Playoff Preview: Pressuring Rodgers Key to 49ers' Upset Bid
In-depth preview of SF-GB, including Rodgers' struggles against a strong pass rush
#6 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-7) AT #1 GREEN BAY PACKERS (13-4), 8:15ET
Line: Packers -5.5, Total: 47
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Rushing Rodgers
San Francisco got some excellent news on the injury front that star pass-rusher Nick Bosa has cleared concussion protocol and will play in this contest. It’s no secret that the key to beating Aaron Rodgers is by generating pressure. What’s interesting about Rodgers is that he’s much better when not blitzed than when he is blitzed. As we’ve noted about the high-level quarterbacks in recent posts, most elite-level quarterbacks are dominant versus the blitz. But no quarterback in the league posted a better expected points added on non-blitz plays than Rodgers (+99.7). When Rodgers is blitzed, he gets rid of the ball quickly and he throws it short. According to Pro Football Focus, Rodgers’ average time to throw when blitzed (2.2 seconds) is a half-second quicker than when he faces no blitz (2.7 seconds) and his average depth of throw when blitzed (7.1 air yards) is nearly a yard-and-a-half shorter (8.5 air yards when not blitzed).
What it comes down to for the defense is whether or not you can get pressure on Rodgers, via the blitz or not. When teams didn’t blitz Rodgers, they struggled to get that pressure as he faced a pass rush on just 18.7% of non-blitzed dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. The splits between Rodgers in a clean pocket and Rodgers facing the rush are stark; he had an adjusted completion percentage of 54.5 when facing pressure, which ranked 30th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks according to PFF (only Jets’ rookie Zach Wilson was worse). However, when sitting in a clean pocket, Rodgers’ ADJ% of 82.7% was 2nd in the NFL, behind only Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Rodgers’ passer rating when facing no pressure was a league-leading 123.7, and no other QB posted a number above 117 in that category. Under pressure, though, that dropped to a 67.9 rating, which ranked 19th.
Few teams can generate the pressure without blitzing that San Francisco does, as its 29.4% pressure rate when bringing four rushers was third highest in the league, according to NGS. And according to Pro Football Reference, the 49ers were one of five teams who blitz on fewer than 20% of opponent dropbacks. A big reason for that is Bosa, who has the sixth-highest pass-rush win rate in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, at 23%. As a team, the 49ers rank fifth with a PRWR of 46%. But don’t forget about interior defender Arik Armstead, who is among the most versatile defensive linemen in the league. PFF has him rated as the 22nd-best pass rusher among all defensive players (76.9 grade) and ESPN has his run-stop win rate tied for third in the league (43%). Armstead, listed as defensive end, was moved to the interior following a season-ending injury to Javon Kinlaw and the acquisition of former Texan, Charles Omenihu. Then there’s DJ Jones, the 49ers defensive tackle who has the best RSWR among all NFL players at 48%, helping to lead San Francisco to the league’s third-best team RSWR at 33%.
Rodgers and the Packers offense are going up against one of the best front fours in the NFL and their offensive line will need to be at its best. Left tackle David Bakhtiari, who played 27 snaps in Week 18 after returning from a torn ACL last season, is listed as questionable. If he’s to play a full complement of snaps for the first time in nearly 13 months, it’ll be a tough first assignment. However, the team has done well without him, posting a 66% pass-block win rate that ranked 5th in the league in the regular season. It will be two strong fronts going head-to-head which is exactly what hardcore football fans love to watch.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
To Be the Best, You Gotta Beat the Best
Last weekend, San Francisco went up against the #1 against-the-spread team in the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys (13-4 ATS, regular season), and not only covered as an underdog but won the game outright to advance to this matchup -- with the #2 against-the-spread team in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers (12-5 ATS, 71%). The Packers were the best team in the regular season at home, going 7-1 ATS (88%) in Lambeau and covering by an average of 6.4 points per game. The only game Green Bay failed to cover at home was a Week 16 win over the Browns, 24-22, where the seven-point favorites led by nine points with less than five minutes to go in the game but gave up a late touchdown to Cleveland. Including playoffs, Green Bay has gone 11-3 ATS (79%) in its last 14 home games, but one of those losses was last season when it was knocked out of the playoffs against Tampa Bay. However, the Packers lost their last game (a meaningless Week 18 contest at Detroit) and are 9-0 ATS after a loss in the Matt LaFleur era, winning those games by an average of 14.1 points. The Over is 7-4 (64%) in the last 11 Packers’ home games and the Over is 7-0 in January games under LaFleur with the average final score of those seven contests just over 54 points.
While San Francisco was just above .500 overall (9-8 ATS), it was 7-2 ATS (78%) in the final nine regular-season games, which was tied with Detroit for the best cover percentage over that stretch. The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo have been very strong as underdogs, with the quarterback going 14-4 ATS (78%) in his career as an underdog, including playoffs. Over the past three seasons, San Francisco is 13-5 ATS (72%) as an underdog. Add in that the 49ers are on the road, and you have a team that’s gone 10-4 ATS (71%) as a road dog in its last 14 games, including playoffs. The Under is 10-4 in those games, as well.
Some trends that we noted in the Bengals-Titans post also apply to this matchup, including: 12 of the last 14 Wild Card teams to cover the spread in Divisional games played well defensively in the prior game, allowing 20 points or fewer – which San Francisco did last week against Dallas. Also, returning playoff teams from the prior season (like Green Bay) playing as hosts in the Divisional Round to teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year (like San Francisco) are just 6-13 ATS (32%) in the last 19 when playing as single-digit favorites. Number one seeds haven’t fared all that well, either, going 13-22-1 ATS (37%) in this round since 2004. When they are installed as favorites of seven points or less, they are 4-10-1 ATS (29%) in the last 15 such games. Additionally, number one seeds have struggled against number six seeds, going 5-11-1 ATS (31%) since 2006. Of the last 32 teams that pulled off road wins in the Wild Card round to advance to this weekend, 19 have covered the spread (61.2% with one push) and 11 have won a second straight road game outright, which San Francisco will attempt to do on Saturday night.