Saturday Betting Guide
Betting trends for 7 college football games, including the rarity of a Top 10 team as a touchdown underdog to an unranked opponent
Last Saturday we had just two matchups that featured ranked teams facing one another. This week, we don’t have any. In fact, only two teams ranked in the Top 10 have games where they are less than a 20-point favorite (#8 Oklahoma State and #10 Oregon are both underdogs). Because of that, we thought it would be helpful to focus on the gambling aspect of this week rather than take deep-dives into games that are unlikely to have a major impact on the College Football Playoff picture. That way, we can also tackle more than our usual three-game slate. Here we go:
#3 OKLAHOMA (7-0) AT KANSAS (1-5), 12PM (ET)
Line: Sooners -38.5, Total: 66.5
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Wow, Kansas, Really?
Oklahoma is 16-24 against-the-spread as a double-digit favorite under Lincoln Riley (since 2017). However, the Sooners are 7-6 ATS under Riley when favored by 30 or more points and have covered four of the last five such contests.
For Kansas, this will be the 104th straight game in which the Jayhawks are an underdog in conference play, the longest active streak in FBS by more than 80 games. UNLV and UConn are tied for the 2nd-longest such streaks at 23. Kansas is 0-5-1 ATS this season, one of only five teams in the country without an ATS win this season (joining Indiana, Clemson, Missouri and New Mexico). Kansas has failed to cover 7 straight home games as an underdog, the 2nd-longest active streak in FBS behind Akron (11 straight).
Currently, according to Action Network, 89% of the bets and 98% of the money has been wagered on the Sooners. With numbers that stark, it’s likely that either most precincts haven’t reported yet or there isn’t a ton of action on the game. It can be tough for Vegas to generate a lot of action on games that have spreads that get past 30 points. As far as the total, we do see some interesting numbers: 51% of the tickets are on the under, but 58% of the money is on the over. Despite the disparity favoring the over, Action is reporting sharp action on the under.
NORTHWESTERN (3-3) AT #6 MICHIGAN (6-0), 12PM (ET)
Line: Wolverines -23.5, Total: 51
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Ain’t No Rest for the Wicked
Michigan is 5-1 against the number this season, its best cover percentage through six games under Jim Harbaugh (since 2015). However, the team is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games with more than six days’ rest, including 4-8 ATS under Harbaugh, according to ESPN.
Northwestern is 33-18 ATS as a road underdog under Pat Fitzgerald (since 2006), including 14-4 ATS since 2015. Only Purdue (15-4 ATS) has been better since 2015 among teams with at least 15 such games. Additionally, the Wildcats are 20-9 ATS in road games and 11-4-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2015. Finally, against Big Ten opponents, Northwestern is 25-12 ATS in conference games over the last 5 seasons.
The public and the pros are both backing Michigan in this one and eschewing Fitzgerald’s track record. So far, 53% of the tickets are on the Wolverines, and 75% of the money has gone that direction. Action Network is also reporting sharp action on the over in the game, despite 63% of the tickets and 56% of the money being wagered on the under.
ILLINOIS (2-5) AT #7 PENN STATE (5-1), 12PM (ET)
Line: Nittany Lions -24, Total: 45.5
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Dueling Trends for the Lions…
Penn State is 4-20-1 against-the-spread following a loss under James Franklin (since 2014). However, they have covered three straight against Illinois and five of their last six as a favorite. Finally, the Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a double-digit favorite, while Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last six as a double-digit underdog.
Penn State is attracting both the tickets (64%) and the money (80%) in this matchup, though Action Network has one signal favoring Illinois. When the road team is an underdog of at least 7 points, the game’s total is below 48.5, and the game is a regular-season matchup between conference opponents, the visiting team has covered 59% of the time over a span of the last 669 such games across all of college football, including 9-2 this season. As far as the total, Action Network has reported sharp action on the under. That makes sense because each of Illinois’ last five games have gone under and four of Penn State’s six games have cashed on the under as well. One final note: Penn State covered all four of those games where the total went under and failed to cover in the two that went over.
