FULL NFL SLATE IS FINALLY HERE!
Breakdown of 3 of the biggest Sunday games: BUF/PIT, KC/CLE, LAR/CHI
Welcome to another edition of STAT Stack! In this issue, we’ll be looking at the first Sunday slate of the 2021 NFL season, focusing on the biggest games in each window: Steelers/Bills (early kickoff), Chiefs/Browns (late kickoff) and Bears/Rams (Sunday Night Football).
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5) 1PM (ET)
TWO THINGS THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Some Constants Remain, But Many Do Not
Ben Roethlisberger returns for his 18th season leading the black-and-gold, and he brings back an extremely talented wide receiver core. JuJu Smith-Schuster signed a one-year deal to stay with the team and attempt to re-establish himself as an elite receiver, while breakout young stars Chase Claypool (2nd year) and Diontae Johnson (3rd year) give him plenty of firepower to mesh with. But this offseason was more about what the Steelers lost, which included a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.
Center Maurkice Pouncey and TE Vance McDonald both retired and several other key starters left in free agency: RB James Conner (Cardinals), LB Bud Dupree (Titans), CB Mike Hilton (Bengals), OT Alejandro Villanueva (Ravens) and G Matt Feiler (Chargers). Plus, the team released six-time Pro Bowl guard David DeCastro in June after it was revealed he would need an ankle surgery that has him contemplating retirement. All told, the Steelers only return one starter on the offensive line -- RT Zach Banner -- and he’s currently on IR. He won’t play until at least Week 4 as he continues to recover from a torn ACL that he suffered in last year’s season opener.
The Steelers did add some new talent, most notably in the draft, using their first-round pick on Alabama RB Najee Harris -- who is expected to immediately step into a three-down workhorse role -- and second-round selection Penn State TE Pat Freiermuth -- who caught 16 touchdown passes in 30 career games in Happy Valley. That’s a lot of turnover for a Pittsburgh team that started last season 11-0 before stumbling down the stretch and finishing 12-4, culminating with an embarrassing Wild Card loss to the rival Browns, who raced out to a 28-0 lead before ultimately ending the Steelers season, 48-37.
There will be plenty of new faces donning the black-and-gold in Week 1 and it will be interesting to see how the new team gels early in the season.
Josh Allen -- Finally Elite?
After two relatively mediocre seasons under center for the Bills, QB Josh Allen transformed into one of the best players in the NFL in 2020. He finished 2nd in MVP voting to Aaron Rodgers with a meteoric rise in his production -- his completion percentage jumped from 56% in his first two seasons to 69% in 2020, with his QB rating increasing from 78.2 to 107.2. Allen threw for over 4,500 yards, accounted for 46 TDs (37 pass, 8 rush, 1 receiving) and threw 10 interceptions. He broke single-season franchise records for TD passes, completions (396), completion percentage (69.2), passing yards (4,544) and total touchdowns. After leading Buffalo to its first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1993 (the last of the Bills’ infamous four consecutive Super Bowl losses), Allen was handsomely rewarded in early August when he signed a six-year contract extension worth up to $258 million, with $150 million guaranteed, making him the second-highest-paid quarterback annually in the NFL behind Patrick Mahomes.
Obviously, a major difference was the arrival of All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs, who led the NFL with 127 catches and 1,535 yards last season. This offseason, the Bills added another veteran to the WR room, Emmanuel Sanders. Although Sanders is now 34, he provides another stable presence on the outside and has reached the 60-catch mark in each of the past three seasons.
One area where Buffalo will need to improve to help Allen is in the running game. The Bills’ leading rusher last season, third-year back Devin Singletary, totaled just 687 yards on the ground, despite playing in all 16 regular-season games. He added just a total of 63 yards rushing in the team’s three playoff games against the Colts, Ravens and Chiefs. Their other main back, 2020 third-round pick Zack Moss, missed three regular-season games and two playoff games due to injury, and totaled only 502 yards on the ground in his 14 appearances.
