#12 NOTRE DAME (3-0) vs #18 WISCONSIN (1-1) 12PM (ET)
LINE: WISCONSIN -6.5, TOTAL: 45
*Game being played at Soldier Field in Chicago
TWO THINGS THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Brian Kelly Approaching History
Notre Dame moved to 3-0 last Saturday with a win over Purdue, but more importantly, the victory put Brian Kelly on the doorstep of Irish immortality -- he’s currently tied with the legendary Knute Rockne (1918-30) for most victories in program history with 105. However, there is a caveat: the NCAA ordered the Irish to vacate 21 wins from the 2012 and 2013 seasons as part of sanctions related to academic misconduct and denied a Notre Dame appeal in February 2018. So, as far as the NCAA is concerned, Kelly is 84-39, not 105-18. Either way, Notre Dame is 36-5 since the start of the 2018 season and trails only Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State in terms of winning percentage during that stretch. His nine 10-win seasons since 2007 are tied for third-most by any coach in the FBS in that time frame (Alabama’s Nick Saban has 13 and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney has 10).
Added Incentive
Notre Dame starting QB Jack Coan is very familiar with Wisconsin … considering he was a Badger from 2016-2020. After sitting on the bench for his first two seasons in Madison, Coan earned the nod as the Badgers’ starter in 2019, leading the team to a 10-3 regular season and a Rose Bowl berth (28-27 loss to Oregon). Expected to start in 2020, Coan broke his foot before the season started, and Wisconsin turned to their future starter, Graham Mertz. With Mertz now leading the team, Coan graduated from Wisconsin and transferred to Notre Dame. Now, he gets a chance to prove to the Badgers that he was the guy all along -- something some Badgers fans were saying after Mertz’s struggles in a loss to Penn State.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Pros Jumped on Wisconsin Early
Books that opened this game last week started this line at Wisconsin -3, and books that opened the game this week started it at Wisconsin -5 … but all books moved it to -6.5 (some even briefly posted -7) after the professionals jumped on Wisconsin quickly at those early numbers. However, the move to +6.5/7 attracted some pros to hit on Notre Dame, and it seems the number has now settled. This is a game where some bettors are looking to hit a middle: that is, bet both Wisconsin at the early number and Notre Dame at the late one and hope that it falls in between, paying out both sides.
Follow the Money
According to Action Network, 70% of the tickets are on the Irish, as is 54% of the money. Additionally, 90% of the moneyline bets in this game are on Notre Dame (+195), but 63% of the total handle is on the Badgers (-230). It’s not surprising to see so much action on the Notre Dame moneyline: Irish are 3-0, ranked higher than Wisconsin, and the game is being played at a neutral site. That’s a perfect recipe for the public to jump on an underdog, but the money totals tell us that the sharper bettors are still backing Wisconsin, both on the spread and the moneyline.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Past vs. Present
Above, we noted that Jack Coan is a former Badger who was replaced after injury by younger signal-caller Graham Mertz. Now, the two will go head-to-head. Mertz struggled badly in Wisconsin’s loss vs. Penn State in Week 1, earning a passing grade of 44.9 and making four “turnover-worthy” throws, according to Pro Football Focus. Now, he faces a Notre Dame defense that is among the best in country. PFF ranks the Irish as the 11th best defense and includes safety Kyle Hamilton, regarded as one of the nation’s top defenders and a potential top-5 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
On the other side, Coan gets a crack at revenge against his former school. However, he’s going to have to be better than he was last week in a 27-13 win over Purdue. On passes that traveled 10+ yards down-the-field, Coan had five “QB-fault” incompletions on 15 throws, according to PFF. But it wasn’t all on Coan -- Irish receivers dropped five passes and their offense allowed pressure on just over 40% of Coan’s dropbacks.
Both quarterbacks will need to be better than they have been so far this season -- and the game might come down to which one plays better: the current Badger, or the former Badger.
#7 TEXAS A&M (3-0) vs #16 ARKANSAS (3-0) 3:30PM (ET)
LINE: TEXAS A&M -5.5, TOTAL: 47
*Game being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
We’re Going Streaking!
Although not a matchup that immediately jumps to mind when you think “SEC Rivalry,” this matchup has been very entertaining over the past several meetings, despite Texas A&M’s nine straight wins over Arkansas. Five of the last seven games between these squads have been one-score games, with three going into overtime. But the nine-game winning streak over the Hogs isn’t the only streak that the Aggies will put on the line on Saturday. Texas A&M has won its last 11 games dating back to last season; the Aggies lost to Alabama in their second game in 2020, and Bama is the only team with a longer active winning streak (17 straight). A&M has also won seven-straight against SEC teams; only Alabama has a longer active streak, again (12). Additionally, the Aggies have won six straight neutral-site games; only Appalachian State has a longer active streak (7).
Arkansas has a streak going of its own … but not a good one. The Razorbacks have lost 21 games in a row against undefeated AP Top 10 opponents since beating #2 Auburn in 2006.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Outright Winners, Yes … ATS, Different Story
Mentioned above, Texas A&M has won nine straight games over Arkansas. But the Aggies have not fared nearly as well against the spread, going 4-8 in their last 12 meetings since 2009, and losing three straight in the series. Arkansas and Alabama seem to be A&M’s biggest kryptonite: the Aggies are 9-4 ATS vs. all other SEC teams since 2019, but 0-4 against the Tide and the Hogs.