#8 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0) AT IOWA ST. (4-2), 3:30PM (ET)
Line: Cyclones -7, Total: 47
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Interesting Underdog
Despite being ranked in the Top 10 and coming off a big win over Texas last Saturday, OK State is a touchdown underdog in Ames this weekend. If the number holds until kickoff, this would be the 3rd instance that an AP Top 10 team has been an underdog of 6+ points against an unranked opponent since 1978. In each of the previous instances, USC was the unranked favorite and they covered both times. As far as this Cowboys team, they have covered 4 straight games. Additionally, going back to 2016, OK State has covered 14 of its last 17 games as an underdog (regular and postseason). For Iowa State, the team is 15-8 ATS against ranked opponents under Matt Campbell (since 2016), including 5-2 ATS against AP Top 10 teams.
In addition to the spread trends, there are some recent trends that favor the under in this matchup. The under has hit in 10 of the last 13 Oklahoma State road games; plus, in 11 of the last 15 games where Iowa State was facing a ranked opponent, including each of the last five, the under cashed.
The public likes the highly ranked road dog in this one, with 66% of the tickets on the Cowboys and 59% of the money. However, Action Network is reporting sharp action on the Cyclones, including two of their top college football betting experts.
#10 OREGON (5-1) AT UCLA (5-2), 3:30PM (ET)
Line: Bruins -1, Total: 60.5
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Battle of Bad ATS Teams
The trends for this game aren’t pretty for either team. Oregon is 1-5 ATS this season, including 4 straight ATS losses, and they’ve failed to cover six straight conference games. UCLA’s mark against Pac-12 opponents at home hasn’t been great, either. They’ve failed to cover the last three in a row and are 5-7-1 ATS overall under Chip Kelly (since 2018). The Bruins are also 2-8 as a home favorite under Kelly.
When this line was first posted (prior to last weekend’s games), it was the Ducks who were favored by three points. However, it was almost immediately bet down to a pick ’em, and by the following day UCLA had become the favorite. So it makes sense when you look at the numbers at Action Network and see that 56% of the tickets have been placed on UCLA and 80% of the money has followed the Bruins.
TENNESSEE (4-3) AT #4 ALABAMA (6-1), 7PM (ET)
Line: Crimson Tide -25, Total: 68
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Bama Dominance vs. Tennessee Impotence
Alabama has covered eight straight games as a home favorite, the longest active streak in FBS, according to ESPN. They are also 10-4 ATS under Nick Saban (since 2007) against Tennessee, have covered 10 of their last 13 conference games and are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite. Plus, when the Tide are favored by at least 20 points, they’ve covered seven of the last eight.
On the other side, Tennessee has failed to cover 14 of its last 20 games against AP Top-5 teams dating back to 2009. Current coach Josh Heupel is 1-4 ATS in his career against AP Top-15 teams (at UCF and Tennessee), although none of those games came against Top-5 opponents. The Volunteers are also 6-14 ATS as a double-digit underdog dating back to 2015. This will be just the 2nd time in Heupel’s career that he is a double-digit underdog; it never happened in his time at UCF, but Tennessee was a 19-point road dog at Florida last month and lost 38-14.
Although Action Network is reporting sharp action on Tennessee and their model projection says that the Volunteers should be closer to a 19-point underdog than the current number of 24, the tickets and money are on the Tide: 63% of bets and 66% of money is on the home favorite.
#5 OHIO STATE (5-1) AT INDIANA (2-4), 7:30PM (ET)
Line: Ohio State -21, Total: 59.5
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Big Spread = Big Problems for Hoosiers
As a road favorite of at least 20 points, Ohio State has covered 10 of its last 15. It has also won 29 of its last 30 such contests straight-up since 1997; the only loss came at Iowa in 2017, arguably one of the worst losses of all-time. The Buckeyes were favored by 20.5 points and got blown out 55-24, meaning they failed to cover the spread by 51.5 points. Indiana has only been a home underdog of at least 20 points in six games since 1998, going 2-4 ATS in those games. In four of those six, the opponent was Ohio State, and Indiana is 1-3 ATS versus the Buckeyes in those games.
Ohio State opened as less than a 20-point favorite, between 18.5-19.5 depending on the book, but has been quickly bet up to the current number. According to Action, a whopping 88% of the bets and 95% of the money have been wagered on the Buckeyes, and that includes sharp action. At one point, the Hoosiers were as low as an 11-point underdog, but that was on a long-term line that was posted before starting QB Michael Penix got hurt two weeks ago against Penn State. Penix will not play in this game.