Welcome to another edition of STAT Stack! In this issue, we’ll be taking a look at the three biggest games on the Saturday slate.
#12 PENN STATE @ #19 WISCONSIN (-5.5), 12PM (ET)
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
A Pair of Intriguing Signal-Callers
Both of these teams are coming off of an up-and-down COVID-filled 2020 that was not representative of the recent history of either school. Penn State started a shocking 0-5 after being decimated by injury and COVID opt-outs. The Lions rebounded to win their final four games, but fell well-short of expectations. Wisconsin started 2-0 before losing three-straight, only to bounce-back and win their final two games to finish 4-3. They too, suffered numerous injuries and dealt with COVID consequences.
Despite all of that, both teams come into this opening week ranked in the Top 25 and return their starters at quarterback. Let’s start with Penn State’s redshirt senior Sean Clifford and the big question that faces the Lions: which Clifford is returning? The one who was a record-breaker in 2019 and made all the QB watch lists in 2020 as a result, or the one who was plagued by turnovers and inconsistency last season and even lost his starting job midway through the season, only to earn it back after one week? Clifford spent this offseason in a training program designed to make him “bulletproof,” according to Penn State strength coach Dwight Galt. The program was designed for improved performance as much as injury prevention, Galt said. “Sean has achieved some really good things in the weight room,” said Galt. “He benches 350, he’s a 300-pound cleaner, and he squatted just short of 500. We’ve had great success with our quarterbacks making plays with their legs, and that’s near and dear to me. I have to make sure that his body can handle any expectation we have on the field.” Starting on the road against a ranked Big Ten opponent should give a clearer picture into whether 2019 Sean Clifford or 2020 Clifford is the real version.
On the other side, Wisconsin returns it’s young, star redshirt sophomore QB, Graham Mertz. If you’re not familiar with the name Graham Mertz, his is a name worth knowing — he was a 4-star recruit and ranked as the best pocket passer in the class of 2019 by one service, and another service described him as Wisconsin’s “most hyped QB since Russell Wilson,” although he lost the starting job to Jack Coan as a true freshman and took a redshirt. Mertz came out blazing last season, going 20-21 with a school-record-tying 5 TDs in a 38-point drubbing of Illinois, but tested positive for Covid the next day, was out 21 days, and then dealt with a shoulder injury and a mild concussion upon his return. We’ve yet to really see what Mertz can do, and he’ll be thrust into a pretty big spotlight to kickoff 2021.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
The Roaring Lions
Dating back to 2005, Penn State and Wisconsin have met 9 times and the Lions are 7-2 against-the-spread in those contests, including 4-0 in the last 4 meetings, which includes 2013 game where Penn State was a 25-point underdog at Wisconsin and won the game outright (31-24). Interestingly, these teams have met 15 times since 1997 and in every one of those matchups, the team that won the game also covered the spread. So, if you feel good about Penn State +5.5, consider sprinkling some on the moneyline (PSU +180).
Line Movement
This game opened with Wisconsin at -3.5 and has since moved to the current line of -5.5. The public is backing Wisconsin, but just barely: according to Action Network, 54% of the tickets are on Wisconsin and 51% of the money is, as well. The computers are split on this matchup: Sportsline says Wisconsin covers in 55% of their simulations, while NumberFire has PSU covering 60% of the time.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Penn State’s New OC
Penn State brought in a new offensive coordinator in the offseason, Mike Yurcich, who brings an exciting offense with him. He spent 6 seasons as offensive coordinator under Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State, where his teams averaged 38.7 points and 479 yards a game, and where he coached Mason Rudolph, who broke many records before moving on to the NFL. He also worked with Justin Fields at Ohio State in 2019 and last season he was the offensive coordinator at Texas, where he coached Sam Ehlinger and led the Longhorns to 42.7 points per game, which trailed only Alabama and Clemson among Power 5 programs. Look for Yurcich, who became available when Tom Herman and his staff were fired, to work with QB Sean Clifford on how to better handle defensive pressure. In his career, Clifford is completing 65.8% of his passes with 30 TD and 7 INT when not pressured compared to 42.1%, 11 TD and 9 INT when pressured. Also look for Yurcich to lean heavily on his best offensive weapon: senior WR Jahan Dotson. Dotson was one of three FBS players in 2020 who had over 800 yards receiving and over 150 punt return yards (DeVeonta Smith, Alabama & Calvin Austin, Memphis). One of the others, Smith, won the Heisman Trophy. Dotson is a big-play waiting to happen, as evidenced by his five career TD catches of 60+ yards, and led the Big Ten last season in catches of 20+ yards (15) and total yards after the catch (375). Penn State will need explosive plays to win this game, a game that head coach James Franklin desperately needs to start changing the perception that he can’t win big games away from home. Franklin’s teams are 1-13 on the road against ranked opponents in his career.
#1 ALABAMA (-19.5) @ #14 MIAMI, 3:30PM (ET)
TWO THINGS THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Replacing or Reloading?