While many of the Allen doubters have gone quiet, the expectations in Buffalo have been ratcheted up -- Buffalo is tied with Baltimore for the third-highest Vegas win total over/under at 11, trailing Tampa Bay (12) and Kansas City (12.5). The Bills will need another high-level season from Allen and an improved ground game to repeat the run of last season.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Recent History Favors BUF, But Not Long-Term
These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons, and Buffalo has won and covered in both games, including this past December when the Bills won 26-16. But in the 10 previous matchups, Pittsburgh was 9-1 against the spread. As far as the total is concerned, seven of the last 10 contests between these two have gone under the number.
Big Ben the Anti-Mahomes?
As noted earlier in this post, Mahomes has been terrific in the month of September … but Roethlisberger has not been so great. His overall winning percentage in September is 50%, easily his worst month (his next-worst month is December at 68%). His Steelers teams have been even worse ATS: In the past 12 September games started by Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 3-9 vs. the number. Conversely, Allen’s Bills are 5-2 ATS in September over the past two seasons.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Young Gun vs. Wily Vet
While Allen was putting up monster numbers for the Bills, Big Ben was struggling a bit in his 17th season. When taking a dive into the differences between these two passers, a trend emerges: Allen was more consistent in generating big plays through the air than Roethlisberger in 2020. Allen’s completion percentage on throws 20+ yards down the field was 40% to Big Ben’s 30%, according to Next Gen Stats. Additionally, Allen was 8th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt in 2020 at 7.7, while Roethlisberger finished 29th at 6.4. For reference, Andy Dalton finished just ahead of Ben, while Alex Smith and Tua Tagovailoa finished just behind. While Ben attempted the third-most passes in the NFL (608), he threw for the 16th-most yards (3,803). Now, that’s not all on Roethlisberger: His receivers dropped 41 passes last year, led by Diontae Johnson, whose 16 drops topped the NFL. Four of the Steelers’ main pass-catchers last season (Johnson, James Washington, James Conner and Eric Ebron) had drop rates of greater than 10%.
It wasn’t just the passing offense, either -- the Steelers had the sixth-worst yards per play in the NFL, ahead of only the Giants, Bengals, Eagles, Washington and the Jets. That’s why the team promoted a new offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, who was their QB coach in 2020. According to Pro Football Focus, the Steelers have implemented some of Canada’s tendencies in the preseason, such as a 61% shift/motion rate (second in the NFL) and reduced their shotgun rate to 54% (21st). Plus, as noted earlier, the Steelers will be relying on a completely new offensive line in Week 1, and according to PFF, the only player who grades out as above-average is left guard, Kevin Dotson, who allowed just one pressure on 206 pass-blocking snaps as a rookie in 2020.
The Steelers have plenty of explosive players on offense, but they’re going to need more consistency from their receivers catching the football, a better performance from their offensive line than they’re projected for and rookie RB Najee Harris to be the lead back they envisioned when they drafted him in the first round. If not, it could be a long season for Pittsburgh.
BROWNS @ CHIEFS (-5.5) 4:25PM (ET)
TWO THINGS THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Mahomes Sure Does Love Birthday Month
Patrick Mahomes is an elite NFL quarterback, everyone knows that. But does everyone know that he was born on September 17th? Does everyone also know that he has never lost an NFL game in the month of his birth? Mahomes is great in every month; that’s part of what comes with being one of the best QBs in the league. But he’s particularly good in September, posting a 10-0 record, 32 passing TDs and ZERO interceptions. September is the only month in which Mahomes has never lost and the only month in which he has never thrown a pick.
Looking for more crazy Mahomes splits that apply to this matchup? Try this one: He’s never lost a regular-season game that started in the late Sunday window (4pmET), going 12-0 in such contests, with a TD/INT rate of 27/3. More? Mahomes has never lost in the regular season to an AFC North opponent (6-0, his most wins against any division without a loss).
MORE? Mahomes has NEVER LOST A GAME THAT HE WON. OK, that one is a joke, but you get the point. If the Browns are to beat the Chiefs in this game, they would be upsetting some incredible streaks for the Chiefs signal-caller, and they’ll have to do it on the road as 5.5-point underdogs.
