Playoff Preview: Welcome Back, Derrick Henry!
In-depth preview of CIN-TEN, including why Derrick Henry needs to put the Titans on his back
#4 CINCINNATI BENGALS (11-7) AT #1 TENNESSEE TITANS (12-5), 4:30ET
Line: Titans -3.5, Total: 47.5
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
The Return of the King
Tennessee Titans’ star running back Derrick Henry is poised to make his return to the lineup on Saturday despite undergoing foot surgery after a Week 8 game against the Indianapolis Colts. At the time, it looked the injury was season-ending, but Henry has been activated from Injured Reserve and is expected to start. Despite losing Henry midway through the season, the Titans were still able to capture the AFC number one seed. So what does Henry’s return mean for them?
Henry is incredibly hard to bring down for opponents, pairing his massive six-foot-three, nearly 250-pound frame with breakaway speed – Henry reached 21.8 miles-per-hour on a Week 6 rush that is the sixth-fastest speed reached by any ball carrier in the NFL this season, per Next Gen Stats. Through Week 8, the last that Henry appeared, he led the NFL in yards after contact and it wasn’t close. His 849 yards gained after contact were almost 350 more than the next-closest ball carrier. That ball carrier will actually be on the other sideline this weekend, as Joe Mixon had 500 yards after contact through Week 8. Even though Henry looks like a between-the-tackles-bruiser, he was also the league leader in rushing yards outside the tackles through eight weeks, according to NGS. He gained 622 yards on edge runs, while no other back had reached 500.
Since Henry went down with injury, Tennessee has struggled to generate that outside running attack, with their minus-65 rush yards over expectation from Week 9 and on was the second fewest in the NFL. While the Bengals were solid on edge runs in the regular season, the Raiders carved them up in that area last week. Las Vegas averaged 12.0 yards per carry on runs to the outside, 42.9% of those attempts went for 10+ yards, and the Raiders had +31 RYOE on those carries. Additionally, running back Josh Jacobs posted 27 RYOE on all runs, which was the most by any player on Wild Card Weekend. Jacobs also led all running backs in yards per carry (6.4) and RYOE/carry (2.1). Not only that, but Bengals’ defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi was injured in that Wild Card game and will miss the remainder of the season (foot). Ogunjobi tied for the team lead with 12 tackles-for-loss this season, which was also tied for 18th in the NFL. The good news is that the Bengals have two other defenders with 12 TFL this season in Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson. Hendrickson was also hurt in the Wild Card game but has cleared concussion protocol and will play on Saturday. Overall, the Bengals, fresh off their first playoff win in over 30 years, were a middle-of-the-pack rushing defense in the 2021 regular season, with their minus-3.3 expected points added by their rushing defense ranking 16th in the league and their 4.3 yards per carry allowed also sitting at 16th (tied with four other teams).
When the sixth-seeded Titans made their improbable run to the AFC Championship in 2019, Derrick Henry was a massive reason for their success. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry across their three playoff games that year. Last year, though, the fourth-seeded Titans were bounced in the Wild Card round as the Ravens held Henry to 2.2 yards per rush. Henry’s ability to control the game has been the most important aspect of all three of the Titans’ playoff wins since 2017 and when he struggles, they lose. In their three playoff wins, Henry has rushed for 150+ yards in all of them, averaging 29 carries for 178 yards and 6.1 yards per carry. But in the three losses, Henry has failed to top 70 rushing yards, averaging 16 carries for 46 yards and 2.8 yards per rush. The King returns to his throne on Saturday and whether or not he can showcase the same form as early in the season will go a long way to determining whether Tennessee will make its second trip to the AFC Championship in three years or be bounced in its first playoff game for the second straight season.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Game Day Matters
Last week we talked about a multitude of trends of that pointed to road teams having success in the Wild Card round. However, those did not hold up last weekend, as home teams went 5-1 ATS (the only road cover was the 49ers at Dallas). In recent history, the Divisional Round has been much more even with home teams holding a slight edge (25-22-1 ATS, 53% cover) since 2010. Home teams have been slightly better over the past six seasons, going 14-9-1 ATS (61%). Keep in mind, though, that prior to last season all of the home teams in this round had a first-round bye. Additionally, Saturday games have provided a big advantage for home teams, who have gone 18-6 ATS (75%) over the last 12 seasons; the Over is also 16-8 (67%) in those games.
In terms of Wild Card teams’ potential success in this round, note that 12 of the last 14 Wild Card teams to cover the spread in Divisional games played well defensively in the prior game, allowing 20 points or fewer – which Cincinnati did last week against the Raiders. Interestingly, returning playoff teams from the prior season playing as hosts in the Divisional Round to teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year are just 6-13 ATS (32%) in their last 19 when playing as single-digit favorites. Number one seeds haven’t fared all that well, either, going 13-22-1 ATS (37%) in this round since 2004 and when they are installed as favorites of seven points or less, they are 4-10-1 ATS (29%) in the last 15 such games.
Here’s what we wrote last week about the Bengals, who covered last weekend against the Raiders: “the Bengals were one of the best teams in the NFL this season when it came to covering the number, finishing [the regular season] at 10-7 ATS with an average margin of +4.4 points against the spread, which was third best in the league – only New England (+6.2) and Dallas (+5.9) were better.
Tennessee posted the same ATS record in the regular season as Cincinnati, at 10-7, though it had a slightly lower point differential to the number at +2.9 (sixth best). The Titans were also one of the best home teams in the NFL this season, posting a 6-3 ATS record in Nashville that was the fourth-highest cover percentage (67%) in the league. Mike Vrabel is 15-6 ATS (71%) vs. excellent offenses (6+ yards per play) as the Tennessee head coach. Additionally, seven of the Titans’ nine home games this season went Under the total, the second highest Under percentage for any home team in 2021 at 78% (the Giants had zero home games go Over this season). The Bengals saw six of their eight road games go Under as well, which was tied for the highest Under percentage among all road teams (Houston, Denver and Seattle were also at 75% Under).