Top 10 vs. Unranked: Why Vegas Thinks We Could See a Shakeup on Saturday
Previews of all the big college football games on Saturday, including why some top teams should be on alert
It’s another week in college football with no Top 10 teams facing a ranked opponent, so we’re going to shift the presentation of this week’s STAT Stack. In an effort to cover as many games as possible, we will hit the “Every Fan” and “Sports Bettor” sections and eschew the “Sports Nerd” section for this week.
As always, if you’re looking for information on a specific game, please feel free to reach out at info@stat-factor.com. Or, if you have any thoughts or feedback, we would love to hear it.
#5 OHIO STATE (7-1) AT NEBRASKA (3-6), 12ET
Line: Buckeyes -14.5, Total: 67.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Concern in Columbus
Buckeyes fans have to be a little disconcerted with last week’s effort against Penn State. Although Ohio State won the game 33-24, there were signs of problems that seem to crop up when the Buckeyes face higher-level competition.
OSU made six red-zone trips and came away with one touchdown, while they allowed Penn State to go three-for-three. The Buckeyes committed seven false starts, including one on running back TreVeyon Henderson on fourth-and-goal from inside the one. Quarterback C.J. Stroud said after the game that Penn State defenders were calling out some of the Buckeyes' plays before the snap. The area that helped them secure the win despite the problems was the turnover battle; OSU forced two fumbles and scored its sixth defensive touchdown of the season. Turnovers are notoriously fickle, and generally not a reliable way to win games against better teams.
Facing a Penn State team that couldn't move the ball a week earlier against Illinois, the Buckeyes defense allowed 361 yards passing. The Nittany Lions totaled 394 yards in this game after being held to less than 300 in consecutive games. Coming into the game, Penn State had scored one touchdown on its last 24 offensive possessions; then scored three TDs on the first 10 possessions in this game.
Ohio State has played two ranked teams this season and neither performance was inspiring. They lost to Oregon in Week 2 and struggled with Penn State last week. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), those are the only two of Ohio State’s opponents who rank in the Top 20. Minnesota, who the Buckeyes beat on Opening Weekend, is next at 33. After that, no other team is ranked in the Top 60. In fact, their other five opponents have an average FPI of 85.8.
Although Nebraska is 3-6, they have an FPI of 29 and are the highest-ranked team with a losing record. Why? They’ve lost three games to teams who are ranked in the Top 8 of the first College Football Playoff rankings (Michigan State, Michigan and Oklahoma) by a combined 13 points. Not only will the Buckeyes have to be careful this weekend, but they’ve also got the toughest stretch of their season coming up. Every one of their remaining opponents is in the Top 40 in FPI, with two in the Top 15 (Michigan State 15 and Michigan 5).
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
A Pattern Emerges
Ohio State is 8-1-1 against-the-spread as a road favorite since Ryan Day’s first full season in 2019. That’s the best cover percentage in FBS over that span by a team that has played at least 10 such games. The Buckeyes are also 13-5-1 ATS in conference games in the same span. They have dominated this matchup, as well, posting a 6-1 ATS record against Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. The average score in those games: OSU 49, NEB 21. Nebraska is 5-12 ATS as a home underdog over the last 15 seasons, including 2-4 ATS under Scott Frost. The Huskers have covered four of their last five as an underdog, though three of the four were on the road. They started the season hot, going 5-1 ATS in their first six, but have failed to cover in three straight, losing straight-up as favorites in the last two games at Minnesota and home vs. Purdue.
Bettors are backing the trends, as 83% of the tickets are on the Buckeyes according to Action Network. The majority of the money is on Ohio State as well, but that 65% is quite a bit lower. Additionally, Action is reporting sharp action on the Cornhuskers.
#9 WAKE FOREST (8-0) AT NORTH CAROLINA (4-4), 12ET
Line: Tar Heels -2.5, Total: 77
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Uncharted Territory
The AP poll began ranking college football teams in the mid 1930’s. In the 80+ years since it began, Wake Forest had never reached Top 10 status. Until this week. With a 45-7 win over Duke, Wake Forest reached 8-0 for the first time in its history. Not only are the Deacons ranked #10 in the AP Poll, but more importantly they are #9 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. It’s not their first appearance in the College Football Playoff ranking, though it is their highest. Two seasons ago, the 7-1 Demon Deacons were ranked 19th in the initial release. They would lose the following weekend to drop out of the rankings and finish the season on a 1-4 run, including a loss to Michigan State in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Obviously, they don’t want to repeat that history. However, Las Vegas certainly thinks it’s possible, considering they have been installed as underdogs in this trip to Chapel Hill against a UNC team that was ranked 10th to start the season but has stumbled to a 4-4 record. According to FPI, North Carolina is the best team that Wake will have faced this season. Their best win came over Virginia, ranked 36th. Like Ohio State, Wake has dominated lesser competition, beating only two teams in the Top 50 in FPI (Virginia and Louisville). Outside of those wins, Wake has beaten an FCS opponent (Norfolk State) and five FBS teams whose average FPI ranking is 80.4 (Old Dominion, Syracuse, Florida State, Army and Duke).
