Is Dak Actually "Slumping?"
An in-depth look at Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes as we head towards the playoffs
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-5) AT DENVER BRONCOS (7-9), 4:30ET
Line: Chiefs -10.5, Total: 45
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Taking What They Give You
If you watch a Chiefs game, you’ll often hear the broadcasters talk about how defenses are taking away the deep ball from Patrick Mahomes and forcing him to work more underneath than in previous seasons. That is borne out in the stats, as well. Mahomes is set to post career lows in both air yards per pass (7.4) and air yards per completion (5.1) and each is at least one yard below his previous lows in each category – he had an 8.4 IAY and 6.3 CAY last season, ranking 13th in the NFL in both categories. Mahomes’ 5.1 CAY is tied with Taylor Heinicke, Davis Mills and Sam Darnold for third lowest in the league, ahead of only Ben Roethlisberger (4.7) and Jared Goff (4.4). Mahomes has been heavily dependent on his receivers working after the catch, which they’ve done extremely well this season – Mahomes leads all passers with 2,494 of his passing yards coming after the catch.
One other change is that teams are blitzing less frequently against the Chiefs than they have in the past, which they did a lot in 2020. Last season, opponents blitzed Mahomes once for every 4.6 dropbacks. In 2019, the blitzes came once every 4.9 dropbacks and in 2018 it was 5.0. But this year, opponents are bringing an extra rusher only one time per 6.2 dropbacks, which is the fewest blitzes per dropback faced by any NFL quarterback this season. Despite that, Mahomes has set a career high with 27 sacks taken in 2021, although his pressure rate has remained steady (22% in 2019, 2020 and 2021).
Getting pressure on Mahomes with four rushers is going to be key for teams trying to knock the Chiefs out of the playoffs in 2021. In games where teams have generated a 21% pressure rate or lower against the KC quarterback, the Chiefs are 7-1 (only loss was to Buffalo). But when Mahomes is pressured at a 22% rate or higher, the team is 4-4. In those losses, teams blitzed an average of only 5.2 times. In KC wins, opponents average 7.6 blitzes per game. It won’t be easy either, because according to ESPN Analytics, the Chiefs have the third-highest pass-block win rate as a team in the league at 66% (only the Rams, 69%, and Eagles, 67%, are higher).
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Strong Straight-Up, Average Against the Number
Despite being 11-5 on the season and the #2 seed in the AFC, the Chiefs are exactly .500 against the spread (8-8 this season), though they’ve been slightly better on the road (4-3 ATS) than they have at home (4-5 ATS). They’ve been much better in the latter part of the season with last Sunday’s loss against the Bengals snapping a streak of six straight ATS wins. They are 4-2 in their last six games as a road favorite, although they haven’t been double-digit road favorites since 2018. In fact, the Chiefs have been a double-digit road favorite only twice in the past 25 seasons (once in 2018 and once in 2017) and they are 0-2 ATS in those games. In the Andy Reid era, KC is 17-6 ATS (74% cover) on the road vs. teams with a losing record, outscoring those opponents by 12.7 points per game.
Denver, meanwhile, is 7-9 ATS this season but has dropped three straight and five of the past seven. Plus, the Chiefs have dominated the Broncos in recent memory, going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings (12-0 straight up). The Broncos have never beaten Mahomes in his eight starts, and they haven’t defeated the Chiefs since September of 2015. The games haven’t been particularly close either, as the average final score over the past 12 meetings has been Chiefs 29, Broncos 18. Kansas City has scored 20+ points in every game during the streak; Denver has scored fewer than 20 points in eight of the 12 games. The Broncos haven’t scored 20+ points against Kansas City since October of 2018. The Chiefs’ dominance has led the public to side with them – 66% of the bets have been placed on the road favorite. However, 60% of the money, including sharp action, has been wagered on Denver, according to Action Network. That could be due to the Broncos perfect 7-0 ATS home mark when coming off a poor offensive game (14 points or less) in the three-year Vic Fangio era.
Important note on totals: Denver has been the biggest Under team in the NFL this season with 12 of its 16 games staying Under the total. The Under is also 6-1 in the past seven games of this rivalry. The Chiefs, though, are one of six teams in the league who have had more Over than Unders, as they are 9-7 to the Over this season and 5-2 to the Over when on the road.
DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-7), 8:15ET
Line: Cowboys -4, Total: 43.5
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
“Slumping” Dak
There’s been a lot of talk lately about Dak Prescott’s “slump” – after getting Dallas off to a 5-1 start, Prescott was getting MVP buzz for his performance. Following a Week 6 win over the Patriots in which the Dallas quarterback threw for 445 yards, he was completing 73% of his passes for 1,813 yards with 16 touchdowns, four interceptions and had a passer rating of 115.0, while taking just eight sacks as the team headed into its Week 7 bye. Prescott would miss the team’s next game – a win at Minnesota – due to a calf injury. Since his return, Dallas has gone 5-4 and clinched the NFC East title. However, Prescott’s numbers haven’t been as sparkling (92.3 rating), thus creating the “slump” talk. Is it really a slump? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
In the past nine games, Prescott has only twice thrown for over 300 yards and his yards per game have dropped from 302 over the first six weeks to 260 per game since. His completion percentage (65%) has dropped by eight points, he’s throwing nearly a touchdown less per contest (2.7 to 1.8) and taking nearly a full sack more (2.2 to 1.3). He’s also averaging nearly two yards less per pass attempt (6.6 to 8.4). For the season, his 7.3 yards per attempt represent his lowest mark since 6.8 in 2017.
Diving into some of the advanced numbers of this season paints an interesting picture. Prescott is one of the most well-protected quarterbacks in the NFL according to Pro Football Reference. His 19.4% pressure rate ranks as the fifth lowest in the league, though that may have something to do with Prescott’s pocket presence because according to ESPN Analytics the Cowboys have the 23rd-highest pass-block win rate at 58% as a team. He’s also not benefitting as much from play-action as he did in his full 2019 season. Prescott ranked third in the NFL in 2019 with 129 pass attempts off play-action and was also third with 1,239 yards on play-action passes (9.6 yards per attempt). This season, though, Prescott ranks 18th with 879 yards passing off play-action while attempting 113 throws (7.8 yards per attempt).
Despite having protection and time (2.7 seconds per dropback), Prescott is not pushing the ball down-the-field like he did two seasons ago. In 2019, he had the third-highest air yards per completion at 7.7 – this year, that number has dropped by two full yards (5.7) and ranks 20th in the league, according to PFR. That change from deeper passes to shorter ones is a big reason for the “slump” that we’ve seen in the later part of the season. From Weeks 2-7, Prescott averaged more than six air yards per completion in each of those five games. Since then, he’s done that only twice in eight starts – one of which was the Sunday night game in Week 16 against a depleted Washington Football Team in which he threw for 330 yards and four touchdowns (the other was a loss against Las Vegas in Week 12, the only other 300+ yard passing game Prescott has had since Week 6). A lot of that is likely due to how often teams blitz Prescott – the Dallas quarterback has faced 181 blitzes this season, the most in the NFL. Earlier, we discussed that Patrick Mahomes’ most-blitzed season was 2020 when he faced a blitzer on one out of every 4.6 dropbacks. This season, Prescott sees a blitz once for every 3.4 dropbacks, which could explain why he’s utilizing a shorter passing game than in 2019 when he was blitzed on one out of every 4.1 dropbacks.
Dallas will host a playoff game next weekend regardless of what happens on Sunday, but if the franchise expects to make a deep run this season (1995 was the last time the Cowboys appeared in an NFC Championship game), they will need to see more of the Prescott from the early part of the season. The team should consider working the ball down the field and utilizing more play-action to do so, two areas in which their star quarterback is very strong.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Road Warriors
Even after failing to cover last week in a loss against Arizona, the Cowboys are still tied with Green Bay for the best spread record in the league at 12-4 ATS. Their strong run extends beyond this season, as well, as the team is 17-7 ATS over its last 24 games dating back to the second half of last season. They’ve been a heavy Under team, as well, with eight of their past 10 games going Under the total and their past five road games all finishing Under as well. Speaking of the road, the Cowboys have been road warriors recently, going 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games away from Jerry’s World. They’ve also covered all four games this season in which they’ve been installed as road favorites, the only team in the league with no ATS losses as a road favorite while playing at least three such contests.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have been a middle-of-the-pack team against the number, going 8-7-1 ATS this season. However, they’ve dropped three of their past four as home underdogs and are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 such games. The NFL has been trending toward more offense in recent seasons, but that trend hasn’t held in 2021, relative to the Over/Under – 55% of games this season have gone Under the total. The Eagles though, are one of six teams who have more overs than Unders this season (9-7 Over), while 20 teams (including Dallas, 7-9) have more Under games than Over games this season.
Despite the year-long profitability of Dallas, bettors are backing Philadelphia with 56% of the tickets, 72% of the money and sharp action all on the birds, according to Action Network. Due to that action, this line – which opened at Cowboys -7.5 – has fallen all the way down to -4, though neither team has much to play for in the game since both have clinched playoff spots. An interesting note about this rivalry is that the home team has won six straight meetings (SU and ATS) by an average margin of 15.8 points per game. There is heavy public betting on the Over (82%) but much less of the money (54%) is headed in that direction, because sharps are betting the Under. In the past two seasons, Dallas is 8-1 Under on the road when the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points.