Super Bowl Preview: The Final Showdown
In-depth look at Bengals vs. Rams in a battle for NFL supremacy
NFC CHAMPION LOS ANGELES RAMS (15-5) VS AFC CHAMPION CINCINNATI BENGALS (13-7), 6:30ET
Line: Rams -4, Total: 48.5
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Important Matchups All Over the Field
For Bengals fans, the biggest concern going into the Super Bowl is how well the offensive line will hold up against the stout front four of the Los Angeles Rams. The biggest mismatch in this game appears to be the offensive lines of these two teams.
According to ESPN Analytics, Cincinnati’s team pass-block win rate of 49% was tied with the Steelers for the second worst in the league in the regular season (Dolphins were worse at 47%) and quarterback Joe Burrow took a league-high 51 sacks. Including playoffs, Burrow has been sacked a whopping 63 times this season, which amounts to more than three sacks absorbed per game. We’ll get to the Rams O-Line more in-depth in the next section, but for reference purposes, LA had the #1 pass-block win rate in the NFL this season, marking a huge discrepancy – Matthew Stafford has been sacked only 35 times in 20 games.
However, Cincinnati took a small step forward in the AFC Championship Game against Kansas City. After being pressured on at least 27.5% of his dropbacks in both the Wild Card against the Raiders and Divisional round against the Titans, Burrow faced pressure on just 23.8% of his dropbacks against the Chiefs, resulting in only one sack.
This was only the fourth time in 19 starts this season that Burrow did not take multiple sacks. Cincinnati is 7-0 in games this season when Burrow takes two sacks or less and 11-2 when he takes four sacks or less. The big number appears to be five – when Burrow is sacked 5+ times, Cincinnati is 2-4 (Burrow did not play in the team’s Week 18 loss against Cleveland). The Rams’ defense has recorded only 5+ sacks twice this season (Week 8 against Houston and Week 17 at Baltimore), but they are 4-0 in games when they record at least four sacks. They have yet to do that in the playoffs, though, recording a mere five total sacks in three postseason victories. Burrow has taken 12 sacks this postseason; two quarterbacks have taken 12 sacks in a postseason while winning a Super Bowl – Jim Plunkett (1980) and Bart Starr (1967) – but no quarterback has taken more than 12 in a postseason and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
Although the Rams defense hasn’t been recording sacks, that doesn’t mean they haven’t been generating pressure. After posting a 26.6% pressure rate in the regular season (according to Next Gen Stats), they’ve upped that mark to 31.7% in three postseason games. Aaron Donald continues to be three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, but the real change has come from the re-emergence of midseason trade acquisition Von Miller. The three-time First-Team All-Pro has recorded 15 QB pressures in the playoffs, which is tied for most among all defenders (49ers’ Nick Bosa) and has nearly doubled his pressure rate from 9.8% in the regular season to 18.4% in the playoffs.
So, how has Cincinnati managed to allow its quarterback to constantly hit his back while still making this run to the league’s Championship Game? Its defense, which we’ll get to in a moment, and an incredible offensive weaponry, led by wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The rookie has done a ton of damage on the outside, where (including playoffs) he has racked up 512 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on deep passes (20+ air yards) thrown outside the numbers, according to Next Gen Stats. Both of those yardage and TD totals are already the most by any player in the NGS era (since 2016) and he still has one game left to play. Chase is an incredible threat down the field, ranking second in yards on vertical routes with 687 this season, including 176 yards after the catch and 11 touchdowns. The Rams are exploitable on the outside as well, ranking in the middle of the pack in completion percentage on deep passes to the outside (16th) and in passer rating on those throws (17th), with a dismal 27th ranking in touchdowns allowed. But what really separates Chase is that he’s not a one-trick pony who runs only go-routes. No receiver had more receiving yards after the catch over expectation on short passes this regular season (fewer than 10 air yards) than Chase’s +163, which is also the most in the NGS era. Enter the Rams defense, which is 31st in the NFL in allowing YACOE, having missed 69 tackles in coverage this season. Their 2,200 passing yards allowed on short passes ranks 30th and opposing receivers are averaging 6.3 yards per catch on short passes, which is 24th in the league. Overall, missing tackles is a big problem for the Rams defense, which whiffed 119 times during the regular season, third-most among playoff teams (Steelers, 125, and Buccaneers, 120).
In his last five full games (including playoffs but not including Week 18 against Cleveland when he played just five snaps), Chase has averaged 134.0 receiving yards per game and 17.6 yards per catch. If the Rams decide to scheme their defense to take away Chase (possibly by shadowing him with three-time First Team All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey), Burrow has shown a willingness to let Tee Higgins beat the defense instead. Just last week, Higgins received 53.1% of Burrow’s targeted air yards, which was the highest percentage among all receivers last weekend, and he hauled in six of his 10 targets for 103 yards, including 43 yards after the catch (7.2 per reception).
