Welcome to the first NFL edition of STAT Stack! In this issue, we focus on the NFL’s Opening Night game: The Dallas Cowboys traveling to Tampa to take on the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers.
TWO THINGS THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
September Fireworks?
Should we expect big numbers in Tampa in the season opener between these two squads? The Cowboys allowed a franchise-record 473 points in 2020 and surrendered 54 offensive touchdowns (20 rushing, 34 passing), while the Bucs scored a team-record 492 points and totaled 58 offensive touchdowns (16 rushing, 42 passing). Dallas allowed 33-plus points in half of their 2020 games, and in the 5 games Dak Prescott started in 2020, the Cowboys averaged 32.6ppg on offense. Prescott will make his much-anticipated return from the gruesome leg injury he suffered in Week 5 last season against the Giants, and he’ll do it with a fresh new contract in hand. Dallas signed Prescott to a four-year, $160M deal in the offseason, including a record-setting $66M signing bonus.
Tossing TDs
Despite his status as the GOAT, Tom Brady hasn’t always put up the biggest TD passing numbers. There have been 19 seasons in which he has started at least a dozen games, excluding only his rookie season in 2000 and an injury-shortened 2008 campaign. In 11 of those 19 seasons, he threw for less than 30 scores. His 40 TD tosses with the Bucs in 2020 was the second-highest single-season total of his career (trailing only his historic 2007 season, in which he threw 50 TD). Including last year’s four-game postseason run, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 11 consecutive games. With a talented receiving corps that includes Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski and company, Brady has an opportunity to reach the 40-TD mark for just the third time in his illustrious career.
Run it Back … to 2019
The Cowboys need to resurrect their running game in a big way if they are going to rebound from a disastrous 6-10 campaign. Combining an injury-riddled and inconsistent offensive line with an inefficient Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas finished 17th in the league in rushing yards per game (111.8) -- their lowest ranking in that category since 2013. Between 2014-19, the team ranked in the Top 10 in rushing yards each year. While Dallas does return its bookend tackles, LT Tyron Smith and RT La’el Collins (each of whom were hurt last season), they will be without All-Pro RG Zack Martin in this game after he tested positive for COVID this week. It also won’t be easy attacking the Buccaneers’ defense, top-ranked against the run each of the past two seasons.
TOP TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Super Bowl Hangover Myth
Defending Super Bowl champions are a combined 37-16-1 straight-up in their season opener after winning a title, and their record against the spread in those games is 27-23-4. Tom Brady has won seven Super Bowls and the previous six times he and his team opened defense of their title, those Patriots’ squads were 3-1-2 ATS in their season opener. Overall, in his career, Tom Brady 8-7-2 ATS in season-openers. However, Brady is 0-4 ATS when opening the season against … the Buffalo Bills. So, in season-opening games against teams not named the Bills, Brady is 8-3-2 ATS. Good news for Brady: the Cowboys are not named the Bills.
A Tale of Two Teams … and Two Totals
Including their four-game playoff run vs. Washington, the Saints, Packers and Chiefs, Bruce Arians’ team was 12-8 vs. the number in 2020. Meanwhile, the Cowboys were an NFL-worst 5-11 ATS. Dallas’ 16 games this past season averaged 54.3 points per contest. An interesting note about the total in this game: although 58% of the total bets have been placed on the OVER, the UNDER has attracted 59% of total money, so the biggest bets are on that side, according to the Action Network. The over/under for this game currently sits at 51.5.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Better With Time, Like a Fine Wine
After an inconsistent start of sorts, Tom Brady’s passing game began to click down the stretch, creating more chunk plays. In the first 11 games of the ‘20 season, Brady averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt and surpassed 8+ yards per attempt in only 3 games. But, in his final five regular-season outings, his yards per attempt and in his last 9 outings (including playoffs), there were six games in which he managed at least eight yards per attempt.
New Face, New Place, New Place on the Field
Atlanta’s Keanu Neal was Pro Football Focus’ 33rd-ranked safety in 2020. But now he’s a linebacker for the Dallas Cowboys, playing for new DC Dan Quinn, who was Neal’s head coach in Atlanta. The physical performer grades out well across the board in terms of run defense (67.9), rushing the passer (74.3) and coverage (66.2), and he’s no stranger to playing to LB: according to PFF, Neal lined up at LB 40% of the time in 2020, while also lining up at safety (32%) and CB (28%). Only the Texans allowed more yards per game on the ground in 2020 than the Cowboys, so they added Neal to be a guy who is comfortable roaming the entire field and make the big tackles.
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