Bettors Backing Trends
Bettors seem to be keenly aware of the above trends, as Arkansas has attracted 67% of the tickets and 77% of the money bet so far. Despite the heavy the action on the Hogs, there hasn’t been much line movement. This number opened at A&M -5.5, moved to -4.5 and then moved back to -5.5. Action Network has reported sharp action (pro bettors) on A&M, which could be counter-balancing public money on Arkansas.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Arkansas’ Advantage
The Razorbacks have a big advantage at the most important position in the game, according to Pro Football Focus. Arkansas starting QB KJ Jefferson is the fourth-highest graded signal-caller in the SEC this season (78.7 out of 100), behind Ole Miss’ Matt Corral, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Mississippi State’s Will Rogers. Jefferson is averaging a conference-high 16.2 yards per completion this season and has five throws that have gone for 40 or more yards.
Meanwhile, A&M’s Zach Calzada is the third-worst graded passer in the conference (61.0), ahead of only Tennessee’s Joe Milton and Vanderbilt’s Ken Seals. Calzada was forced into action in Week 2 after starter Haynes King suffered a leg injury that will likely keep him out for over a month. At the time of the injury, King was middle-of-the-pack among SEC QBs, according to PFF. Calzada conceivably gets a pass for some of his performance: he was not expecting to see action in Week 2 vs. Colorado but was thrust into the game on the team’s third drive following King’s injury. Calzada struggled in relief, completing 18-38 passes (47%) for 183 yards and a TD. He was much better last week in his first start against New Mexico, completing 58% of his passes for 275 yards, 3 scores, and an INT. According to ESPN, his QBR vs. New Mexico was 79.5 (out of 100) after posting a woeful 49.5 number against the Buffaloes.
WEST VIRGINIA (2-1) AT #4 OKLAHOMA (3-0) 7:30PM (ET)
LINE: OKLAHOMA -17, TOTAL: 56
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
History Doesn’t Look Good for WVU
West Virginia probably has mixed emotions about Oklahoma leaving the Big 12; on the one hand, it decreases the value of the conference, hurting all the remaining schools. On the other hand, the Mountaineers won’t have to play Oklahoma anymore, which is fantastic news for them. The Sooners have dominated this matchup since West Virginia became a member of the Big 12, winning all eight matchups since 2012 and scoring an average of 47.6 points per game. Since Lincoln Riley took over in 2017, West Virginia hasn’t held Oklahoma under 50 points in three tries. Riley’s squad has also won 11 straight games, tied with Texas A&M for the second-longest streak in FBS, behind only Alabama, and seven straight against Big 12 opponents, longest active streak in the conference. Additionally, OU has won six straight at home, while WVU has lost five straight on the road, the Mountaineers’ longest road losing streak in the past 20 seasons. One more nail in the coffin? West Virginia has never beaten an AP Top-5 team on the road, 0-25 in such contests. But, hey, new season means new opportunity.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
OU Dominance Continued…
We’ve already noted that Oklahoma has dominated West Virginia in this matchup, and that continues even when you include the number. In the last six matchups between these teams, OU is unbeaten against the spread (5-0-1). The Sooners have been very good against all Big 12 opponents in recent history, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven.
Points Incoming!
The other major trend that emerges when looking at recent matchups between these two teams is that points should be expected. Of the last nine matchups, eight have gone over the total, with only the 2013 game going under. It seems that bookmakers can’t set the number high enough: when these two schools squared off in 2018, the total was set at 86.5 … the result was these two teams combining for OVER ONE HUNDRED POINTS. The only total in those nine games that was set under 60 points was back in 2013 … when the game went under. That’s notable because this game marks the second time in the last 10 where the over/under is in the fifties (56).
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Where Has the Deep-Ball Gone?
We’ve covered him many times in this newsletter, but that’s not going to stop us from doing it again. Yes, we’re talking about Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler. Since opening as the Heisman Trophy favorite, Rattler has been sliding down the board. He opened at +800 odds and, after a so-so performance in a win over Nebraska, is currently +1800, fourth-best odds in the country (trailing Ole Miss’ Matt Corral, Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud).
What’s happened to Spencer? To be fair, he has not played badly -- he’s just been outplayed by those who have jumped him. However, there is one glaring difference between the Rattler who was the Heisman favorite and the one that’s nearly 20-1; he’s not throwing the ball down the field. His passes this season are traveling an average of 7.0 yards downfield, compared to 9.3 last season (over 30% drop-off). He’s only attempted five passes that have traveled at least 20 yards in the air. In 2020, he threw five such passes in most GAMES. There were only three contests in 2020 where Rattler did not attempt at least five passes of 20+ air yards, according to ESPN.
On the other side, West Virginia QB Jarret Doege is doing his best 2020 Spencer Rattler impression: he leads the Big 12 with 14 completed passes of 20+ yards. That’s an area where WVU will need to take advantage; OU has allowed 10 completions of over 20 yards, tied for most in the conference (Oklahoma State).