One obstacle that Alabama faces every season is how to replace all of the talent that inevitably leaves to go play on Sundays, but they’ve proven to be pretty darn good at overcoming that. This season will be no different: Alabama returns just 3 starters on offense and just 56 percent of their production from last season, fifth least among Power 5 teams, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The defense is in better shape, with 9 starters coming back, but their defense was ranked uncharacteristically low in 2020, falling to 32nd in the nation in total yards allowed (352 opponent YPG). Much of that can be attributed to schedule, as they faced 11 SEC opponents, plus Notre Dame and Ohio State, but Nick Saban will undoubtedly be looking for an improvement on that side of the ball.
Miami, on the other hand, returns 91 percent of its production from last season, fourth most among Power 5 teams, which includes a whopping 19 starters on offense and defense from 2020.
The biggest question mark for Alabama is how quickly will star sophomore QB Bryce Young rise to the occasion. Despite having just 22 career passing attempts under his belt, Young is considered one of the Heisman Trophy frontrunners. According to Vegas oddsmakers, he’s the third most-likely winner behind Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler and Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei (more on him later in this post). Part of that is due to the fact that Alabama’s starting QB is nearly always going to be in the conversation. But the other piece is that Young was the nation's top-ranked dual-threat quarterback recruit in 2020, a five-star prospect who was selected as the 2019 High School Quarterback of the Year by the National Quarterback Club. But, he will be making his first career start against the Canes, and the expectations on his shoulders are extremely high — how well will the 20-year-old signal-caller handle the pressure?
On the other side, D’Eriq King couldn’t be more different from an experience standpoint — he’s 4 years older than Young. In fact, King’s freshman year in college football, 2016 (when he was a WR for the Houston Cougars), is the same year that Bryce Young was a freshman … in HIGH SCHOOL. This will technically be King’s sixth-year in the college game, because he took a redshirt in 2019 and the NCAA created a COVID rule last season that allowed him to retain an extra year of eligibility.
“Neutral” Site?
This game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons, which is technically a neutral-site game. However, Alabama has shown itself to be quite comfortable at “The Benz” with a 5-0 all-time record in the stadium, which is the best of any team since the building opened in 2017. Plus, Alabama is 10-0 under Nick Saban in season-opening neutral-site games and the school hasn’t lost a season-opener in any venue in over 20 years (2001 vs. UCLA).
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Line Movement
Alabama opened as a 17.5-point favorite and the line has continued to move in their favor, currently sitting at 19.5. Under Nick Saban (since 2007), in regular season games where the Tide were between a 17 and 24-point favorite, Alabama is 21-9 ATS, including 10-2 in their last 12 such matchups.
The Public, No Surprise, Loves the Reigning National Champs
The money is coming in heavy on Alabama, which is not a huge surprise considering the Tide are the current National Champions and #1 ranked team in the nation. According to Action Network, 75% of the tickets and total money has come in on the Tide, so far. The computers, however, lean towards Miami at the current number and seem to think 17.5 was a better line for Alabama. NumberFire has Miami covering the 19.5 in 51.2% of their simulations and SportsLine has the Canes beating the number in 53% of sims.
One interesting note about the public betting trends revolves around the over/under, which is currently at 61.5 (opened at 64.5). 56% of the bets placed have been on the UNDER but 74% of the total money bet has been on the OVER, an indicator of big money coming in on that side.
Alabama is also attracting considerable money to win it all again this season. At BetRivers Sportsbook, 50% of the bets on the odds to win the national championship are on Alabama (+260), more than six times more bets than any other team. More money has been bet on Alabama to win the national title than any other team at BetMGM and DraftKings, too.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Miami will be leaning heavily on veteran QB D’Eriq King in this game, and one area where King will have to improve over last season is how he deals with facing a very tough Alabama front seven. According to Pro Football Focus, King completed 27-of-60 passes (45 percent) for 381 yards with two touchdowns when under pressure, which equated to a 48.2% passing grade. How does that compare to when King is kept clean? According to PFF, King completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 2,302 yards with 21 touchdowns and five interceptions when facing no pressure, grading him out as a 92.4% passer — fifth-best in the country, trailing Florida’s Kyle Trask, OU’s Spencer Rattler, UCF’s Dillon Gabriel, and UNC’s Sam Howell. One weapon that King can use when he faces pressure is his legs; according to PFF, King finished the 2020 season with 297 rushing yards while scrambling, eighth-most in the country amongst QBs.
In order to beat the #1 team in the country, King is going to have to have a near flawless performance. But, with his talent, ability and experience, it’s not out of the question that he could pull it off — and he might just be the best QB Nick Saban has ever faced in a season-opener.
