Playoff Preview: Stafford's Mistakes Key to Bucs Plan
In-depth look at the matchup between the Rams & Bucs, including the dubious distinction held by Matthew Stafford
#4 LOS ANGELES RAMS (13-5) AT #2 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (14-4), 3:00ET
Line: Bucs -3, Total: 48
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
The Enigmatic Matthew Stafford
We’ve been discussing quarterback performance against the blitz in a lot of recent posts, mostly because the elite quarterbacks tend to be very strong against it and we are at the point in the season where mostly elite quarterbacks remain. One that comes up often in the “is he or isn’t he” discussion is LA’s Matthew Stafford. Stafford, of course, put up some huge numbers during his Lions tenure but never won a playoff game. That created a discussion about whether it was being in Detroit or his inability to carry a team through the postseason. Now getting an opportunity in LA, we’ve seen a mixed bag from the big-armed signal caller. He threw for 4,886 yards in the regular season, good for third-most in the league (behind Tom Brady 5,235 and Justin Herbert 5,014), and 41 touchdowns, good for second-most in the league (Brady 43). Stafford became just the sixth player in NFL history to have multiple seasons of 40+ TD passes, joining Brady (3), Aaron Rodgers (3), Dan Marino (2), Drew Brees (2) and Peyton Manning (2).
On the flip side, Stafford also tied for the league lead with 17 interceptions (Trevor Lawrence), including a league-high four pick-sixes. In fact, Stafford has led the league in pick-sixes thrown in back-to-back seasons and is the active leader in pick-sixes thrown for his career with 27 – that’s tied for fourth all-time (Brett Favre’s 31 are the most). This is also the fourth season in Stafford’s career that he’s led the league in that dubious category (2009, 2012, 2020 & 2021). For reference, Tom Brady has thrown 18 pick-sixes in his regular season career, and he’s also attempted nearly 4,500 more passes than Stafford. Brady throws a pick-six once every 629 pass attempts; Stafford throws one every 253 attempts. Now, maybe it’s unfair to compare him to the GOAT. Let’s look at each remaining playoff quarterback. If you remove Brady from the equation, the other six quarterbacks left in postseason have combined to throw fewer pick-sixes (20) than Stafford has. The next closest is Ryan Tannehill, who has served up nine in his career and averages one for every 468 pass attempts. The next-closest in terms of pick-sixes thrown per attempt would be Joe Burrow at one every 462 attempts. Next, you have Jimmy Garoppolo who throws one for every 709 attempts. After that, you get a group of QBs who simply do not throw them – Josh Allen throws one every 1,000 attempts, Patrick Mahomes is once every 1,173 and Aaron Rodgers sits at a ridiculous one pick-six for every 2,373 attempts (he’s thrown only three in his career despite 7,118 pass attempts).
Because Matthew Stafford makes big plays and big mistakes, he is a bit of an enigma when it comes to evaluating him. Elite quarterbacks do not throw pick-sixes anywhere near the rate of Stafford. However, no one is better when facing the blitz than Stafford, which usually correlates with the best passers in the league. Stafford led the league in passer rating against the blitz at 134.4, which was well ahead of second-place Russell Wilson (127.2) and third-place Joe Burrow (122.3). Stafford also had a 14-to-1 TD-INT ratio when facing the blitz. Those 14 TD passes were third-most against the blitz and the two passers ahead of him – Tom Brady (15 TD) and Dak Prescott (22 TD) – both threw at least 4 interceptions in those situations. Stafford’s 74.6% completion percentage vs. the blitz led the league and his 9.4 yards per attempt were tied for second (only Joe Burrow was better at 10.8), according to Pro Football Focus.
Now he’ll square off with the most blitz-happy defense in the NFL, as the Buccaneers bring an extra rusher on 40.0% of opponent dropbacks. For the season, Stafford was only blitzed on 21.9% of his dropbacks (fourth fewest). In games where Stafford faced at least nine blitzes (including against Tampa in Week 3), the Rams were 7-0. When he faced six or fewer, the team was 2-4. Tampa struggled to get pressure on Stafford in that first matchup, generating a disruptive rush on only 15.4% of his dropbacks. For the season, Tampa generated the second-highest pressure rate in the league at 28.6% (only Buffalo was better at 30.8%), according to Pro Football Reference. When facing pressure, Stafford completed just 49.6% of his passes, had a 9 TD and 7 INT, and committed turnover-worthy plays on 7.4% of such plays (fifth most). From a clean pocket, the TWP% dropped to 2.4%. The key to beating Matthew Stafford is to force him into the big mistakes that he’s prone to making, and he generally commits those errors when he's under heavy pressure. However, blitzing him isn’t the answer. A big question facing defensive coordinator (and head coaching candidate) Todd Bowles is whether or not his defense can get to Stafford without bringing the extra man (or men). That could go a long way in determining if the Rams can pull off the road upset.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Tough Home Favorite vs. Big-Bite Road Dog
Despite Tampa Bay’s 13-4 regular season record, they were just 9-8 against-the-spread. However, the Bucs tied for the second-best home record vs. the number at 6-2 ATS (75% cover) -- only the Packers (7-1 ATS) were better -- and they covered in the Wild Card round at home against the Eagles to put them at 7-2 ATS (78%) overall this season. Their average margin of victory over the spread at Raymond James Stadium was +5.9 during the regular season and they covered by nine points over Philadelphia last weekend (31-15 victory as seven-point favorites). Tampa has been strong as a home favorite as well, going 9-2 ATS (82%) in its last 11 such games. It’s worth noting, though, that these teams met in Raymond James in November 2020 and the Rams won the game outright as a road underdog. Tom Brady has lost only four home games outright since joining the Bucs – twice to the Saints, once to the Chiefs and the other was that Rams matchup. Additionally, these teams met this season in LA and the Rams won that game outright as underdogs, as well. The Brady era has also seen the Bucs go 11-2 ATS in the second half of the season when facing good offensive teams (350+ yards per game).
Like Tampa, the Rams performed worse against the spread than they did straight-up, going 8-9 ATS during the regular season, including 4-5 ATS on the road. However, one thing that Sean McVay brought with him when he took over in 2017 is an ability to cover as a road underdog with the Rams going 9-4 ATS (69%) in such contests, including playoffs. Twice last season the Rams were road dogs in the playoffs, winning outright against Seattle in the Wild Card round before losing both straight-up and against-the-spread vs. the Packers. Both of those games went Over the total, as have of the past nine games (89%) where the Rams were road underdogs. The Over has also been the better wager for the Bucs after big wins in the two seasons with Brady, as Tampa is 13-3 Over (81%) when following a double-digit victory since the start of 2020.
We mentioned in yesterday’s previews that Saturday was much more kind to home teams, but that flips once we get to Sunday. On Sundays in the Divisional Round, road teams have gone 22-9-1 ATS (71%) since 2006, including 2-0 ATS last season.