Chase can beat the defense on both deep passes and short passes, and it would behoove the Bengals to use the short passes to both him and running back Joe Mixon. Including playoffs, Mixon has 26 catches over the last five games, which is a huge jump from just 25 catches over his previous 13 games. Mixon’s improvement as a receiver can help keep the Rams’ pash rush from being able to push up field. That’s a strategy that Cincinnati has used in the playoffs to help its struggling offensive line and it has been successful to this point. If the Bengals can continue to establish the short pass and screen game, it should allow Burrow time in the pocket to utilize Chase’s ability on deep balls, as well as his other weapons, including the aforementioned Higgins and fellow wideout Tyler Boyd, along with tight end C.J. Uzomah, who is expected to play despite spraining his MCL early in the AFC Championship game.
Cincinnati boasts one of the youngest and most exciting offenses in the NFL and gets a matchup with star-studded Rams defense that has the benefit of playing in its home stadium. The Rams defense boasts four First Team All-Pro defenders (Donald, Miller, Ramsey and Eric Weddle), four former first-round picks (the aforementioned Donald, Miller and Ramsey plus Leonard Floyd), three second-round picks (Weddle, along with Taylor Rapp and A’Shawn Robinson), one fourth-round pick (Greg Gaines), two seventh-round picks (Nick Scott and Travin Howard) and two undrafted free agents (Darious Williams and Troy Reeder), which has earned them the moniker of “Stars and Scrubs.” Will the “Stars” shine brightly under the big lights in LA for the Rams defense, or will the young Bengals exploit the “Scrubs” for their franchise’s first-ever Super Bowl victory? We can’t wait to find out.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
The Final Showdown
The Bengals have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season when it comes to covering the number with a current streak of seven straight ATS wins, including all three playoff victories, bringing them to 13-7 ATS (65%). The last time the Bengals failed to cover was over two months ago and that came in a Week 14 loss against the other NFC Championship team, San Francisco, on December 12. They are also 9-2 ATS (82%) versus teams with winning records this season. While the Bengals are technically the home team in this game due to the NFL’s alternating conference policy, it seems more useful to look at Cincinnati’s road numbers since this game will be played in the Rams’ home stadium. Including playoffs, the Bengals have been excellent on the road, going 8-2 ATS (80%), which is tied with Arizona for the second-best cover percentage in the league (Dallas is better at 8-1 ATS on road). They also boast a league-best +9.5 margin versus the number on the road. Over the past two seasons, Cincy is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Additionally, Cincinnati has leaned toward the Under, especially in road contests. Ten of its last 13 road games have gone Under the total (77%), including eight of 10 road games this season, which is the highest road Under percentage in the NFL (80%).
Despite reaching the Super Bowl and winning 15 games this season, the Rams are just .500 when it comes to covering the spread (10-10 ATS this season, including playoffs). They failed to cover last week against the 49ers in the NFC Championship, winning the game by three as a 3.5-point favorite, which puts them at 2-3 ATS in their last five games. However, that stretch was preceded by a four-game ATS winning streak, which makes the Rams 6-3 ATS over their past nine games overall. The team has also alternated Over and Under in each game dating back to Week 10, with the NFC Championship game going Under the total. While LA is 10-9-1 (53%) to the Over this season, it started the season with four straight Overs, putting the team at 6-9-1 (40%) to the Over in its last 16 games. Additionally, six of the last seven home games have gone Under (86%), and the Under is 19-8 (70%) in the past two seasons when the Rams are billed as the favorite.
If it seems strange the Rams had such a low cover percentage for a Super Bowl participant, it’s not unprecedented. Just last season, the Chiefs were 8-10 ATS going into the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay. When the Rams made the Super Bowl in the 2018 season, they entered at just 9-8-1 ATS. Teams that enter the Super Bowl with a better cover percentage than their opponent (which Cincinnati has over LA) have won and covered four consecutive Big Games. Over the past 10 seasons, the team that entered the Championship game with the better cover percentage has won and covered in six of the last nine (67%) chances (note that the 2017 Eagles and Patriots were tied in cover percentage, so that game isn’t included in the figure).
The spread has been mostly irrelevant in the Super Bowl, especially since 2009 – in the past 13 Super Bowls, the team that won the game also covered. Overall, 47 of the 55 previous Super Bowl winners have also covered (only six teams lost and covered, and two Super Bowls ended in a push). Underdogs have been successful, as well, winning outright in seven of the past 11 Super Bowls (64%) that had a favorite and an underdog (the 2014 season ended with a pick ’em Super Bowl between the Patriots and Seahawks). Underdogs have covered nine of the past 13 (69%) such Super Bowls, as well. The Under has hit in three straight Super Bowls, but that proceeded a stretch of five Overs hitting in six seasons (2012-2017). Overall, the Under is 10-7 (59%) in the past 17 Super Bowls since the 2004 season. Dating back to 2002, when the Total for the Big Game is set at 48 points or more, the Under is 8-2 (80%).
This year’s Super Bowl set to be the most bet on sporting event in history with the proliferation of legal gambling in states across the country with estimates putting the figure over $7.5 BILLION expected to be wagered (both legally and unauthorized) with at least $1 Billion expected to be bet legally. As of Saturday night, Action Network reports that the Rams are getting the majority of the tickets (59%) and an even bigger majority of the total money (73%). While the public loves the Over (62% of the tickets), the professionals are leaning toward the Under (80% of the money). These numbers could change a lot on Sunday, however, with a mad dash of people looking to get a little skin in the game before kickoff.