#5 GEORGIA @ #3 CLEMSON (-3), 7:30PM (ET)
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Battle of the Big Dawgs … and Cats
With Clemson and Georgia both landing in the AP Preseason Top 5, their showdown in Charlotte will be the tenth season-opening matchup between Top-5 opponents, and first since 2017. Interestingly, only three of the previous nine have been one-score games, with the last coming in 2004 between Miami and Florida State. Clemson is 9-6 in AP Top-5 matchups, fifth-best among teams that have played in 10 such games all-time, while Georgia is 3-9 in AP Top-5 matchups, which is third-worst. Georgia also has the nation’s longest active losing streak in AP Top-5 matchups (lost 4 straight). The Bulldogs are 1-4 in those matchups under Kirby Smart, with its lone such coming win in the 2018 Rose Bowl vs Oklahoma. Eight of Clemson’s 9 wins in AP Top-5 matchups have come with Dabo Swinney as head coach. The only head coaches with more wins in AP Top-5 matchups in the Poll Era (since 1936) are Nick Saban, Barry Switzer, Bobby Bowden, and Woody Hayes.
Georgia hasn’t lost a season opener since 2013 at Clemson (lost 38-35; won 7 straight openers since). And Clemson hasn’t lost a season opener since 2014 at Georgia (lost 45-21; won 6 straight openers since) – its only season-opening loss under Dabo Swinney. Since that 2014 loss, Clemson has won 24 straight regular-season games against non-conference opponents, the 2nd-longest active streak in FBS (Alabama, 48 straight); that includes 10 straight regular-season wins over SEC foes.
While this is a neutral-site game, Clemson has quite a bit of experience playing at this venue: the Tigers are 7-1 all-time at Bank of America Stadium, with a 6-0 record in ACC Championship Games played there. Georgia last played at the venue in 2014, beating Louisville 37-14 in the Belk Bowl.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Sharp Action on Clemson
The line for this game opened at Clemson -4 and has settled around 3, 3.5 depending on the book. According to Action Network, 54% of the total bets are on Georgia but 59% of the money is on Clemson, and they have also tracked sharp action on the Tigers. The service also says the line for this game should be closer to Clemson -5 (according to their power ratings), meaning getting the Tigers around 3 is a relative bargain.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
A Week 1 Game Can’t Be Must-Win … Can It?
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, this game is projected to have the largest impact on the Playoff field of any game this season (12% adjusted leverage). Clemson currently has a 78% chance to reach the Playoff – the best of any team – while Georgia is fifth with a 28% chance. With a win, Clemson’s playoff chances go up to 86%, while a loss drops them down to 59%. For Georgia, a win increases their playoff chances by nearly 20% — up to 47% — while a loss only drops them down to a 20% chance. So, a Georgia win would have the biggest possible impact on the Playoff — it would increase Georgia’s chances of making it by 19% and also decrease Clemson’s chances by 19%. Not only is this game extremely impactful from a Playoff standpoint, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the pregame matchup quality for the game is 98.2 (on a 100-point scale), which is the highest of any game this season.
It’s All About the QBs
As is becoming a theme in STAT Stack, and football in general, it really comes down to the quarterback play. Like in the other big games on Saturday, this matchup also features a very intriguing QB battle. For Clemson, D.J. Uiagalelei takes over as QB1 for the departed #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence. In his two starts last season, “Big Cinco”, as Uiagalelei is known, threw for 781 passing yards, the most in a player’s first two starts in Clemson history and the third-most over any two-game span in school history. Although he has the second-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy, Pro Football Focus ranked him as just the eighth-best returning QB in the country, saying “when Trevor Lawrence was out with COVID-19, Uiagalelei impressed in spot starts as a true freshman. He earned an 83.6 passing grade with five big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays in those two games against Boston College and Notre Dame.” But, they also noted that Uiagalelei has some mechanical issues with his throwing motion that forced him to make several inaccurate throws. It will be interesting to see if and how he adjusted that motion in the offseason.
On the other side, Georgia returns redshirt junior JT Daniels, who transferred from USC after the 2019 season. Daniels posted a Total QBR of 89 with a 10/2 TD/INT ratio in his four starts last season. He averaged 10.3 yards per attempt in those games, which ranked second among Power 5 players with at least 75 pass attempts last season, behind only Alabama’s Mac Jones (11.2).
Defense Wins Championships
Nine defensive starters are back for Clemson, including all four defensive linemen from a unit that tied for the FBS lead with 46 sacks in 2020. The Tigers return 85% of their defensive production – a big reason why ESPN’s FPI is predicting they will have the best defense in college football this season.
Conversely, Georgia returns just 50% of its defensive production (fourth-least in FBS) – but FPI still predicts the Bulldogs will have the third-best defensive unit this season, behind Clemson and Alabama.
Thanks for reading STAT Stack! Make sure to subscribe so that you never miss an issue — we send out reports multiple times per week on all of the biggest games. Look out for our first NFL report on Thursday when we break down the opening game of the season, the Super Bowl Champion Bucs vs. the Dallas Cowboys.