Diametrically Opposed Turnover & Redzone Squads
Preview of Sunday Night Football and why Jonathan Taylor is so important to the Colts
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-4) AT SAN FRANCISCO (2-3), 8:20ET
Line: 49ers -3.5, Total: 42.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Mid-Level QBs Duel on Sunday Night
San Francisco has had a bit of a quarterback carousel to start the season, with Jimmy Garoppolo starting its first four games before leaving the Week 4 loss against Seattle at halftime. First-round pick Trey Lance took over for the second half of that game, then started the team’s following game, a loss to the Cardinals. Now Lance (knee) is hurt and will not play in this game, but Jimmy G returns from his injury (calf).
After starting the season with two wins in which Garoppolo did not throw an interception, Jimmy tossed picks in each of the next two games, both losses, and Lance did as well in Week 5 (another loss). So the 49ers are 2-0 when they do not throw an interception and 0-3 when they do. The Colts have intercepted five passes this season, but they’ve come in bunches, with multiple picks in two games and zero three times.
On the other side, Carson Wentz has done a great job of taking care of the football in his first season after leaving Philadelphia. Wentz threw 15 interceptions last season -- in just 12 games -- and 16 touchdown passes. This year, Wentz has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9-to-1. He’s attempted 193 passes and had just the one pick; in his Philly career, Wentz threw an INT once every 49.8 pass attempts. After taking 50 sacks last season in those 12 games (4.2 per game), Wentz has been dropped just 14 times in six games this season (2.3 per game). The 49ers average 2.2 defensive sacks per game and have intercepted just one pass all season (more on the all-important turnover battle in the “Analytics” section).
While the focus will be on the quarterbacks, Indianapolis will be trying to keep second-year back Jonathan Taylor rolling. After starting his rookie season a little slow -- 3.8 yards per carry, 428 rushing yards and one touchdown in his first nine games -- Taylor has been explosive over his last 13 games (including the Colts’ lone playoff game in 2020). Over that span, Taylor has rushed for 1,291 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and 12 touchdowns. Taylor did not score in any of the Colts’ first three games this season (all losses), but has scored in three straight since (Colts are 2-1, with their lone loss being the defensive meltdown on Monday Night Football against the Ravens in Week 5). Taylor has crested the 100-yard rushing mark twice this season, and the Colts won both games. They are 0-4 when Taylor rushes for under 100 yards; his highest rushing total in a loss this season is just 64 yards. San Francisco is allowing 113.2 yards per game on the ground (18th in the NFL) and over one rushing touchdown per game (1.2, tied for 6th-most per game). The recipe for offensive success for the Colts is well-documented: get Taylor the ball and make sure Wentz protects it when it’s his time to throw.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
So Much for Homefield Advantage
A strange trend has emerged in the NFL betting market this season: Road teams have covered the spread at an extremely high rate. Since fans are back in the stands this season, the assumption was that home-field advantage might carry extra weight this season. Not so. Road teams are 54-40 against-the-spread so far. Favorites have struggled as well, going 43-51 ATS. Both of these trends are bad news for the 49ers, but this is worse: SF is 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite.
The betting distribution has been fairly even thus far, with 52% of the tickets on the Colts and 57% of the money on the 49ers, according to Action Network. The disparity lies on the total, where 54% of the bets are on the over, but 77% of the money is one that side. Despite big money on the over, Action reporting sharp action tracked on the under.
One important note on the weather — which could impact the game’s total — from the San Francisco Chronicle: “One of the Bay Area’s biggest storms of the year has arrived. It began pounding down late Saturday night, with more drenching rain and powerful wind gusts expected for the rest of Sunday. Flash flood watches are in effect across the region, and meteorologists have warned of the potential for debris slides in fire burn-scarred regions.”
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Turnovers and Redzone Efficiency
One area that San Francisco needs to clean up is in the turnover department. San Francisco is minus-5 in turnovers through five games, one of four teams averaging minus-1.0 or worse (Jaguars, Chiefs and Jets). While the offense has given the ball away its fair share (seven giveaways in five games), the defense is not generating takeaways. The 49ers’ defense has intercepted one pass and recovered one fumble, tied with the Jags for fewest turnovers generated (though the Jaguars have played six games this season). The player who has the team’s lone interception is linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who had a pick-6 off Jared Goff in Week 1 and was injured on the play; he hasn’t played since (currently on injured reserve following groin surgery).
On the other side, the Colts are tied for third in the NFL (with the Cowboys) with a +7-turnover differential (Buffalo +11 and Arizona +8 are ahead). While the 49ers have only forced two turnovers this season, the Colts average two takeaways PER GAME. And while San Francisco gives the ball away more than once per game (1.4), the Colts are one of nine NFL teams who average fewer than one turnover per game (five giveaways in six games).
The Colts’ biggest offensive issue has been their inability to get into the end zone. Despite being ninth in the NFL in yards per play, the team ranks 19th in points per game (23.2) and 21st in touchdowns per game (2.5). The biggest reason is that they are second-worst at scoring touchdowns once they reach the red zone, cashing in on just 42.9% of those opportunities (Giants are the worst at 41.2%). Only four teams average TDs on under 50% of their red zone trips: the 49ers, Giants, Patriots and Jets.
The red zone is where San Francisco thrives on offense. The 49ers are second in the NFL in percentage of red zone drives that end in the end zone at 90.9%, one of two teams that score on at least 90% of trips to the red area (New Orleans). While the 49er offense cashes in at a high rate, their defense allows the opponent to do the same. SF opponents are scoring TDs on 76.5% of red zone drives, the fifth-worst mark in the league. Indianapolis’ red zone defense is middle-of-the-pack, allowing touchdowns on 65% of drives, tied for 18th in the NFL.
In this duel of teams falling behind in their division races -- 49ers are 3.5 games behind the Cardinals and the Colts are two games behind the Titans -- two of the biggest keys will be the turnover battle and turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns. The team that can win those battles will have an excellent opportunity to add a much-needed win in Week 7.