The NFL's Worst ATS Team

Plus, the Raiders find themselves in a place they haven't been at this point in the season since 2016

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5-4) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-3), 8:20ET

Line: Chiefs -2.5, Total: 52

ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW

• A Chance to Make a Statement

In each of the past five seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West. The Raiders haven’t been ahead of the Chiefs in the division standings this late in the season since 2016, though the Chiefs would win the division that season by defeating the Raiders twice to win the tiebreaker between the pair of 12-4 squads. The Raiders haven’t won the West since 2002, when they went on to lose in the Super Bowl to the Tampa Bay Bucs. In order to get to five divisional titles for the Raiders -- like the Chiefs have in the past five years -- you have to go all the way back to 1985 (2002, 2001, 2000, 1990 and 1985 are the Raiders last five AFC West titles). During that time, the Raiders have called Los Angeles, Oakland, and Las Vegas home.

The Raiders also have not won a playoff game since that 2002 Super Bowl appearance run, making the postseason only once (losing to Houston in the 2016 Wild Card round) in the past 18 seasons. Despite all the distractions of former head coach Jon Gruden, and the unfortunate circumstances surrounding the departures of former first-round picks Damon Arnette and Henry Ruggs, the Raiders have managed to put together a nice start and find themselves tied with the Chargers at the top of the division. For a team that was projected to win around seven games, and given the turmoil, they have to be pleased with where they are right now. They would be ecstatic to come out of this week with a win and a potential solo lead atop the division. Can they win it for the first time in nearly 20 years? It’ll be an uphill climb given their remaining schedule -- all but one of their remaining games is against a team that currently has a winning record -- but to even be in this position at the halfway point has to be considered a victory.

TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW

• Fade the Chiefs … Still

We posted this last week, but it bears repeating since we’ve added another L to the tally: “If you decided on the morning of November 9, 2020, that you were going to start exclusively betting AGAINST the Kansas City Chiefs, congratulations. Since then, Kansas City has gone 2-14-1 against-the-spread in the regular season.” In their last 11 regular season games against AFC opponents, the Chiefs have covered just once (1-10). That stretch started with the Raiders, too, who covered in Las Vegas despite losing the games (Chiefs beat the Raiders 35-31 as 7.5-point favorites). The Raiders actually covered both games against Kansas City last season, winning outright in Arrowhead in their first meeting. That win by Las Vegas was the Chiefs only ATS loss in a six-game stretch. Despite the back-to-back ATS losses to the Raiders, Andy Reid has generally had success in this series, going 10-6 ATS as Chiefs head coach since 2013.

An interesting note about the Over/Under: in the last 10 matchups between these rivals, the Total has gone Over in each of the four games where the Raiders covered and the Under has hit in each of the six games where the Chiefs have covered.

According to Action Network, the public refuses to back off betting the Chiefs: 67% of the bets and 73% of the money is on Kansas City despite their ATS struggles. They are reporting some sharp action on the Raiders, however. And while 53% of the tickets are on the Over, including some sharp action, 66% of the handle is on the Under.

ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW

• Same Teams, but Very Different

The Chiefs team that we’ve seen this season hasn’t been what most people would have expected. They’ve struggled on offense and defense, and Patrick Mahomes hasn’t looked like the perennial MVP candidate that he usually does with career-worsts in passer rating (92.5) and INT percentage (2.8%). But since Andy Reid came to Kansas City in 2013, the Chiefs have a 13-3 record against Raiders. In the past six, all with Mahomes under center, they’ve gone 5-1. In those games Mahomes has thrown for 1,882 yards (313.7/game) with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. His 15 TDs are the most he’s thrown vs any opponent and he’s rushed for two touchdowns, as well; the Raiders are the only team that he’s run for multiple scores against. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in each of the six games with Mahomes starting and have averaged 35.0 points.

This Raiders defense is quite different than the one Mahomes has seen recently, however. Last season, the Raiders ranked third-worst in points allowed (29.9), seventh-worst in points per play (6.0) and had the third-fewest sacks in the league (21). This season, though, the Raiders have already tallied 21 sacks in eight games, half as many games as it took them to reach that number last season, and their 2.6 sacks per game rank 7th in the NFL. They’ve seen great returns already on free-agent acquisition Yannick Ngakoue, who has six sacks (tied for 12th in the NFL). Their 2019 fourth-round draft pick Maxx Crosby, who had 10 sacks in his rookie season before falling to seven in 2020, has emerged this season with five sacks and 20 QB hits -- he had 27 QB hits total in his first two seasons. Crosby trails only Myles Garrett in that category in 2021; Garrett has 23 hits but has played one more game than Crosby. The Raiders have five players who have recorded at least two sacks: in addition to Crosby and Ngakoue, Solomon Thomas (2.5), Quinton Jefferson (2.0) and Darius Philon (2.0) also have brought the QB down multiple times.

Getting to Mahomes has been a problem for the Raiders in the past. They have sacked him only six times in six games and three times they failed to drop him at all. They got to him three times in their first matchup last season, the only time they’ve defeated him and the Chiefs. So, in the five losses, they’ve sacked Mahomes three times total. This is a different Chiefs offensive line, though, and a different Patrick Mahomes. Over the previous three seasons, Mahomes had been sacked an average of 21.7 times per season (1.4 per game). This year, he’s been sacked 17 times in nine games (1.9 per game).

Additionally, over the past two seasons the Raiders have averaged less than one takeaway per game in each year (finishing 31st in that category in 2019 and 30th last season). While they haven’t evolved into a crazy ball-hawking defense, they are tied for 15th this year with 1.2 takeaways per game. In six previous matchups, Mahomes has coughed the ball up just four times (three interceptions, one lost fumble). That was a Mahomes who rarely turned the ball over, though, not the version this year that’s tied for second in the league with 12 giveaways (tied with Trevor Lawrence; Sam Darnold leads with 13). As a team, the Chiefs lead the NFL with 19 turnovers, averaging more than two per game.

The Raiders have struggled with Mahomes and the Chiefs over the past few years, but these are vastly different teams. They say old habits die hard, though, so is this a situation where the Chiefs find some success against a team that they usually dominate, or can the Raiders finally begin to turn the tide?

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