Mismatch for the Final Playoff Spot
In-depth preview of the final game of the NFL regular season, Chargers/Raiders
The NFL added a 17th game to the schedule for all teams and, thus, an 18th week to the season with the hopes that it would create more drama and playoff implications. However, very few games on Sunday contain massive playoff implications, and only one has a “win and get in” scenario for both teams involved. Because of that, we will focus on that game – Chargers at Raiders – and provide analysis for both teams.
Reminder that we will cover every playoff game through the Super Bowl and be on the lookout for a slight format change next week as we continue to provide some of the best analysis of the NFL that you can find. Thanks for all of your support!
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9-7) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (9-7), 8:20ET
Line: Chargers -3, Total: 49
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Helping Herbert
Coming off an Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in 2020, expectations were very high for Chargers’ second-year signal caller Justin Herbert. Herbert has been very good in 2021 – statistically, arguably better than last season – but the perception has frequently been that he has taken a step back this year. In terms of standard stats, Herbert has nearly an identical passing yards per game mark (289.1 in 2020 vs. 289.4 in 2021), his passer rating is slightly higher (99.5 this season vs. 98.3 last season), his completion percentage is better (67.3% in ’21 vs. 66.6% in ’20), he’s thrown more touchdown passes (35 in 16 starts this year vs. 31 in 15 starts in ’20), and he’s taken less sacks (28 this year vs 32 last). Additionally, he’s led the team to five fourth-quarter comebacks (tied for most in NFL with Ben Roethlisberger) and five game-winning drives this year, helping the team to a league-best 10.4 points per fourth quarter. Herbert had one fourth quarter comeback and three game-winning drives in 2020. The one area that he has regressed negatively would be interceptions, having thrown 14 this season after throwing 10 picks as a rookie.
In terms of advanced stats, Herbert has been much better in his sophomore year; he went from having an 18% bad-throw percentage and 76.5% on-target throw percentage as a rookie to 14% bad throw (tied for third in the NFL) and 81.5% on-target (second, trailing only Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, 82.8%). Herbert has been victimized by a league-high 34 drops this season, with 5.7% of his pass attempts having been dropped by his receivers, according to Pro Football Reference. There are 33 pass catchers in the NFL who have dropped at least six passes this season and four of them are Chargers; Keenan Allen has seven and Mike Williams, Jared Cook and Austin Ekeler each have six.
One area that the Chargers have excelled has been using their running game to set up the pass. Herbert has 1,421 passing yards off play-action this season (second in the NFL behind 1,553 yards from Buffalo’s Josh Allen) and 484 yards passing on RPO (run-pass option) plays. Out of Herbert’s 608 passing attempts this season, 204 of them have come on either play-action or RPO (33.6%) which has allowed Herbert to buy more time in the pocket. While Herbert faced pressure on 28.7% of dropbacks last season (sixth highest), that number has plummeted to 19.8% in 2021 (seventh lowest). He has also faced far few blitzes, as he saw an extra rusher once in every 3.8 dropbacks last year but sees a blitzer only once for every 4.5 dropbacks in 2021.
The reason that the Chargers are in a position needing a win in Week 18 to get into the playoffs has been much more about the defense than the offense. Herbert has led the team to 27.6 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league, while gaining 277.8 yards through the air (fourth most) and 6.0 yards per play (tied for third highest). And they’ve accomplished that despite an average time of possession that ranks 23rd in the NFL (29:23 per game). Part of the reason for that is the defense’s inability to stop the ground game – the Chargers allow 136.7 yards per game rushing, which is 30th in the league. Two weeks ago, during an embarrassing loss to Houston, they allowed the Texans to rush for a season-high 189 yards; Houston had gone eight straight games without totaling 100 yards on the ground before that performance. Three times this season the Chargers have allowed a team to score their season-high in points against them (Cleveland scored 42 in Week 5, Pittsburgh scored 37 in Week 11 and Houston scored 41 in Week 16) and they are tied with the Texans in allowing the sixth-most points per game (26.5).