The easy part of the schedule is done, however, and the real test now begins. Their next three opponents are all in the FPI Top 30 (at 30 UNC, vs. 18 NC State, at 10 Clemson).
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Top 10 Underdogs
If the line for this game holds until kickoff, it would be the 4th time this season an AP Top-10 team is an underdog against an unranked opponent, the most instances in a single season since 1978. Two of the previous three covered the spread. AP Top-10 teams are 20-13 ATS as an underdog against unranked opponents since 1978, including 10-3 ATS since 2005 and 4-1 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Wake Forest is 16-10 ATS as a road underdog under Dave Clawson, including 11-4 ATS in its last 15 such games, while UNC has failed to cover 3 straight games this season. The last time the Heels failed to cover four straight was under Larry Fedora in 2017 when they dropped five in a row.
Again, the bettors are backing the trends with 62% of the bets and 54% of the handle on the Deacons. Action is reporting sharp action on the Tar Heels, however.
#3 MICHIGAN STATE (8-0) AT PURDUE (5-3), 3:30ET
Line: Spartans -3, Total: 53.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Recent History is against Kenneth Walker for Heisman
Between the years of 1994 and 1999, four of the six Heisman Trophy winners were running backs -- Rashaan Salaam (’94), Eddie George (’95), Ricky Williams (’98) and Ron Dayne (’99) -- while only one was a quarterback (Danny Wuerffel, ’96). But when the calendar turned to a new millennium, it was clear that the 2000s were going to be all about the QBs.
Quarterbacks won eight of the 10 Heisman trophies from 2000-2009, while RBs Reggie Bush (2005) and Mark Ingram (2009) were the only non-QBs to claim the award (though Bush’s Heisman has since been vacated). In the following decade, QBs took home the hardware in nine of the 10 seasons, with only running back Derrick Henry (2015) taking it home as a non-QB. Last season, though, wide receiver Devonta Smith won the award, becoming the first WR to win since Desmond Howard in 1991.
All told, 17 of the 21 Heisman winners in this century have been quarterbacks. We haven’t seen back-to-back, non-QB winners since we reached the 2000’s. Enter: Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker wasn’t even on the Vegas odds board in the preseason and his initial entry following a 264-yard, four touchdown performance in an opening week win over Northwestern had him at 1000-1 to take home the award. He didn’t get below 50-1 until his 126-yard, three TD game against Rutgers.
But nothing will ignite a Heisman campaign like a true “Heisman Moment” and Kenneth Walker sure had his last week. He ran for 197 yards and five touchdowns in a win over in-state rival and 6th-ranked Michigan, including a game-winning, 23-yard touchdown scamper with just over five minutes remaining. It could be argued that he’s had the only true “Heisman Moment” this season, but it still wasn’t enough to take over the top spot in the betting odds. According to Draft Kings, Walker is +300 to take home the award, trailing only Alabama signal-caller Bryce Young who is +180.
History is not on Walker’s side, but his team’s schedule might be. Michigan State still has games against Ohio State and Penn State, plus a potential Big Ten Championship game. One “Heisman Moment” may not be enough, but if he can put up a few more? It might be the first time QBs are shut out for consecutive years in the past two decades.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
The Mel Tucker Turnaround
Michigan State is 6-2 ATS this season, tied for the 2nd-best cover percentage among Power 5 teams. Only Syracuse (8-1 ATS) has been better. The Spartans are 4-0 ATS on the road this season after a 1-2 ATS road mark in Melvin Tucker’s 1st year in 2020 and have gone 4-1 ATS against Big Ten opponents this season after posting a 2-5 ATS record last season. Michigan State is 25-13 ATS as a road favorite over the last 15 seasons, including six straight covers -- two of those wins have come under Tucker (2-0 ATS).
