Dak Could Do Something That's Never Been Done
Breakdown of three of Sunday's biggest games, including GB/MIN, DAL/KC & PIT/LAC
GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-2) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-5), 1:00ET
Line: Packers -1, Total: 47.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Short Shelf-Life of NFL Head Coaches
Life as an NFL head coach can be difficult but is rather simple: win or you’re out. Maybe that should be amended to win quickly, or you’re out. Of the 32 current NFL head coaches, only seven of them have been with their current teams for at least five seasons: Bill Belichick (hired in 2000), Sean Payton (2006), Mike Tomlin (2007), John Harbaugh (2008), Pete Carroll (2010), Andy Reid (2013), and Mike Zimmer (2014). Only one of them doesn’t own a Super Bowl ring and that’s Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer, who is currently in his eighth season as the head man in Minneapolis.
His career record is solid, if unspectacular: 68-52-1 (56.6% winning percentage) in the regular season. He’s made three playoff appearances with two victories, reaching as far as the 2017 NFC Championship game. His teams have made the playoffs in alternating seasons: they missed in his first season in 2014, as well as 2016, 2018 and 2020. That’s good news for this year’s team since the pattern means they should reach the postseason in 2021.
However, this has been a trying season for Zimmer’s crew and calls for his job have begun to intensify. Minnesota is the only team in the NFL who has held a lead of at least seven points in every game this season and they’re 4-5. In their five losses, they’ve blown three seven-point leads (vs. the Bengals, Browns and Cowboys), a 13-point lead (Cardinals) and a 14-point lead (Ravens). Quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown 13 first-half touchdown passes and zero interceptions this season with a completion percentage of 70.7%. He’s taken four sacks in the first halves of games and has a QB rating of 120.1. In second halves, he’s been a completely different player. He’s thrown four TD passes and two interceptions with a completion percentage of 65.1%. He’s been sacked eight times and has a QB rating of 88.1. Last week’s victory over the Chargers was Minnesota’s first of the season against a team that currently has a winning record. In that game, the Vikings had a 10-point lead that they blew before coming back to re-take the lead and ultimately win the game.
Despite the blown leads, the Vikings find themselves one game out of a playoff spot. Last week’s win over the Chargers helped to quiet some of the critics, especially since they came back after blowing yet another lead. But nothing quiets critics in Minnesota like beating the hated rival Green Bay Packers, an opportunity that Zimmer has in front of him on Sunday.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Viking Victory Would Buck the Trends
The betting trends for this game are HEAVILY on the side of the Green Bay Packers. After beginning the season with an against-the-spread loss to the Saints, Green Bay has covered nine straight contests. That makes the Packers 13-3 ATS in their last 16 regular-season games overall. They’ve been strong on the road too, going 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games dating back to 2019.
Minnesota has bounced back from a wretched stretch late last season; the Vikings failed to cover their last seven games of 2020. They also failed to cover in Week 1, stretching the streak to eight games overall, before going 5-3 ATS over their past 8 games. However, they are 5-11 ATS over their past 16 games overall. They’ve really struggled at home, covering only one of their past eight home games and have lost three in a row this season. However, Zimmer is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog. All four Minnesota home games this season have gone under the total, and the Packers are on a seven-game under streak, regardless of venue.
The public is backing the Packers hard, with 71% of the tickets on the road favorite, according to Action Network. However, only 55% of the money is on Green Bay and Action is reporting sharp action on Minnesota. As far as the total, the bets are on the under (55%), but the money (75%) is on the over.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Rodgers’ Extensive History vs. Minnesota
Aaron Rodgers has faced the Vikings 25 times in the regular season in his career, including 24 starts. However, in the first meeting in 2017, he broke his collarbone in the first quarter and threw only four passes in the contest. For the sake of this exercise, we will remove that game and the 2007 relief effort where he threw two passes in a blowout when Brett Favre was still the starter.
That leaves 23 regular-season starts for Rodgers against the Vikings in which the quarterback has compiled a 14-8-1 record (60.1% winning percentage). That seems like a strong record, until you consider that Rodgers’ career winning percentage vs. all other teams is 68.2%. Since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, Rodgers is 7-4-1 (58.3%) against the Vikings.
In Rodgers’ 11 starts against Minnesota from 2008-2014, he averaged 282.5 yards per game on a 71.5% completion percentage while throwing 26 touchdown passes and four interceptions. His passer rating in those contests was 117.9. In his 12 starts since Zimmer became Vikings head coach, Rodgers has completed 64.9% of his passes for 248.9 yards/game with 24 touchdowns and three interceptions. His passer rating in those games was 100.7. Those numbers are buoyed by his two performances during his MVP-winning campaign last season; despite going 1-1 in two meetings in 2020, Rodgers threw for 655 yards with seven TD passes and zero interceptions and he was sacked only once. Overall, Rodgers has thrown 50 touchdowns to seven interceptions in his career vs. Minnesota, a 7.1 TD-to-INT ratio that is the best by any quarterback versus a single opponent in history, according to Elias.
