Playoff Preview: Chiefs' Turnover Turnaround
In-depth look at the biggest change for the Chiefs in the second half of the season
#7 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7-1) AT #2 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-5), 8:15ET
Line: Chiefs -12.5, Total: 46
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Turnover Trends
It’s a common belief – especially among analytic circles – that turnovers can be quite random and are hard to count on from year to year. Of course, better defenses force more turnovers, and bad offenses (specifically bad quarterbacks) have more giveaways. But Reid’s Chiefs have been among the league leaders in ball security during his entire tenure – they’ve been in the Top 10 in fewest turnovers in every season until this year and in the Top 5 in all but two of those. But this season represented a massive shift: Kansas City turned the ball over 25 times – no Reid Chiefs team had more than 18 in a season prior to 2021. And the 17-game season had nothing to do with it; in fact, the Chiefs actually did not turn the ball over in any of their last three games this season. The biggest culprit, by far, was quarterback Patrick Mahomes who had a career-high 17 giveaways this season (13 interceptions and four lost fumbles); his 17 turnovers were more than he had in 2019 and 2020 combined (11 interceptions, four lost fumbles).
But the last three games, as mentioned, the Chiefs had zero giveaways. And, despite Mahomes propensity for turnovers this season, the deeper numbers suggest that he encountered a lot of bad luck in 2021 and those three games are more indicative of his performance. This is bad news for the rest of the league trying to stop Kansas City and counting on Mahomes making mistakes. Despite throwing a career-high 13 interceptions that were tied for ninth most in the league, Mahomes led the NFL with a league-low 2.3% interception probability on throws, according to Next Gen Stats. Six of his picks were tipped by a Chiefs receiver before being intercepted, and Mahomes was also the victim of 31 dropped passes according to Pro Football Reference (tied for fifth most). And although he has a bit of that “gunslinger” reputation, Mahomes rarely forces the ball to receivers – he was the least aggressive passer in the league with just 8.7% of his throws going into tight coverage (a defender within one yard at the time the ball arrives). His ability to move around and allow receivers to break free also led him to the highest open-receiver throw rate at 54% (in addition to having excellent receivers like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce at his disposal). He posted a 77.5% on-target throw rate, which was higher than either 2019 or 2020 – seasons where he combined to throw only 11 interceptions in 1,072 pass attempts. However, his bad-throw percentage was up this year (18.8% vs. 17.6% from 2018-2020) despite throwing much shorter passes (7.3 average intended air yards vs. 8.7 from 2018-2020).
Overall, it was a down year for Mahomes but only because the bar he set for himself was so high. He encountered a bit of bad luck that pushed his interception total higher than it should have been based on how he played, and that started to even out towards the end of the season (one interception in his final five starts after 12 INT in his first 12 starts). He still led the NFL in expected points added on passes (+179.6) and was fourth in EPA per attempt (+0.29). More likely, it took some time for him to adjust to the new way defenses were attacking him: by rarely blitzing. He saw blitzes on just 12 percent of dropbacks this season -- the lowest for any QB in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Opponents did so for good reason, as according to Pro Football Focus Mahomes had an 82.6% adjusted completion percentage against the blitz, third best among all quarterbacks, versus a 77.5% ADJ% when not blitzed (10th) and his turnover-worthy play percentage against the blitz (0.9%, fourth lowest) was far lower than when not blitzed (3.1%, tied for ninth lowest).
The last time the Chiefs met the Steelers in Week 16, the game wasn’t close -- Kansas City rolled to a 36-10 victory thanks in part to a +3-turnover margin (Pittsburgh had three to Kansas City’s zero). However, there is a key difference in this meeting: likely Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt is healthier. In the last matchup, Watt had cracked ribs and played only 55% of the team’s defensive snaps, making very little impact (it was one of only two games that he played and recorded zero quarterback hits). In games where Watt played at least 79% of the Steelers defensive snaps this season, the team was 9-2; when he played less (or didn’t play at all) they were 0-5-1. When he recorded at least one tackle for loss, the Steelers were 9-1-1 vs. 0-6 when he didn’t. When he records at least three quarterback hits, they’re 7-0 … when he doesn’t, 2-7-1. You get the picture. The Chiefs will need to find a way to keep Watt from making a massive impact on the game because he’s easily the Steelers’ best and most important player -- on either side of the ball.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Overcoming The Big Number
This game has the potential to be the largest spread we’ve ever seen in a Wild Card round game; the previous high was 11.5 points (interestingly, the Steelers were on the other side of that one when they were favored over the Dolphins in the 2016 Wild Card round and won 30-12). We’ve talked extensively in our other playoff posts about how successful underdogs and road teams have historically performed well in the Wild Card round. However, the one area where that doesn’t hold true is against double-digit favorites. Home teams favored by 10 or more points are 7-0 ATS in the history of the Wild Card round, according to ESPN. However, while backing Patrick Mahomes has been profitable for his career (37-29 ATS, 56% cover), he and the Chiefs have lost money when favored by 10+ points (7-9 ATS, 44%). Remember though that they were 10-point favorites against this Steelers team in Week 16 and won by 26 points. That game represented the first time that Ben Roethlisberger was a double-digit underdog since 2007 (1-2 ATS in his career in that situation). Roethlisberger has been a double-digit underdog in the playoffs only once in his career, and he and the Steelers won outright thanks to Big Ben’s famous tackle against the Colts in 2006. That Pittsburgh team would go on to win the Super Bowl.
We’ve mentioned it before, but the Chiefs are an extremely streaky team when it comes to covering the spread: from Week 11 of 2019 through Week 8 of 2020 (including playoffs), Kansas City went 15-2 against-the-spread. Then, from Week 9 of 2020 through Week 9 of this season (including playoffs), the Chiefs went 3-16-1 ATS. Following that Week 9 failed cover against the Packers, Kansas City went on a six-game cover streak. However, the team has now dropped two straight against the number to close the season as a losing bet (8-9 ATS overall in 2021). The Steelers also finished the 2021 regular season at 8-9 ATS.
This matchup also pits one of the league’s most prolific Over bets, Kansas City (10-7, tied for second-most Overs this season, and currently on 5-game Over streak) with one of the league’s most consistent Under bets, Pittsburgh (6-10-1, tied for fourth-most Unders this season). Worth noting, though, that the Steelers were 2-6-1 to the Under at home, but an even 4-4 on the road and Kansas City was 6-2 to the Over on the road, but 4-4 at home. Since 2002, Unders are 46-31-1 (60% cover) in Wild Card games, including 12-6 in the past four years. Of the last 30 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, the Under is 21-8-1 (72%) and in the last 31 Sunday Wild Card games, 23 have gone Under the total (74%). In the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers are 33-13 Under (72%) on the road where the total is at least 45.5 points. And in the Andy Reid era, the Chiefs are 21-7 Under (75%) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.