Playoff Preview: Kyler's Year-Three Leap
In-depth look at Kyler Murray's improvement and the importance of Aaron Donald in this matchup
#5 ARIZONA CARDINALS (11-6) AT #4 LOS ANGELES RAMS (12-5), 8:15ET
Line: Rams -4, Total: 49.5
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Kyler’s Step Forward
We’ve spent a good portion of this weekend’s posts discussing quarterback performance versus the blitz. This is because teams are doing everything they can to disrupt the quarterbacks as the NFL continues to move toward a more pass-heavy league than ever before (teams averaged 584.8 pass attempts this year, most in history). For defenses that have strong fronts that can create havoc without bringing extra rushers, this sets up as a major advantage. But as we’ve discussed, the upper-echelon quarterbacks prefer when teams blitz them because that just means less defenders to cover and tackle. We’ve also noted that this is something that comes with time; young quarterbacks tend to struggle more than veterans when faced with the blitz. A perfect case-study of this phenomenon is Cardinals third-year signal caller, Kyler Murray.
As a rookie, Murray had difficulties when the defense brought heat, completing only 54.9% of his passes according to Next Gen Stats. He improved in his second season to 60.5% and then to a career-best 62.6% this season. His passer rating against the blitz has improved from 67.1 as a rookie to 84.3 as a sophomore to another career-high this season at 107.6, representing a 40-point jump since 2019. Murray has been improving across the board over the past three seasons, seeing his bad-throw percentage drop every season (from 17.9% to 16.8% to 14.1% this year, fourth lowest in the NFL) and his on-target throw percentage rise (73.5% to 77.1% to 79.4%, sixth best).
He’ll now face a Los Angeles defense that blitzes on 26.6% of passing plays, according to Pro Football Reference, which is 11th most in the NFL. Against the Rams this year, Murray was strong against their frequent blitzes completing 73.7% of his passes which was +12.3 completion percentage over expectation, according to NGS, and a 104.7 passer rating. In general, the Rams blitz hasn’t been very successful this season, as they allow a league-worst 73.3% completion rate when blitzing. Not only is that the NFL’s worst in 2021, but it’s the highest completion percentage allowed while blitzing since NGS began tracking that figure in 2016. Additionally, quarterbacks have a 94.7 passer rating when facing a blitz from the Rams. And LA generates pressure on only 22.8% of opponent dropbacks, which is the second-lowest mark among teams who blitz more than 25% of the time (Detroit). The Rams QB knockdown percentage of 5.9% is also the second-lowest, and again only better than Detroit (5.3%).
In LA’s Week 14 win over the Cardinals, it was able to generate pressure on just over 30% of Kyler’s dropbacks, which was the second-highest rate that Murray saw in 2021. In that game, Rams’ stalwart defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who leads all interior defenders with a 26% pass-rush win rate according to ESPN Analytics, sacked Murray three times while generating seven pressures and hurrying him four times. In the Cardinals win over the Rams in Week 4, Donald was much less impactful, registering zero sacks and only two pressures. The difference that Donald’s havoc had on Murray was clear: Murray had a 20.4% bad-throw percentage in the loss (his second most this season) and a 6.9% bad-throw rate in the victory (second lowest). In that loss, Murray was intercepted twice, failed to pass for a touchdown and completed 65% of his passes (below his season average of 69%), and had a passer rating of 72.1 (second worst of his season). In the Week 4 victory he had a 2 TD, 0 INT, completed 75% of his throws and recorded a passer rating of 120.3.
Kyler Murray has made strides against the blitz and while facing pressure throughout his career, but no quarterback is immune from the disruption that Aaron Donald can create when he’s constantly in the backfield. It will be a major priority for Arizona’s offense line to do whatever they can to try and contain Donald, but they can’t forget about Von Miller. The midseason acquisition started slowly with his new team (0 sacks in his first four games), but Miller has come on of late with sacks in four straight games, (5 total). He could be the key to the Rams blitz, as well. In his first four games in a Rams uniform, Miller blitzed 22 times but recorded only five pressures. In his last four games, he’s come on a blitz 16 times and generated eight pressures. While Miller-Donald may sound like a prestigious LA law firm, it’s really the biggest obstacle that Murray and the Cardinals will need to overcome to win their first playoff game since 2015.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Vegas Darlings
Although the Rams are the higher seed and won 12 games this season, they performed worse than the Cardinals against the number. Los Angeles was just 8-9 ATS this season, while Arizona was tied for the fifth-best cover percentage in the NFL overall (10-7 ATS, 59% cover) and tied with Dallas for the best road cover percentage (8-1 ATS in road games, 89% cover). The Cards led the NFL in average point differential against the spread in road games at +10.5. Arizona is also 6-0 ATS and outright as an underdog this season and, according to ESPN, that is the most outright wins as an underdog in a single season without a loss in the Super Bowl era.
The Wild Card trends that we’ve frequently discussed also back the Cardinals in this one; road underdogs of seven or fewer points are 28-14-1 ATS (67%) in the Wild Card round since 2003. In the past four seasons, there have been 18 Wild Card games and the underdog has covered 15 of those 18 games (83%). Additionally, over the last eight years, road teams are 22-11-1 ATS (67%) in Wild Card games and road underdogs facing division opponents in this round are 9-3-1 ATS (75%) since 2003. Since 2014, underdogs are 7-0 ATS in divisional rematches in the postseason (5-2 outright).
If you’re looking for trends that back the Rams, here are a few: Sean McVay has been a Cardinal killer, going 9-1 ATS against Arizona and 5-1 ATS against Kliff Kingsbury. Los Angeles was favored in all but one of those games (underdogs in past meeting in Week 14). McVay is also strong with additional prep time, going 17-8-1 ATS (68%) with at least seven days between games. Finally, Arizona’s strong regular season record as a dog hasn’t played out well historically; teams to go 2-0 ATS or better as underdogs during the regular season are 15-25-1 (38%) as underdogs in the postseason, according to ESPN.