NEW YORK JETS (2-5) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-5), 8:20ET
Line: Colts -10.5, Total: 46
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Who is Mike White?
After #2 overall pick Zach Wilson got hurt, all eyes turned to the Jets’ backup quarterback, Mike White. It seemed as if the Jets weren’t even sold that White could lead the team in Wilson’s stead, as they made a trade for veteran Joe Flacco. However, Flacco didn’t have enough time to learn the offense to start, so they ran Mike White out against the AFC’s #1 seed, Cincinnati, and everyone in the football world assumed the Bengals would easily roll.
But White shocked everyone when he led the NFL in Week 8, throwing for 405 yards on 37-45 passing with three touchdowns and two interceptions. His 37 completions were the most ever in a starting debut and he became just the second QB to ever throw for 400+ yards in his first start (Cam Newton). He was named AFC Player of the Week for his efforts and his jersey and the game ball have been put on display in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Despite trailing by 11 points midway through the fourth quarter, White led the Jets back with two touchdown passes in the final five minutes to secure a dramatic 34-31 win. New York came into the game as 11.5-point underdogs, becoming the first double-digit underdog to win a game in the NFL this season.
But who is Mike White and where did he come from? Prior to the NFL, White started his college career at the University of South Florida, and he got five starts as a true freshman. He was named the team’s starter going into his sophomore year but struggled mightily. White completed just over 50% of his passes and had an 8-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He left the program and transferred to Western Kentucky, where he was forced to sit out the 2015 season due to the NCAA’s transfer rules. In two years as the starter for the Hilltoppers from 2016-17, White compiled over 8,500 passing yards, completed over 65% of his passes, and threw for 63 touchdowns while tossing 15 interceptions. In his college career, White threw for over 11,000 yards and had 74 touchdowns.
Despite being drafted in the 5th round in 2018 by the Dallas Cowboys, White did not take a single snap until this season. He spent his first season as Dallas’ third-string QB but was waived by the team heading into 2019. The Jets picked him up and added him to their practice squad, where he spent the entire season. In 2020, White bounced between the Jets’ practice squad and their active roster, but still never saw the field. He made the team this year as Wilson’s primary backup and finally got his chance to shine. And shine, he did. But Vegas doesn’t believe the hype, as the Jets find themselves as double-digit underdogs again this week. White can’t lead the Jets to the second double-digit underdog win in two weeks … can he?
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Double-Digit Dogs
With all the talk about double-digit underdogs, it only makes sense to see how the Jets have performed as a big dog over the past five years. Turns out, not particularly well. New York has been installed as at least a 10-point underdog 17 times since the start of 2016. That’s the second-most in the NFL over that span (Dolphins, 18). They are the only team that has been a double-digit dog at least once in each of those five seasons (including this year). In those 17 contests, the team is 6-11 against-the-spread. However, they have won two of the past three straight-up (in addition to the Cincinnati win, they beat the Rams last season as a 17-point underdog). Those were the only two games the team won straight-up and they have failed to cover in six of the last nine occurrences. Additionally, the under has cashed in five of the last eight such games.
On the other side, the Colts have been a 10+-point favorite four times since the start of 2019, going 2-2 ATS in those games. However, they did face the Jets in 2020 as an 11.5-point favorite and won the game 36-7. In all four of those games where the Colts were a double-digit favorite, the under hit. Overall, the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
While Action Network is reporting sharp action on the Jets and 58% of the bets have gone that direction, the Colts have attracted 70% of the money. With the Jets coming of their incredible upset and the Colts coming off of a devastating loss in which Carson Wentz made multiple ill-advised throws, the public is riding the green wave. But the bigger money is on the Colts, eschewing the most recent results.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
So, is Carson Wentz Good or…?
As a starter in the NFL, Carson Wentz is almost exactly .500 (38-37-1). He had an outstanding year in 2017, winning 11 of 13 starts before getting hurt and watching Nick Foles lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory. Outside of that season, Wentz has only posted one other winning record, 9-7 in 2019. In his other four years, including this one, he’s been below the .500-mark. Since the start of 2020, he’s 6-13-1 and has thrown 18 interceptions.
He threw two bad interceptions in last week’s loss against Tennessee, a pick-6 on a screen pass that gave the Titans the lead in the fourth quarter and a throw into triple-coverage in overtime that set up Randy Bullock’s game-winning field goal. Up until last week, Wentz had thrown just one interception as a Colt, and had gone five-straight games without tossing a pick -- the longest streak of his career. The Colts are 0-2 this season when Wentz throws an interception and 3-3 when he doesn’t. In Colts’ wins, Wentz has averaged 26 passing attempts. In Colts’ losses, that number is 38.4 and he’s thrown 30+ passes in each one.
Wentz’ numbers this season are eerily similar to another QB that we recently discussed -- the perfectly-average Kirk Cousins. This season, Cousins is averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt, has thrown 14 TDs and two INTs, has a QBR of 53.6, and has led Minnesota to a 3-4 record. Wentz is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt, has thrown 14 TDs and three INTs, has a QBR of 54.1, and has led Indianapolis to a 3-5 record. Cousins has a career record that is one game below .500 (54-55-2), while Wentz is one game above, as mentioned earlier.
So, is Carson Wentz any good? The simple answer is: we don’t really know. He’s basically league-average, and he can make plays that make you say “WOW! I can’t believe he just did that!” The problem is that he also makes plays that make you say, “Wow … I can’t believe he just did THAT…”
Here’s what we wrote about Cousins in the final paragraph last week: “Cousins is a great example of what happens when you surround a solid NFL quarterback with elite talent around him. When Cousins was surrounded with All-Pro receivers, he thrived. When he wasn’t, he didn’t.” Wentz is very similar, except in Indianapolis it’s not about the receivers, it’s about the running game. Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 100+ yards three times this season -- all of the Colts’ victories. His high in Colts’ losses is 70 yards. So, when you give Carson Wentz a running game to lean on and allow him to use play-action and not be forced to try to go win the game, he thrives. When you don’t, he doesn’t.