill each have 90). Unfortunately, Moore’s catch percentage (percent of targets that result in receptions) of 61.7% is the ninth-lowest among receivers with at least 50 targets. Some of that is on Moore -- he’s tied for fifth in the league with five drops according to Pro Football Reference -- and some of that is on his quarterback -- Darnold’s xCOMP +/- of minus-5.1 is third-worst, only ahead of Jameis Winston (-5.3) and Zach Wilson (-6.9).
Part of the problem for Darnold has been his pass-catchers; they aren’t doing him any favors. In addition to Moore’s five drops, fellow WR Robby Anderson and RB Chuba Hubbard are each tied for second-most with six drops each. Of the 10 NFL players who have at least five drops, only three of them have 50 targets or less … and two of them play for the Panthers. Anderson (50), Hubbard (26) and Jets WR Corey Davis (42) are the three players with that dubious distinction. Anderson has been a massive disappointment his season. When Darnold has targeted him in 2021, the QB’s passer rating is 37.4. For reference, if Darnold spiked the ball into the ground every play, his rating would be 39.6. The next-lowest passer rating when targeted (with at least 50 targets) is Bears’ WR Darnell Mooney at 61.0.
The Panthers desperately miss their lead back and most explosive playmaker. Although McCaffrey is expected to see less than a full workload in his return, some Christian McCaffrey is certainly better than no Christian McCaffrey.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-1) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-4), 4:25ET
Line: Chiefs -7, Total: 48
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
While We Wait, Let’s Spread Some Love
Since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018, we’ve been waiting to see him go head-to-head with Aaron Rodgers. Two of the best QBs in the game, with two of the strongest arms, on the same field facing off. Unfortunately, it hasn’t happened yet. And it’s not going to happen this week, as Aaron Rodgers is out because he tested positive for COVID this week. These teams met in 2019, but Mahomes missed the game due to injury. That contest happens to be just one of two that the Chiefs’ QB has missed because of injury since taking over the reins.
So, that’s the bad news. The good news is that we’re going to get out first extended look Jordan Love, the Packers 1st-round pick of 2020. Love was the fourth quarterback taken in the draft, as the other three went in the first six picks (Joe Burrow 1st, Tua Tagovailoa 5th and Justin Herbert 6th) and Love was selected with the 26th overall pick by the Packers. Of the five quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds of the 2020 Draft, Love will be the last to make his starting debut (Jalen Hurts was taken in the second round).
Love attended Utah State and took over as the starter midway through his redshirt freshman season and remained the starter until entering the draft after his junior year. For his Aggies career, Love threw for 8,600 yards and 60 touchdowns, while tossing 29 interceptions. He scored nine rushing touchdowns but averaged only 2.4 yards per carry. In his final season in Logan (UT), the redshirt junior struggled. After a 2018 campaign in which he threw 32 touchdowns and six interceptions, Love followed it up with a 20-touchdown, 17-interception season in 2019. His completion percentage fell from 64% to 62% and his rating dropped from 158.3 to 129.1.
Despite the drop-off, the Packers elected to take Love in the first round. Last year, he was inactive for every Packers game, listed as the third-string quarterback. He made his NFL debut in Week 1 when the Packers were getting annihilated by the Saints, completing 5-of-7 passes for 67 yards. He was also strip-sacked and lost the fumble. But seven passing attempts during a blowout hardly qualifies as a strong body of work, and Love’s last meaningful playing time came in his final game at Utah State, a 51-41 loss against Kent State in the Frisco Bowl. It’s been 688 days since that game.
The good news for Love is that he gets to start against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs are in the bottom 10 in points allowed/game (27.5), passing yards allowed/game (269.8), total yards allowed/game (391.5), third-down conversion percentage allowed (46.7%), and percentage of red-zone drives resulting in touchdowns (72.4%). They have the second-lowest sack percentage at 4.0% (Miami, 3.7%) and they allow more yards per play than any team in the league at 6.4.
In a way, it could be a blessing for the Packers; Aaron Rodgers is expected to seek other opportunities in 2022 and they need to see what they have in Love. He’ll have an opportunity to put his abilities on display and he gets a great matchup to do it. We will see if he and the Packers’ offense is able to take advantage.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Betting Against the Chiefs
If you decided on the morning of November 9, 2020, that you were going to start exclusively betting AGAINST the Kansas City Chiefs, congratulations. Since then, Kansas City has gone 2-13-1 against-the-spread in the regular season -- and both of those covers came on the road. The Chiefs have failed to cover in eight straight home games, and they were favored in seven of those. The good news, if you could call it that, is that both of their two covers came this season, and both came against NFC opponents (at Philadelphia and Washington). The Packers are 3-5-2 ATS in their last 10 games when installed as at least 7-point underdogs and have lost all 10 of those games outright. Only one of those games was with Aaron Rodgers, and they covered in that game. So, without Rodgers, they are 2-5-2 ATS in their last nine as touchdown-dogs or more. The total has gone Over in seven of the nine.
Despite the Rodgers’ absence, the Packers are attracting 67% of the bets and 75% of the handle in this matchup, according to Action Network. They are reporting sharp action on the Chiefs. Similarly with the total, 54% of the tickets and 65% of the money is on the Over, but there is sharp action reported on the Under.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Packers Without Rodgers
Since Rodgers became the Packers’ starting quarterback in 2018, he started all but 18 games. In those games, Green Bay is 6-11-1. In Rodgers’ 198 appearances since 2008, the Packers have averaged 27.1 points per game and their record is 133-64-1. In the 18 games without him, they average nearly a touchdown less at 20.7 points. The last time they were without their franchise QB for an extended period was 2017. Rodgers missed nine games and the team went 3-6 in his absence. Brett Hundley filled in and threw nine touchdowns and 12 interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 70.6. The lowest rating that Rodgers has ever had in a season where he started at least seven games was 92.7 in 2015.
Davante Adams was out of last week’s game because of COVID, and we wrote about how Rodgers had performed with Davante Adams out of the lineup -- he’s actually never lost a start where Adams did not play. With Adams expected to return for this contest, we wanted to look at how he’s done with other quarterbacks. Believe it or not, Adams has done fine without Rodgers, as well. In the seven games where Adams played and Rodgers did not, he averages 8.7 targets, 5.9 catches, 69.9 yards and has caught four total touchdown passes. In the 100 games with Rodgers, Adams averages 8.6 targets, 5.6 receptions, 68.2 yards and has caught 61 touchdown passes.
Rodgers’ absence hasn’t affected the Green Bay run game in the past, either. In games with Rodgers, the Packers average 112.3 yards/game on the ground and 4.3 yards/carry. In the games without him, they average 115.8 yards/game rushing and 4.3 yards/carry. They don’t generally lean more on the run game, either, averaging 25.9 rushes per game with Rodgers under center and 26.9 without him.
It’s been a while since we saw the Packers start a game without Rodgers, and hopefully he will return after missing just one game. But football fans have to be excited to see what Jordan Love can do and what this team could look like in 2022 and beyond.
Great info. Provides me everything I need to get ready for Sunday’s game.