Can Zimmer’s defense recapture what they had against Rodgers in 2018 & 2019? In those four games, Rodgers threw for 904 yards (226.0/game) with four touchdown throws and one interception; he was sacked 13 times in those four meetings. Prior to last season, Zimmer’s defense had sacked Rodgers 27 times in the previous seven games, nearly four times per game. Rodgers has been sacked 18 times in nine games this season after being dropped 20 times in 16 starts in 2020. Rodgers is just 6-18 (.250) as a starter when he’s sacked 5+ times in a game compared to 128-48-1 (.726) when he takes four sacks or less. Getting pressure on the MVP will be a major key to Minnesota winning this NFC North showdown.
DALLAS COWBOYS (7-2) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-4), 4:25ET
Line: Chiefs -2.5, Total: 56.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Beast of the NFC East
Finally, a strong team in the NFC East! In 2016, Dallas won the NFC East with a 13-3 record, then lost its first playoff game to the Packers. In 2017, the Eagles had an identical 13-3 record, and they went on to the win the Super Bowl. The following year, Dallas was back on top with a 10-6 record, beating Seattle in the Wild Card round before losing to the Super Bowl runner-up Rams in the divisional round. But over the past two seasons, the NFC East has been won by a 9-7 Eagles team (2019) and a 7-9 Washington team (2020) that both lost their initial playoff games.
This Dallas team has already matched last year’s East champion with seven wins and barring a collapse in the second half are likely to become the first 10-win NFC East team since they did it in 2018. No other NFL division has failed to have a double-digit-win team in either of the last two seasons, let alone both. The AFC East and North and NFC West have each had four double-digit-win teams over the past two seasons.
After Dallas, the Eagles are second in the division this year with a 4-6 record and aren’t likely to reach the double-digit-win plateau despite a 17-game regular season. But the NFC East probably doesn’t want to get greedy -- they’ll be happy to just get that one 10+ win season after a two-year drought.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Battle Between ATS Opposites
Despite covering last week against the Raiders, the Chiefs are just 3-14-1 against-the-spread in their last 18 games dating back to last season, including 3-7 ATS this season. As a home favorite, the Chiefs have failed to cover in their last eight such chances and have lost nine of their past 10 when giving points at Arrowhead, which includes five opportunities this season.
Meanwhile, Dallas was terrible against the number early in 2020 as it failed to cover any of its first eight contests. But they went 5-3 ATS in the second half of the season and are 8-1 ATS so far this year, which is 13-4 over their past 17 games overall. Additionally, they Cowboys have covered four straight on the road and six of the past eight following a six-game ATS losing skid. Dating back to 2018, Dallas is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog in its past 13 such games. Despite these teams both being thought of as high-powered offenses, four of the past six Cowboys away games have gone under and five of the last seven Chiefs’ home games where KC was favored have also cashed on the under.
According to Action Network, 52% of the bets are on the Cowboys and 62% of the money has followed. However, they are reporting sharp action on the Chiefs. The over is seeing more tickets (68%) but the money (including sharp action) is on the under (87%).
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Forget Comeback Player of the Year…
After suffering a gruesome season-ending leg injury in 2020, Dak Prescott has the inside track to winning this season’s NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award. Heck, Prescott might even be the league’s MVP at this point in the season. He leads the NFL in passer rating at 110.8, just ahead of Kyler Murray (110.4). He, Murray, and Mac Jones are the only passers in the league completing at least 70% of their passes.
He's accomplishing those numbers by pushing the ball down the field. His 8.3 Average Intended Air Yards (IAY) is tied for ninth among qualified QBs (200+ attempts), according to Next Gen Stats, while his Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) of 6.1 yards ranks tied for seventh. His minus-0.1 Air Yards to the Sticks is tied for fourth among qualified QBs (for a refresher on this stat, check out our previous post on Lamar Jackson that breaks it down). Finally, Prescott’s xCOMP% of 65.8% is lower than his actual COMP% of 70.3%, giving him an xCOMP% +/- of +5.3, which ranks second in the NFL, trailing only Kyler Murray (+6.9).
