Playoff Preview: Can Eagles Exploit Bucs' Overrated Run Defense?
Why Philly will need to start fast and hit the ground hard to keep this one close
#7 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-8) AT #2 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (13-4), 1:00ET
Line: Bucs -8.5, Total: 45.5
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Spread the Wings Early, Eagles
The Eagles enter this contest as the final seed in the NFC and will go up against the reigning Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers and their future Hall of Fame quarterback, Tom Brady. However, while Brady’s impact on the game is obvious, the key for this matchup lies with Philadelphia’s league-best rushing attack (159.7 yards/game) going up against Tampa’s third-ranked rushing defense (92.5 yards/game allowed). The key to stopping Brady has always been simple: keep him on the sideline as much as possible. And the best way to do that is to control the ground game on offense, something the Eagles have the ability to do. They are tied with Tennessee for most average rushing attempts per game (32.4), fourth in yards gained per rush (4.9), lead the league in rushing first downs (9.6/game) and are the only team in the NFL that runs the ball on greater than 50% of their offensive plays (51.2% of plays are rush attempts). That last number underscores the dichotomy between these two squads as Tampa Bay runs the ball fewer times, percentage-wise, than any other team (33.8%).
What makes the Eagles rushing attack so potent is that their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, is arguably their best runner. When a quarterback runs the ball, especially on designed runs, it gives the offense an advantage because it allows for an extra blocker, while a handoff immediately takes that 11th man out of play. The option-style rushing attack will be the key for Philadelphia to be successful; according to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles: “led the league with 183 runs that included an option element and were highly efficient – generating .115 EPA per play. That was tops among all teams with at least 25 option runs.”
Then, there’s the element of scrambling on passing plays when receivers aren’t open, or the pressure gets to Hurts. No quarterback scrambled more times than Hurts, who did so 50 times this season. He averaged 8.3 yards per scramble, which ranked fifth among quarterbacks who started at least 10 games. Hurts isn’t necessarily a run-first quarterback, though – no QB spends more average time in the pocket than Hurts, according to Pro Football Reference, who has his average at 2.7 seconds per dropback. He has actually been much better with less than 2.5 seconds in pocket (67% completions, 9 TD, 3 INT) than with at least 2.5 seconds (55%, 7 TD, 6 INT). It helps that his offensive has a pass-block win rate of 67%, which is tied for third highest in the league, according to ESPN Analytics. The Eagles also run block at the second-best rate (74% run-block win rate) behind only the Washington Football Team (75% RBWR).
While Tampa’s run defense looks great on paper, being ranked third in total rush defense, there are holes that can be exploited. Their overall rushing yards allowed are held down by the fact that they are often leading, forcing opponents to abandon the run. Bucs’ opponents trailed on 642 of their offensive plays this season, compared to 293 snaps when they were ahead and 158 while tied (451 combined between leading and tied). Because of that, no defense faced fewer rushing attempts this season (366). So, while Tampa is third in total run defense, they are tied for 16th in yards per carry allowed (4.3) and 16th in expected points allowed (EPA) on rushing plays (+0.17). They also miss a lot of tackles, with their 120 tied for seventh in the NFL; that’s the second most of any playoff team (Steelers, 125). With all of that in mind, it’s not surprising that ESPN has the Bucs as tied for 18th in run-stop win rate as a team (30%).
In order to have a shot to pull off the upset in a game where they are underdogs of greater than a touchdown, the Eagles will need to get out to a fast start. Not only will it help them establish the run game, but Hurts has been far better this season when Philadelphia has the lead, compared to trailing in the game. When they were ahead, Hurts completed 65.1% of his passes, had six touchdowns to one interception, recorded a passer rating of 104.8, and took seven sacks for an average loss of 3.6 yards. When trailing, however, Hurts’ completion percentage dropped to 61.2%, he threw eight touchdowns and seven interceptions, recorded a passer rating of 83.3, and took 16 sacks for an average loss of 6.6 yards.
Starting fast, controlling the ground game, and keeping the opponent’s quarterback on the sidelines may all sound like typical football clichés, and they are. But they are clichés for a reason: they work. When a team like the Eagles is trying to pull a major upset on the road, in the playoffs, with a starting quarterback making his playoff debut, they have to be perfect when it comes to the basics. If not, it could be a long afternoon for the Birds and Hurts, who had a dismal 46% completion rate and 55.8 passer rating in a Week 6 loss to Tampa.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Mixed Bag
Despite Tampa Bay’s 13-4 regular season record, they were just 9-8 against-the-spread this season. However, they were tied for the second-best home record vs. the number at 6-2 ATS – only the Packers (7-1 ATS) were better. Their average margin of victory over the spread at Raymond James Stadium was +5.9, good for fourth in the NFL behind three other playoff teams: New England, Dallas and Green Bay.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, was just 8-8-1 ATS this season, despite their average margin vs. the number being +3.0, good for sixth best. On the road, the team went 5-4 ATS and its average margin against the number jumped up to +6.5, which was fifth best. It’s important to note that Philly feasted on lesser opponents; they went just 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records this season
The Eagles were also one of only five teams who played to at least 10 Overs this season (10-7 Over-Under). Tampa Bay was also slightly more of an Over team at 9-8 – there were only eight NFL teams who had more Overs than Unders this season and two of them are in this game. Since Brady arrived in Tampa, the Bucs are 13-2 Over after a double-digit win like they had last week versus Carolina. It’s worth noting that the total in this game has seen the most movement of any line in Wild Card Weekend: the Over/Under opened at 49 but has been bet down to the current number of 45.5, as sharp bettors are expecting a lower-scoring affair.
Brady’s two Super Bowl losses to the Giants are memorable, and he’s struggled in the postseason against all NFC East teams in his career, going 0-5 ATS — including 0-2 ATS against Philadelphia. He’s also gone 0-3 ATS in his past three Wild Card games (2009, 2019, 2020). But in this game, he’ll face a quarterback making his postseason debut, and backing the veteran in that situation has been a big money maker for bettors over the past 20 years. Quarterbacks making their playoff debut against an opposing quarterback who has postseason experience have gone 13-28 ATS (32% cover) since 2002, per FOX Sports. As a team, though, the Eagles have been a good playoff bet since 2001, going 10-1 ATS as a postseason underdog (6-5 outright). Philadelphia has covered in five of its past six playoff games.