On the other side, Purdue has covered 17 of its last 25 games against ranked opponents dating back to 2013, including 9-3 ATS under Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers are also 17-7 ATS as an underdog under Brohm, which is the 2nd-best cover percentage in FBS over that span among teams who have played at least 20 such games.
As is becoming a theme in this week’s Stack, the bet percentage is heavily on the ranked road team with the Spartans attracting 80% of the tickets. However, while the total money is also on their side, it’s quite a bit lower at 57%, according to Action. They are also reporting sharp money on the Boilermakers.
#13 AUBURN (6-2) AT #14 TEXAS A&M (6-2), 3:30ET
Line: Aggies -4.5, Total: 49.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Bo Nix Kryptonite
If there’s a team in the SEC who really seems to have Auburn quarterback Bo Nix’s number, it’s Texas A&M. Nix has not topped 150 yards passing in either of his two matchups with the Aggies. He’s faced SEC defenses 22 times in his career, and he’s been held under 150 yards passing in four of them -- Texas A&M owns half of those. Despite the lack of yardage, Nix and the Tigers did beat A&M 28-20 in 2019. Auburn managed to win while recording less than 300 yards of total offense. Last season, A&M beat Auburn 31-20 while racking up over 500 yards against the Tigers’ defense. Auburn had 340 yards, but nearly 200 of those were on the ground. Nix has thrown just one touchdown pass in the two games, but has not thrown an interception.
An interesting note about this rivalry: Texas A&M has never beaten Auburn in College Station (0-4), while winning four out of five in Auburn since joining the SEC in 2012.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Rest = Rust
Texas A&M is 2-10 ATS following a bye since joining the SEC in 2012. The Aggies have been good this season so far, going 4-0 ATS at home and covering three straight overall. A&M is 19-11-1 ATS as a favorite under Jimbo Fisher but 2-4 ATS when the opponent is ranked. Auburn’s first-year head coach Bryan Harsin is 8-4 ATS in his career as a road underdog, the majority of those coming as the Boise State head man. These teams have split their nine meetings since 2012, with each going 4-4-1 ATS. However, Auburn is 3-0-1 in College Station. The tickets favor Auburn (53%) while the handle leans toward A&M (59%).
#4 OREGON (7-1) AT WASHINGTON (4-4), 7:30ET
Line: Ducks -7, Total: 49.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Help Us, Oregon, You’re Our Only Hope
The College Football Playoff era has not been kind to the Pac-12, though it started out great. In the first year of the playoff, Oregon was voted in and beat Florida State to reach the title game, losing 42-20 against Ohio State. In the five seasons since, only one Pac-12 team has made it, and none have done it in the past four years. Washington was the last to get in, losing in the semifinal against Alabama in 2016-17. The Oregon win over Florida State remains the conference’s only victory in the College Football Playoff.
In the initial College Football Playoff rankings this season, Oregon came in at #4. The Ducks are the only Pac-12 team who made the Top 25, but they’re in the Top 4. So, theoretically, if the season ended today, they would be in. That means they have an inside track to reaching the CFP this season, right? Well, not necessarily. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Ducks have just a 3% chance to reach the Playoff. No other team in the conference has better than 0.1% chance. Even if Oregon wins out, it still only possesses a 30% chance, according to the Predictor. Why? Because of the soft schedule. While they’re currently in position for a Playoff spot, the Ducks don’t have an opportunity to bolster their resume. None of the teams they have left to play have less than three losses, and that includes any opponent they would face in the Pac-12 Championship. Utah (24) is the only team ranked in the Top 25 of FPI that the Ducks have left to play, and their other three opponents (Washington, Washington State and Oregon State) are all outside the Top 50. And their loss at Stanford on Oct. 2 gets worse by the week, as the Cardinal have lost three straight and have at least two games remaining where they will be underdogs, including 11.5-point dogs this week at home against Utah.
Oregon is the Pac-12’s only realistic chance to make the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2017 and the deck is stacked against them.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Being a Favorite is not their Favorite
Oregon has failed to cover nine straight as a favorite, the longest active streak in FBS, and that includes 0-6 ATS this season. But the Ducks have been good against Washington, covering 13 of the last 15 meetings since 2005. Washington is 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season and have failed to cover five straight as a home underdog, the longest active streak in FBS. Additionally, the Huskies are 9-17 ATS against AP Top-10 teams over the last 15 seasons, although this will be the first such game under second-year head coach Jimmy Lake. So far, a whopping 86% of the tickets and 91% of the money is on the Ducks, according to Action. If you’re looking for a totals trend, Washington games have gone under in seven of their eight contests this year.