Show Me the Money!
Baker Mayfield has had an up-and-down start to his career through three seasons. As a rookie in 2018, he won NFL Rookie of the Week honors seven times, en route to winning the Pro Football Writers of America NFL Rookie of the Year Award. Browns fans believed that they had finally found their guy, after suffering through 29 starting QBs since their 1999 return to the NFL. However, Mayfield regressed in his second season, throwing 22 TDs to 21 INTs, having a completion percentage below 60, and seeing his QB rating drop nearly 15 points (from 93.7 to 78.8). Despite the struggles, the Browns stuck with Mayfield and in 2020 were rewarded with their first playoff berth since 2002 and their first playoff victory since 1994 … when their head coach was named Bill Belichick. Mayfield was much better statistically last season, with a TD/INT rate of 26/8 and getting his completion percentage up to 62.8%. He also took 14 fewer sacks in 2020 than in 2019 (40 in ’19, down to 26 in ’20).
Even though Mayfield bounced back and finally delivered that playoff victory, the Browns weren’t quite ready to fully commit this offseason. Despite contract-extension talks between the two sides, no agreement has yet been reached and it looks like there won’t be a deal until the offseason. That could be good news for Mayfield, because another strong season would likely put him in line for something similar to the $40 million-per-season deal that Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott received in his extension. But this is a Browns team that is in unusual territory: One with high expectations. According to Vegas oddsmakers, the Browns are tied with the fifth-highest over/under win total at 10.5. If Baker can’t help Cleveland live up to those lofty expectations, it could lead to some contentious offseason contract discussions. The Browns already picked up Mayfield’s 2022 option, so he would be set to become a free agent in 2023 if no agreement is reached.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Pros vs. Joes
This game represents a classic setup in gambling known as “Pros vs. Joes” … The public loves the Chiefs, but the professional bettors are on the Browns. Action Network has tracked sharp action on Cleveland, as well as two of their own NFL experts, while 68% of the total tickets are on the Chiefs. Despite the majority of bets being placed on the Chiefs, the line has moved a half-point in favor of the Browns from +6 to +5.5.
It’s not only the spread where we see this trend: The same is true of the total. While 71% of the bets are on the OVER, Action reports that more money has been bet on the UNDER (53%), and that includes sharp action. Also, if this is a line you are interested in betting, shop around: Some books have this total as low as 52.5, while others have it as high as 54.5.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
A Tale of Two Teams
Much like Mayfield’s career, the Browns’ offense was extremely up-and-down in 2020. In seven of their regular-season games last year, the team scored more than 30 points, and topped 40 three times. But they were held to fewer than 20 five times, including four games where they failed to score more than 10. That trend continued into the playoffs: In their Wild Card game against Pittsburgh, they scored 48 points. Then in the Divisional Round, they were held under 20 against the Chiefs.
In looking at the numbers, it’s tough to figure out exactly why the Browns were so inconsistent. The team was tied for 10th in the NFL in yards per play (5.8); they were very good on third down (8th in the NFL with a 44.9 conversion percentage); they didn’t turn the ball over (1.0 giveaways per game was tied for 4th-best in the NFL); and they turned their opponents over at an impressive rate (tied for 4th with 1.5 takeaways/game).
Like their quarterback, you might consider the Browns’ offense an enigma. The underlying numbers don’t really tell the story -- more likely, the high-scoring games balanced out the low-scoring and the result was a solid statistical season. But if Cleveland wants to take the next step, it needs to have consistency and prove that the team racking up 30+ points is the real Browns, and not the one being held to fewer than three scores.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
CHICAGO BEARS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (-7.5), 8:30PM (ET)
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
McVay’s New Toy
Rams coach Sean McVay made it clear this offseason that he wasn’t pleased with Jared Goff as his starting QB. To that end, he shipped Goff to Detroit in exchange for their former Pro Bowl quarterback, Matthew Stafford. Stafford has a much bigger arm than Goff and isn’t afraid to sling the ball around the field, something that was not in Goff’s wheelhouse. Stafford is the fastest QB in NFL history to reach several passing-yard thresholds, including 20,000 (71 games), 30,000 (109 games) and 40,000 yards (147 games).
