Playoff Preview: Trevon Diggs, Overrated All-Pro
Breakdown of Jimmy G's season and and an in-depth look at Trevon Diggs' troubles in coverage
#6 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (10-7) AT #3 DALLAS COWBOYS (12-5), 4:30ET
Line: Cowboys -3, Total: 51
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Ultimate Game Manager
There was a lot of talk before the season about whether or not Jimmy Garoppolo would even start this season after the 49ers traded up in the draft to select quarterback Trey Lance. But when healthy, Garoppolo was the unquestioned starter for the team and now they’re in the playoffs again, something they’ve achieved in both seasons where Jimmy G started the majority of games. The team reached the Super Bowl in the 2019 season, the only other season of Garoppolo’s career where he started more than six games. But how much of the team’s success is based on the 30-year-old passer and how much is based on the surrounding team. Let’s take a look into the numbers…
There’s no question that Garoppolo benefits from having incredible talent around him, including wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who averaged 10.0 yards after the catch in the regular season to lead all wide receivers. Samuel’s mark of +403 yards after the catch above expectation (YACOE) was also the most among wide receivers, and a big reason the 49ers lead the league in YACOE (+782). Samuel’s 13 broken tackles on receptions led all wide receivers as well, and tight end George Kittle was fourth among tight ends with eight broken tackles on receptions and third among tight ends with 450 yards after the catch. They now face a Dallas defense that has allowed the fourth most yards after catch in the league (2,275). If there was one area where Samuel has struggled, it was with dropped passes as he tied for second-most in the league with 10 drops, according to Pro Football Reference.
And don’t forget about Brandon Aiyuk who was in the coaching staff’s doghouse early in the year, catching just nine passes for 96 yards in the team’s first six games. But beginning in Week 8, Aiyuk became a big part of the offense, catching 47 passes for 730 yards and four scores. His 730 yards ranked 10th in the NFL from Week 8 onward – in that same timeframe, Samuel had 757 receiving yards (8th most), and Kittle had 683 yards (15th most). That trio also ranked highly in yards per catch in that same timeframe with Samuel (19.4) leading the NFL and Aiyuk (15.5, 6th) and Kittle (13.1, tied for 10th) both in the Top 10.
But someone had to get them the ball, right? All three receivers enjoy the majority of their success in the intermediate part of the field, as all three had an average depth of target between 8 and 10 yards; Aiyuk’s ADOT was 9.8, Samuel’s was 8.5 and Kittle’s was 8.3. Because of that, 48% of Garoppolo’s passes were thrown between 10 and 19 air yards downfield; no other quarterback had a number above 40% in that category. Garoppolo was highly successful in getting the ball into his receivers’ hands and avoiding mistakes and posted the second highest on-target throw percentage in the league at 81.5% (Joe Burrow led at 82.8%), according to PFR. In addition, he was also second to Burrow for lowest bad-throw percentage (12.9% to Burrow’s 10.7%). He also used San Francisco’s seventh-ranked rushing offense (127.4 yards per game) to his advantage, as well; no passer averaged more than Garoppolo’s 10.2 yards per pass attempt off of play-action (among the 25 passers with at least 80 passing attempts).
Garoppolo uses the weapons around him, takes advantage of play-action and RPO and gets the ball out of his hands quickly (one of 10 quarterbacks averaging fewer than 2.4 seconds of pocket time per pass), which helps mitigate the pass rush. Despite San Francisco’s 14th-ranked pass blocking (61% PBWR according to ESPN Analytics), Garoppolo faced the fifth-lowest pressure rate in the league (18.7%). Now it faces a Cowboys defensive front that is tied for 11th in pass-rush win rate (42%) and generates the fourth-highest pressure rate (27.8%). One area that they will need to improve is the penalty department; the Dallas defense committed 121 penalties this season, the second-most in the NFL (Pittsburgh 123).
Speaking of penalties, that brings us to the very divisive Trevon Diggs, the star cornerback for the Cowboys. Diggs led the NFL in interceptions this season with 11 and became the first defender to pick off 11 passes in a single season in 40 years. Because of that, he was named All-Pro this year, his second season in the NFL and has been in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year (along with teammate Micah Parsons). However, Diggs committed 11 penalties this season, which tied with Atlanta’s Fabian Moreau for most among NFL defensive backs. He also allowed 1,016 yards in coverage, the most in the league by over 150 yards (Saints’ Marshon Lattimore was second with 862). He also allowed 18.5 yards per reception (most), 425 yards after the catch (third most) and five touchdowns (tied for 16th most). Quarterbacks didn’t shy away from him, either, as he saw 95 targets this season, tied for fifth most. While the interceptions grab the headlines, Diggs’ aggressive nature has led to big plays for opposing offenses. Should he be tasked with covering Deebo Samuel, that will be a matchup worth watching on Sunday.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Best of the Best
Dallas was the best team in the NFL this season against the number, going 13-4 ATS (76% cover) and 10-3 ATS as a favorite (77%). But in two seasons under Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys are 1-8 ATS (11%) when the line is +3 to -3 and have lost those games by an average score of 30 to 19. While San Francisco was just above .500 overall (9-8 ATS), it was 7-2 ATS (78%) in the final nine games, which was tied with Detroit for the best cover percentage over that stretch. The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo have been very strong as underdogs, with the quarterback going 13-4 ATS (76%) in his career as an underdog, including playoffs. And over the past three seasons, San Francisco is 12-5 ATS (71%) as an underdog.
That leads to some trends that we shared in previous posts, but also apply here: road underdogs of seven or fewer points are 28-14-1 ATS (67%) in the Wild Card round since 2003. Additionally, in the last eight years, road teams are 22-11-1 ATS (67%) in Wild Card games. And with regard to the Total, Unders are 46-31-1 (60%) in Wild Card games since 2002, including 12-6 (67%) in the past four years. Of the last 30 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, the Under is 21-8-1 (72%). And of the 18 three-seed vs. six-seed Wild Card matchups over the last nine seasons, the Under is 15-2-1 (88%). The Under is also 7-1 (88%) in San Francisco’s last eight games as playoff underdogs. However, the Over is 8-2 in the last 10 matchups between these teams, and the Cowboys are 14-4 Over at home vs. NFC opponents since 2019.