CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-8) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7-1), 8:15ET
Line: Browns -1, Total: 42
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Baker Holding Back Browns
It’s becoming harder and harder for Baker Mayfield defenders to back the former number one overall draft pick as he’s in danger of posting a .500 or below for the third time in his four-year career. It looked like 2020 might be a corner-turning season for him after leading the Browns to a playoff victory, but he has suffered from injuries and regression throughout a tough 2021 so far. The pieces are there, but following Sunday afternoon’s games, the Browns have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Let’s start with the Browns offensive line. According to ESPN analytics, the Browns are tied for the 3rd-best pass-block win rate in the NFL. Additionally, guard Joel Bitonio rates out as the best pass-blocking guard in the NFL (97%), guard Wyatt Teller rates out as the seventh-best pass-blocking guard (95%), center JC Tretter is the third-best center (97%) and tackle Jedrick Wills is the 10th-best tackle (92%) – four of Cleveland’s five starters are among the Top 10 at their position at pass-blocking, and Baker is pressured on only 22.1% of dropbacks, which is 21st-highest among quarterbacks. Yet, Mayfield is still sacked on 8.2% of his dropbacks, which is the highest mark of his career.
Despite having the time to throw, Mayfield’s bad throw percentage of 21.1% is the fourth highest in the league and the highest among non-rookie signal callers; his 75.1% on-target throw percentage ranks 24th. Additionally, his expected completion percentage of 64.1% is higher than his actual completion percentage of 62.4, giving him a CPOE of -1.7 which rates as the ninth worst among qualified QBs.
The Browns have a championship-caliber defensive line that seems to be going to waste, as well. Edge rusher Myles Garrett is the best in the business according to ESPN Analytics, with a pass-rush win rate of 26% that ranks better than any other EDGE defender (and only trails LA’s Aaron Donald, 28%, among all defensive players). On the other side, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is tied for 7th with a 23% pass rush win rate, which has led to Cleveland’s fourth-best pass-rush win rate as a team (49%).
When we looked at Aaron Rodgers in Sunday’s edition, we noted that Rodgers performed very well in traditional metrics while lagging behind in the more advanced numbers. Unfortunately for Mayfield, both look bad. He’s one of six quarterbacks who have 15 or fewer touchdown passes and 10+ interceptions – and one of three non-rookies in that camp, along with Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill and Carolina’s Sam Darnold. His completion percentage is sixth worst with the only non-rookies who are worse being Darnold and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts. His passer rating is eighth worst, his QBR is seventh worst and has neither a fourth-quarter comeback nor a game-winning drive this season.
Cleveland has some big decisions to make with regard to its quarterback, who is signed for one more season under his rookie deal but desperately wants a max extension. However, with the season he’s put together so far (career-low 37.8 QBR), it’s hard to justify paying him like the upper-tier quarterbacks. That makes it more likely that he will play one more season without a new deal and we’ll be having the same discussion again come the end of the 2022 season.
*All stats and rankings are entering Week 17
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Playing Down to Competition
Neither Cleveland nor Pittsburgh has been particularly good against the number this season with the Browns (7-8 ATS) slightly better than their biggest division rival Steelers (6-9 ATS). Pittsburgh has been inept at covering against lesser competition, as well, failing to cover in six straight games against teams with a losing record and four of those have come at home. However, the Steelers are very tough to beat when installed as home underdogs, going 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven opportunities, including 2-0 this year. Dating back to 2000, the Steelers are an impressive 17-3-3 ATS (85% cover) in their last 23 games as a home underdog. Ben Roethlisberger is 14-8 ATS (64% cover) as an underdog (3-1 as home dog), while Baker Mayfield is just 12-19 ATS (39% cover) as a favorite in his career.
On the other side, Cleveland has been a dismal road favorite, going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 such games dating back to 2014. The Browns have also struggled recently, going 2-4 ATS in their last six, and against the Steelers, failing to cover four straight and going 1-5 ATS in their past six meetings with Pittsburgh. This game will likely represent just the second time in at least the past 30 years that the Browns will be favored in Pittsburgh – the Steelers won that meeting straight-up, 20-13, in December of 2019. Another trend to consider is that over the past five NFL seasons, favorites are just 26-49 ATS (35% cover) after a game with a turnover margin of minus-3 or worse.
In terms of Totals, the Under is 4-1 in the past five Cleveland games, and Mike Tomlin is 39-17 Under (70% cover) as the Steelers head coach when facing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. The Under is also 65-28 (70%) for home teams coming off a road loss by 21+ points in the second half of the season since 2012.
*NOTE: At the time of this writing, the Browns were a three-point favorite. However, due to the results of Sunday’s games, Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention while the Steelers remain alive (albeit barely). Because of this, the line has started to move. At the time of this update, the Browns are still favored by one point, but it bears monitoring throughout the day.