STAT Stack First Edition: Ohio State/Minnesota
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OK, enough prologue … on to the content! Although the college football season officially got underway last weekend, tonight is when we have the first matchups that include teams from the Top 25. In this note, we’re going to focus on the opening game for the national runner-up from last season and current 4th-ranked team in the nation, Ohio State.
#4 OHIO STATE (-14) @ MINNESOTA, 8PM (ET)
TWO THINGS THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Big Shoes to Fill for Ohio State
In Chicago, Bears fans are clamoring to see former Ohio State QB Justin Fields take the field over veteran Andy Dalton, but it doesn’t seem like they’re going to get their wish in Week 1. But the spotlight is first going to be shone on the guy who’s been tabbed to replace Fields in the Scarlet and Silver: CJ Stroud.
Stroud, a redshirt freshman who saw limited action in last season’s COVID-shortened season, did not throw a single pass. In fact, there is no QB on the Ohio State roster who has ever thrown a pass in a college game. Stroud was the #3 ranked QB in the 2020 recruiting class, behind only Alabama’s Bryce Young and Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei (more on them in Saturday’s STAT Stack). Though Stroud’s biggest play last season was a 48-yard rushing TD against Michigan State, he is much more known for his throwing ability. In high school, Stroud threw for over 6,000 yards in his junior and senior seasons and averaged just 1 interception for every 50 passes that he threw.
Stroud has some incredibly big shoes to fill: consider how the past two Ohio State first-year starting quarterbacks — Dwayne Haskins in 2018 and Justin Fields a year later — have fared since Ryan Day's arrival: 91 combined touchdowns, just 11 interceptions, and 8,104 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt. Stroud will take over huge expectations along with the keys to the kingdom.
Big Ten Dominance
Ohio State has been incredibly dominant against conference opponents over the past several years. In fact, it’s been almost 3 years since Ohio State's last Big Ten loss, a 49-20 shocker against Purdue in 2018, and it's been a decade since the Buckeyes' last season with more than one loss in conference play. Their current head coach, Ryan Day, is in his third season after replacing Urban Meyer, which means he has never lost to a Big Ten team during his tenure.
In a sport owned by the power four — OSU, Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma — the Buckeyes have a case for being the most dominant regular-season team of them all since 2012, especially when given the Big Ten's overall depth compared to, say, the ACC. To get back into this year's College Football Playoff and play for the program's first national title since 2014, OSU will have to get past Oregon, Penn State and the winner of the Big Ten West, which has two rivals (Wisconsin and Iowa) more than capable of pulling off the upset on a single Saturday in December.
TOP TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Road Warriors
As mentioned above, Ryan Day’s Buckeyes have been dominant against Big Ten opponents, but when it comes to covering the spread, they are MUCH better on the road. Over the past two seasons, OSU is 6-1 against the number in road games against Big Ten opponents, as they will be in Minneapolis tonight.
OSU Dominance Straight-up … But Not So Much ATS
Minnesota has not beaten Ohio State in over 20 years and has lost 11 straight to the Buckeyes. However, in the past 7 meetings dating back to 2007, all of which were won outright by OSU, Minnesota is 5-2 ATS vs. the Buckeyes, including 3 straight covers since 2014.
The Computers Love the Buckeyes … and So Does the Public
We checked out several sites that run computer simulations to predict games – Sportsline, NumberFire & Team Rankings – and their consensus was clear: go with Ohio State. The average simulations had Ohio State winning by around 17 points, more than enough to cover the 14-points they need.
It’s not just the computers: Joe Public is in love with OSU, as well. According to the Action Network, 81% of the bets placed on this game are on the Buckeyes, and 85% of the total money on the game has also been on Ohio State. Typically, with action so heavily weighted to one side, we would see the line move in favor of the heavily bet team. However, the line opened at OSU -14 and has remained there so far. Perhaps we’ll see a movement as we get closer to kick off, but for now, despite the heavy money, Vegas is holding strong with the two TD advantage over the Gophers.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
How does Minnesota, which has lost to Ohio State 11 straight times and is a 14-point underdog in this matchup, keep the game close? They must control the tempo; they must hit big plays; and, they must get after Ohio State’s inexperienced freshman QB. Good news for the Gophers: two of those happen to fall in their favor. Their biggest offensive weapon is senior RB Mohamed Ibrahim, who has the longest current active streak in FBS for consecutive 100+ yard rushing games (8). Ibrahim can pick up the tough yards after contact, which is what makes him such a difficult assignment -- he led the Big Ten last year with 37 missed tackles forced.
While Ibrahim’s ability to grind out the tough yards is a massive key to the Gophers’ success, they’re going to need to hit on some chunk plays to stay in the contest. Enter: senior WR Chris Autman-Ball. Autman-Ball led the Big Ten in 2020 on average yards downfield per target (16.1) and had 10 catches of 20+ yards. He will need to create some separation from the OSU secondary and the rest of the Minnesota pass-catchers must make one major improvement over last season: stop dropping the football. Minnesota receivers dropped 10.9% of veteran QB Tanner Morgan’s pass attempts in 2020, a giant leap over the 4.7% dropped-pass rate in 2019.
Speaking of Morgan, the biggest advantage that Minnesota has in this game is experience from its quarterback. Ohio State is the only team in the entire FBS that does not have a QB on its roster with a pass attempt. On the other side, the Gopher signal-caller has taken over 1,800 collegiate snaps and is the current active Big Ten leader in career TD passes (46).
The one key not working in Minnesota’s favor is getting pressure on CJ Stroud. Ohio State returns its stout pair of bookend tackles, Thayer Munford and Nicholas Petit-Frere, who did not allow a single sack in 2020. Both Munford and Petit-Frere played 264 snaps last season without seeing their QB hit the turf because of them, and they led the Big Ten in that category. Minnesota will need to find a creative way to generate pressure off the edge, because beating those two in one-on-ones is an extremely tall order.
Thanks for subscribing to STAT Stack! We hope you enjoyed our first edition, and you can look forward to upcoming editions over the next week:
Saturday, 9/4 -- College Football Preview (Penn State vs. Wisconsin, Alabama vs. Miami, and Georgia vs. Clemson)
Thursday, 9/9 -- NFL’s Opening Night Preview (Cowboys vs. Bucs)