Justin Herbert has done everything in his power to lead his team to a successful season, but his defense and at times his receivers haven’t pulled their weight. It may be up to their second-year star to put the team on his back again this week and propel the team into the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Thankfully for him and the team, the Raiders are one of his favorite opponents; in his three career meetings with Las Vegas, Herbert has completed 67% of his throws for 287 yards per game, seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
Lacking Discipline
If you’re looking for a reason why the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that started the season 5-2, is still fighting for a playoff spot after winning its last three games, look no further than The 33rd Team’s Discipline Index where the team ranks dead-last in the NFL. The Raiders are charged with a league-high 66.6 penalty yards per game, and they average 1.5 giveaways per contest, as well. Their minus-11 turnover differential is tied for third worst in the league (only Jets, -13, and Jaguars, -22, are worse). Should they beat the Chargers without winning the turnover battle by more than one, they could become the first team to have a double-digit negative turnover differential to make the playoffs since the 2012 Indianapolis Colts (-12). In fact, since that season no team has made the playoffs with a turnover differential worse than minus-7. The Raiders have also allowed opponents to score four defensive/special teams touchdowns (two pick-sixes, one fumble return and one kickoff return), which is tied for fourth most in the league. Meanwhile, they are one of only two teams (with Detroit) to have scored zero non-offensive touchdowns. Amazingly, during their current three-game winning streak the Raiders have a minus-7 turnover differential and have not had a single takeaway. In fact, the Raiders’ defense has forced only one turnover in their past six games combined. Since their Week 8 bye, the Raiders have turned the ball over 19 times while forcing only four (-15 differential). That’s quite a drop from the +4 margin over the first seven weeks when they forced nine miscues and committed only five turnovers.
Las Vegas has scored only 34 total touchdowns this season; no other team with a reasonable playoff chance — at least 25%, according to FiveThirtyEight — has fewer than 45 TDs. In addition to the Raiders poor turnover differential, they have a poor point differential, as well. Las Vegas has been outscored by 68 points this season. If they beat Chargers, but by fewer than 19 points, they would become just the eighth team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a point differential of minus-50 or worse (the 2010 Seahawks are the worst playoff team ever by this measure, finishing the regular season with a minus-97-point differential).
So, the Raiders commit a lot of penalties, turn the ball over, score less than their opponents, are bad on third down (36.5% conversion rate, eighth worst), and are bad in the fourth quarter. They allow the second-most opponent fourth quarter points (9.8 per game), while scoring just 5.4. But here they are, one win away from a trip to playoffs. The 2021 Las Vegas Raiders, a statistical anomaly.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
One-Sided Rivalry
The Chargers have covered two straight games against the Raiders and are 8-4 ATS against their AFC rivals over the last 12 matchups. And regardless of where the Raiders have called home (Vegas, Oakland, or LA), the Chargers have been dominant in those buildings, going 22-8 ATS in their last 30 trips to the Raiders’ stadiums over the past 30 years. The saving grace for the Raiders is that most of that came when they were favored; the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Chargers when they are a home underdog.
Las Vegas is 7-9 overall this season and has failed to cover in five of its past seven home games. The team is also 1-10 ATS vs. bad defenses (allowing 24+ points per game) in the second half of the season since 2019. On the other side, the Chargers are 8-8 ATS overall in 2021, but are a profitable 6-3 ATS on the road in their last nine games dating back to the end of last season. Additionally, seven of the last nine times the Chargers were the road favorite, the game went Over the total. The Over is also on a current five-game streak in L.A. games where the Chargers and their opponents are averaging 60 total points per contest. The Raiders recently snapped a long streak of games going Over the total when they are installed as home underdogs; from mid-2019 through mid-2021, the Raiders had 11 straight games finish Over the number when they were a home underdog, however, the past two such games have both gone Under the total.
The public and the sharps are both backing the Chargers in this one, with 57% of the tickets, 66% of the money and sharp action all going toward the road favorites. As far as the total, the bets are heavily on the Over (67%), but the money is split 50/50, although there is sharp action on the Over, according to Action Network. This game will bear watching throughout Sunday, though, because it’s expected to have a large audience, and therefore a large betting handle. We could see shifts if the money and/or bets really start to come in hard on either side.