Playoff Preview: Big Decisions for Buffalo's Defense
In-depth look at Bills-Chiefs, including why the Bills face a conundrum in defending Patrick Mahomes
#3 BUFFALO BILLS (12-6) AT #2 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (13-5), 6:30ET
Line: Chiefs -1.5, Total: 54
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Will Bills Bring Blitz?
Guess what? We’re going to talk about the blitz! Why this time, you ask? Because Patrick Mahomes is dominant against the blitz, so teams have almost stopped bringing it against him completely. At first, that strategy worked as the Chiefs got off to a slow start and there was talk about Mahomes not being the same player as he had been in the past. However, like all elite athletes, Mahomes has made the adjustments to the adjustment that was made against him and now it’s up to defenses to make an adjustment to the adjustment that he made to the initial adjustment. Words are fun.
In the first eight games of the season, Patrick Mahomes threw 10 interceptions, and the Chiefs had a 4-4 record, with three of their wins coming against NFC East opponents. He had just finished the longest interception streak of his career, tossing a pick in seven straight games and had added two lost fumbles during that stretch. Mahomes was blitzed 10 times in Week 1, and he threw no interceptions in a season-opening win over Cleveland. That would be the last time he would see double-digit blitzes until Week 15. The average number of blitzes he saw during his interception streak was 5.6 per game and he saw blitzes on just 15.5% of his dropbacks this season, easily the lowest in the league (Ben Roethlisberger was next at 21.0%), according to Pro Football Focus. That blitz percentage was also the lowest any QB has faced since Next Gen Stats began tracking in 2016.
In the first 12 games of the season, Mahomes completed 64.2% of his passes when facing no blitz and has increased that by over five points (69.5%) over his last six starts (including last week’s playoff game). After posting 22 TD, 11 INT and a passer rating of 90.9 when facing a four-man rush in those 12 games, he’s had 13 TD, 1 INT and a 111.7 rating over the past six contests.
The Buffalo Bills were one of the first to realize that blitzing Mahomes was a poor strategy, as in their last two regular-season matchups with the Chiefs, they sent zero blitzes in either game – those are the only two games in the Next Gen Stats era where a defense did not send a single blitz. Mahomes played well in the first meeting in 2020, a 26-17 win over the Bills in which he completed 80.8% of his passes, while taking one sack and throwing no interceptions and two touchdown passes. Because of that, when the teams rematched in the 2020 AFC Championship Game, Buffalo adjusted its strategy and started bringing the heat – but that didn’t work, either. The Bills blitzed nine times in that game and Mahomes completed 7-of-9 passes and threw two touchdowns. Overall, Mahomes completed 29-of-38 throws for 325 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions and took one sack. Fast forward to the Week 5 matchup between these two teams and Buffalo returned to its non-blitzing packages and stymied Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bills won the game 38-20 while forcing Mahomes into three turnovers (two interceptions and a lost fumble). After posting 125+ passer ratings in his first two career starts against Buffalo, Mahomes had a 70.9 rating in the third matchup while completing 61.1% of his passes and taking a pair of sacks. His yards per attempt went from 8.6 in the first two matches to 5.0 in this year’s contest.
The interesting thing to watch in this game is whether or not Buffalo will stick with the no-blitz regular season strategy or bring out the blitz packages in the playoffs like they did last season. While it didn’t work last year, with Mahomes’ improvement against non-blitzing defenses it might not be smart to let him sit back against a four-man rush either. After all, the Bills defense generates pressure on 41.5% of plays when they bring a blitz, which is the highest mark in the NFL. While Buffalo is more middle-of-the-pack when it comes to blitzing (26.0% blitz rate according to NGS, 15th-highest), the team is very successful when it does. Mahomes generally doesn’t allow the pressure to get to him, though, as his time to throw against blitzes is 2.3 seconds and increases to 2.9 seconds when not blitzed. If the Bills decide to bring extra pressure, they need to be sure they can get to Mahomes very quickly. If not, they could be in for a repeat of last year’s AFC Championship, which would not be good news for Bills Mafia.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Overcoming The Big Number
We’ve mentioned it before, but the Chiefs are an extremely streaky team when it comes to covering the spread: from Week 11 of 2019 through Week 8 of 2020 (including playoffs), Kansas City went 15-2 against-the-spread. Then, from Week 9 of 2020 through Week 9 of this season (including playoffs), the Chiefs went 3-16-1 ATS. Following that Week 9 failed cover against the Packers, Kansas City went on a six-game cover streak and is now 7-2 ATS in its last nine games, including last week’s win and cover against Pittsburgh. Kansas City was also one of the league’s best Over bets, going 10-7 in that regard in the regular season (tied for second-most Overs) and its last six games have all gone Over with the total score averaging 57.5 points per game.
Buffalo was a strong road team this season; although its 5-3 ATS record isn’t dominant, its average point differential to the spread on the road is +8.6 which is second-best in the league (only Cincinnati, +9.7, is better). The average margin of victory overall on the road this season is 13.3 points per game, four points better than the second place Bengals. In their last 13 road games, the Bills are 9-4 ATS (69%) and over their past 18 away games, the Over is 12-5-1 (71%), including 6-3 (67%) this season. Since entering the league, Josh Allen has been a road underdog 18 times, going 11-6-1 ATS (65%) in those contests. However, he’s 0-2 ATS in the playoffs in that situation. Interesting note about the total when it comes to Josh Allen as a road dog: in the first 10 occurrences, all 10 went Under the total. Since then, the Over has hit in seven of the past eight, including six straight. In two career games facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead, both went Over. Additionally, in the Bills last seven road games where the total was set at 50+, all seven finished Over.