GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-1) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-0) 8:15P(ET)
LINE: 49ERS -3.5, TOTAL: 50
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Jimmy G is the Key
When you look at head coach Kyle Shanahan’s record as the head coach of the 49ers, it’s not overly impressive. Since taking the job in 2017, Shanahan owns a 31-35 (47% winning pct.) mark in the regular season, which includes a 13-3 season in 2019 that ended with a Super Bowl loss to Kansas City. But a deeper look provides some very important context: Kyle Shanahan’s team has been much better when Jimmy Garoppolo is under center. With his team sitting at 0-8 during their first season, Shanahan and GM John Lynch made a rare in-season trade, acquiring Garoppolo from the Patriots on October 30. Jimmy G took over the starting gig in Week 13 and the 1-10 49ers would win their final five games to finish 6-10. The following season, Garoppolo would tear his ACL in Week 3 and SF would stumble to a 4-12 record. Jimmy G was healthy for the 2019 season, which as noted above led to a Super Bowl appearance, but would struggle again with injuries in 2020, another poor season for the team (6-10). Added all together, the 49ers are 24-8 (75% winning pct.) in Jimmy Garoppolo starts since 2017 and 7-27(20.5%) when any other QB does. Many fans are clamoring for #3 overall pick Trey Lance to get his shot, but they should be careful what they wish for: a healthy Jimmy G has proven to be a very good weapon for Kyle Shanahan and Company.
One other interesting note on the Niners: they have started this season 2-0, the third time they have done that in the last decade. The prior two times were in 2012 and 2019 … and both of those two teams went on to appear in, and lose, the Super Bowl.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Battle of ATS Stars
Both starting quarterbacks in this matchup, Jimmy G and Aaron Rodgers, have been good against the spread in their careers. Garoppolo is 21-15-1 ATS in his 37 career starts (including playoffs) and Rodgers is 119-87-6. However, including playoffs, Rodgers is just 3-6-1 ATS against San Francisco. And, in the two meetings between these teams where Garoppolo and Rodgers have both started, Jimmy G has won and covered both matchups (both in 2019, including the NFC Championship).
Split Tickets
The public seems very split on this matchup. According to Action Network, the Packers are attracting 54% of the tickets, but the 49ers are collecting 54% of the handle. The service has also tracked sharp money on the 49ers, but three of their top NFL experts like Green Bay plus the points.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Importance of Depth
When Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari tore his ACL late last season, it was going to be tough for him to get back in time for the beginning of 2021. In August, that was confirmed when the team placed him on the PUP list, meaning he would miss at least the first six weeks of the season, leaving Aaron Rodgers’ blindside in the hands of 2019 2nd round pick Elgton Jenkins. Jenkins was drafted as an offensive guard who mostly played center in college, earned PFWA All-Rookie honors in 2019 as a left guard and was a Pro Bowler in 2020, again mostly playing left guard (also started three games at center and one at right tackle). There’s no question that Jenkins is a great offensive lineman -- he’s started 34 out of 36 games in his career and his honors have been noted. But moving out to left tackle provided a whole new challenge for the former Mississippi State Bulldog — a challenge in which he has been up to the task. According to Pro Football Focus, Jenkins has earned a 75.2 (out of 100) grade through two weeks this season, which ranks 8th in the NFL among all qualified tackles and 6th in the NFL among left tackles. Unfortunately for Green Bay, Jenkins will now miss this contest, which means that their depth will be tested even further. Good news for Green Bay is that Jenkins isn’t the only strong blocker on their O-Line: Billy Turner, Green Bay’s right tackle, is ranked 14th among qualified tackles with a 70.7 overall grade. Two of their guards, Jon Runyan (79.6) and Lucas Patrick (73.9), are both among the Top 11 in guard grades and center Josh Myers (74.1) is fourth at his position. All of that is to say that it’s not the offensive line’s fault that Aaron Rodgers is the 5th-worst qualified QB in PFF grade at 57.3 (ahead of Tua Tagovailoa, Ben Roethlisberger, Trevor Lawrence and Davis Mills).
This game will provide a tough test for the Packers offensive line. Both 49ers edge rushers, Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa, have been Top 20 defensive ends this season, according to PFF. Plus, Nick Bosa’s 16.3% pressure rate when lined up outside the left tackle since 2019 ranks second among qualifying players and his 80 quarterback pressures in 2019 were more than any other rookie in the past decade. Add in that 49ers DT DJ Jones has earned an 81.8 grade (8th best in the NFL among interior defensive linemen) and you have the biggest test that Green Bay has faced so far this season. The Saints and Lions, the Packers’ first two opponents this season, don’t feature a single edge rusher or interior defensive lineman in the Top 25, according to PFF.