“It’s not me, it’s you” -- Sean McVay to Jared Goff, probably
Goff struggling without McVay; Stafford thriving with, plus how the Titans move on without Derrick Henry
TENNESSEE TITANS (6-2) AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-1), 8:20PM (ET)
Line: Rams -7.5, Total: 53
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
The End of King Henry’s Reign
Tennessee was dealt a devastating blow this week when superstar running back Derrick Henry had to undergo foot surgery that will end his season. Henry was dominating the NFL in a way that we haven’t seen in this new era of high-powered passing offenses. Henry nearly rushed for 1,000 yards this season despite playing only eight games. He leads the league in rushing attempts (219), yards (937) and touchdowns (10). He had established such a distance between the nearest competitors that he will likely remain in the Top 5 of all of those categories for several more weeks without ever seeing the field. Henry was the second Titans running back to be ruled out for the remainder of the season, as expected backup Darrynton Evans was placed on IR last Friday.
For the Titans, though, they have to keep moving. With a win over the Colts last week, they have the inside track to winning the AFC South for the second-straight season, something they have not done since the division was established in 2002. In fact, the Titans franchise (previously the Houston Oilers) have not won back-to-back division titles since before the NFL/AFL merger in 1970.
They signed 36-year-old Adrian Peterson this week, who rushed for 604 yards (3.9 yards per carry) and seven touchdowns last season with the Lions. He last rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2018 with Washington. Despite his age, Peterson has been durable, playing in all but one game over the last three seasons. The Titans have already said that even though Peterson has been with the team for less than a week, he will be their lead back on Sunday Night and could see as many as 15 touches in the contest.
While no one can replace Derrick Henry, truly a unicorn in today’s NFL, bringing in an aging unicorn may not have been the worst option. Expect to also see more of pass-catching back Jeremy McNichols, who has rushed only seven times (for 38 yards) this season but has 203 yards receiving on 21 catches (27 targets). The Titans will also likely activate Dontrell Hilliard for this game, the former Cleveland Brown and Tulane product who signed with the team after the Evans injury. If Hilliard (22 carries for 97 yards in career) is active, two of the three Titans running backs in this game will have been with the team for less than two weeks, while this is McNichols’ second season in Nashville.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
High-Score Incoming?
Tennessee has been very good against-the-spread this season, covering six of its eight games, including each of the past four. The Titans have been an underdog in four games this season, winning each game straight-up. They’ve covered six of their last seven as an underdog, and each cover was an outright victory. As far as the total, in the Titans last 12 games as an underdog, the total has gone Over in 11 of them (including three of four this season). In their past six games as a road underdog, the total has gone Over in every contest. In the Rams eight games this season, the Over is 5-2-1. However, in the Rams last 17 games as a home favorite dating back to the beginning of the 2019 season, the Under has cashed in 13 times.
As far as the Rams’ performance against-the-number, they are 7-3 ATS against a team with a winning record. But they are 3-7-1 in their last 11 games as a home favorite of at least seven points.
While the public has jumped on the Rams in light of the Derrick Henry news (67% of the bets are on LA), the money has been much closer to even (51% on the Rams), according to Action Network. They are reporting sharp action on the Rams, as well. As far as the total, 52% of the tickets are on the under, as well as 63% of the money and sharp action.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
“It’s not me, it’s you” -- Sean McVay to Jared Goff, probably
When the Rams traded Jared Goff to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, there were those who questioned the decision. After all, the Rams had a 42-20 record with the combination of Goff as the starting quarterback and Sean McVay as head coach, making the playoffs in three of four seasons, including a Super Bowl appearance in 2018.
But after an 0-8 start in Detroit, Goff is now 0-15 in his career as a starting quarterback without Sean McVay as his head coach. His yards-per-attempt this season (6.5) is lower than any season under McVay (Goff posted a 7.7 YPA in four seasons with McVay). His QBR of 30.3 is over 20 points lower than his worst with McVay (50.6 QBR in 2019). He’s taken 22 sacks in eight games this season; in 2019 and 2020 he was sacked 22 and 23 times, respectively, for the entire season. Despite 38.5 pass attempts per game, Goff is averaging under 250 yards passing for the first time since his pre-McVay season.
Now, let’s take a look at how Stafford has performed with McVay. He leads the NFL in QBR at 77.7, which would be the highest of his career. His QB rating this season is 118.0; in his 12-year Detroit career, his highest mark was 106.0 -- the only season he was over 100. After being sacked 2.3 times per game in his 165 starts with the Lions, Stafford has been sacked only seven times in eight games this season. In fact, Stafford’s 2.5% sack percentage is the lowest in the NFL. His 68.9% completion percentage this season also represents a career-high, as does his 9.1 yards/attempt and his touchdown percentage of 8.1%. He has an interception percentage of 1.5%, which is -- you guessed it -- a career-best (not counting his 1.0% in his 3-game season in 2010).
In 2019, Goff threw 22 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, while losing five fumbles in 16 starts. In 2020, he threw 20 TD passes and 13 picks with 4 lost fumbles in 15 starts. Through his first eight starts with the Rams, Stafford has thrown 22 touchdowns with four interceptions and has yet to lose a fumble. Over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, the Rams averaged 23.9 points per game. This year, they’re averaging 30.6 points.
It’s safe to say that Sean McVay is happy to have Matthew Stafford under center this season, as it’s added a dimension to the offense that they did not have with Goff -- the deep ball. According to Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff’s average intended air yards in the 2020 and 2021 seasons were each below 7.8 yards. Stafford is more than a yard higher at 8.8 this season. Goff’s average air yards to the sticks (AYTS) were in the negative in both seasons; Stafford is second in the NFL with a +0.5 AYTS (Lamar Jackson, +1.5).
Stafford has completely changed the Rams’ offense, and they have the second-best point differential in the NFL at +108 (Bills +120). They are 7-1 and well on their way to another playoff appearance. That’s when we will see if the trade has truly paid off; the knock on Stafford was that he never won a playoff game with the Lions (0-3). When it comes to quarterbacks and legacies, it boils down to how they play in January and February. Stafford has been great in September and October this season, but the big months are coming.