Stafford also has a penchant for the dramatic, which should fit in perfectly in Los Angeles. According to Pro Football Reference, he has engineered 31 career fourth-quarter comeback victories and 38 game-winning drives, which includes eight of each in 2016, both of which are NFL records. He’s also been an ironman throughout his career; he missed 8 games in 2019, which snapped a streak of 136 straight regular-season starts, and bounced back in 2020 to start all 16 games for the Lions.
There’s long been a debate in sports media circles about whether Stafford truly is an elite QB who was held back by years of being surrounded by a subpar supporting cast, or whether he lacks the ability to elevate his team to that elite level. This season will be an important test -- the Rams have made the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, the same number of playoff appearances that Stafford had in 12 seasons in Detroit.
Are We Really Doing This Again?
Despite an obvious desire by Chicago Bears fans to see 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields start right from the jump, veteran free agent signee Andy Dalton will be under center in Week 1. Bears fans booed Dalton when he appeared in a preseason game and chanted Fields’ name while Dalton was on the field. But, the Bears’ front office and coaching staff are sticking with their plan to give Fields time to learn while leaning on the veteran.
Dalton has been a solid, if unspectacular, quarterback throughout his career. He led the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first five seasons, but lost all four playoff games in which he started (he was injured for their 2015 loss). Prior to Dalton’s arrival, the Bengals had only been to the postseason in two of the previous 20 seasons, also losing both games (the Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1990). Since that last playoff appearance in 2015, Dalton’s record in regular-season starts is 26-38 with 0 playoff appearances. That includes last season in Dallas, with whom Dalton signed after being released by Cincinnati (who drafted Joe Burrow in 2020). Dalton took over for the Cowboys after Dak Prescott went down with an injury and led the team to a 4-5 record in games that he started, again missing the playoffs.
It’s not a question of “if” but “when” for the talented Fields to take over as the starting quarterback. But for now, we will see the familiar face of “The Red Rifle” under center for Chicago.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
On the Rams or Against the Bears?
Whether it’s the public falling in love with LA having a new starting quarterback, or them rejecting Dalton as the Bears’ starter (it’s probably both), it’s clear where their money is going: LA has so far attracted 83% of the total bets, the highest number of any team in Week 1, according to Action. There has been some sharp action tracked on the Bears, however. These teams have met in each of the last two seasons under very similar circumstances: The Rams were at home and favored, and covered the number in both games (favored by 6.5 in 2020, won 24-10; favored by 5.5 in 2019, won 17-7).
Conflicting Analysis
The over is attracting more bets (53%) but the under is attracting a lot more money (67%). But there has been sharp action tracked on the over. In the two games noted above, both went under the number. This is another line to shop for, depending on which side you like: Some books have it as low as 44.5, and some are as high as 46.5.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Time to Open It Up
As mentioned above, McVay desperately wanted to get a quarterback who could open up the field, something that Goff consistently struggled to do. According to PFF, Stafford threw passes that traveled at least 20 yards down the field on 13% of all his throws (8th-most in the NFL), while Goff sat at 8% (30th in the NFL). Not only did Stafford take more shots, but he was also far more successful: His passer rating on those long balls was 123.8, fourth-best in the NFL. Goff didn’t throw it deep often, and when he did … it didn’t go very well. He was 27th in the NFL with a deep passer rating of 71.5.
Perhaps the biggest improvement in trading for Stafford, though, is his ability to throw when facing pressure. According to PFF, Stafford had a 91.8 passer rating when facing pressure, compared to Goff’s 45.9, which was among the league’s worst. Goff threw 7 INTs when under pressure last season, second-most in the NFL, as only Denver’s Drew Lock was worse.
There’s no guarantee that Stafford will ultimately be more successful than Goff in LA; after all, Goff sported a 42-20 regular-season record over the past four seasons, including three postseason appearances and a Super Bowl berth. Regardless, it should be fun watching Stafford quarterback a McVay-led offense.
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