No player has ever won both Comeback Player of the Year and MVP in the same season. Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson both came the closest, in the same season, as Manning won Comeback Player of the Year in 2012 and finished second to Peterson in MVP voting, while Peterson won the MVP and finished second to Manning in Comeback Player. Could Dak be the first to ever do it? There’s a lot of season left, but his case for both is as strong as anyone right now.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3-1) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-4), 8:20ET
Line: Chargers -5, Total: 47.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Herbert Needs Help
There’s been some chatter about the second-year signal caller for the Chargers, perhaps that he’s hit a bit of a sophomore wall. In his first 20 career starts, Herbert threw 44 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. He completed 67% of his passes for 5,912 yards (296 yards/game) and had a passer rating of 99.9. Over his past four games, though, he’s thrown six touchdowns to four interceptions, and completed 63% of his passes for 969 yards (242 yards/game) for a passer rating of 84.5. After completing less than 60% of his throws only three times in his first 20 starts, he has failed to complete 60% in three of his past four starts, losing all three games. Herbert has thrown for less than 200 yards twice in the past four, something he did only one time in the first 20 (had 187 pass yards in 2020 loss at Miami).
The big problem for Herbert is that he’s not getting a lot of help from his supporting cast; the Chargers have the 5th-highest drops-per-reception rate and the 3rd-lowest broken-tackles-per-reception rate. LA’s offense relies on the short, quick passing game: Herbert’s 7.2 Average Intended Air Yards are the 5th-lowest among qualified QBs (200+ attempts). But his receivers are dropping passes, failing to break tackles, and not gaining yards after the catch.
His offensive line has been struggling as well. According to ESPN Analytics, the Chargers pass block win rate (how often linemen sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer) is 55%, which is tied for 20th in the league. They’re worse in the run game, with a run block win rate (RBWR definition) of 68% that’s tied for sixth-worst in the NFL. Without being able to establish the run, it has lessened the effectiveness of the play-action pass, which is one of Herbert’s biggest strengths. The good news for LA is that they get to face the Steelers this week, which could allow them to establish their run and use their play-action effectively. We’ll dive deeper into that idea in the “Analytical” section of this report.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
The Bolts are Streaky
The Chargers have been a hot-and-cold team when it comes to the spread since the start of 2020, and it appears they’re in a current cold spell. After starting 2020 with a 4-1-1 ATS record, LA failed to cover any of its next six. Then, starting in Week 14 of last season and continuing through Week 5 of this year, the Bolts covered eight of nine games. But over the past four weeks, they’ve gone 1-3 ATS. As a home favorite, they’ve gone 5-12-1 ATS over their past 18 and the Total has gone Under in six of the past eight such games.
Last season, Pittsburgh went on an ATS run where they covered seven of eight games from Week 3 to Week 11. But since then, and including the playoff loss to the Browns, the Steelers have gone 5-11 ATS. They’ve lost two straight, three of the past four and six of the past eight. However, as a road underdog since the start of 2020, they are 5-2 ATS. Going back to the start of the 2018 season, Pittsburgh has gone 11-4 vs. the number when installed as a road underdog. The under has cashed in 10 of the contests (three overs and one push), including in each of the past three such games, all this season.
The public is heavily backing the Chargers at 67% of the tickets, though the money isn’t quite as lopsided (58% for LA), according to Action Network who is also reporting sharp action on Pittsburgh. As far as the Total, the bets are split 50/50, but the money favors the over at 61%, including sharp action.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
New-Found Weakness?
The Steelers have been known as a tough, physical football team seemingly forever. But after tying the winless Lions last week, there were some cracks in that armor -- especially when looking at how Detroit was able to succeed in the running game. Entering Week 10, the Lions ranked 26th in the NFL, averaging 93.1 yards per game on the ground. The most yards that had gained rushing in one game was 137 against the Rams. In half of their first eight games, they didn’t even reach 100 yards on the ground.
That all changed in the Week 10 matchup against Pittsburgh when Detroit gashed the Steelers for 229 rushing yards on 39 carries (5.9 YPC). It was the first time the Lions rushed for 200 yards in over three years (October 21, 2018 vs. Miami). In the past three seasons, only one team had rushed for 200+ yards against the Steelers and that was the Ravens who did it once in 2020 and once in 2019. D’Andre Swift ran for 130 yards last week, which was the most by a player facing the Steelers since Week 17 of the 2019 season (Gus Edwards’s 130). Godwin Igwebuike’s 42-yard TD is the longest rushing touchdown the Steelers have allowed this season.
Detroit went from 26th in rushing yards per game to 20th, adding 15 yards to its weekly average (108.2). Meanwhile, the Steelers went from 15th in opposing rushing yards allowed prior to Week 10 (109.8 yards per game) to 24th (123.0). They’re now allowing 4.6 yards per carry, which is tied for fifth-worst in the NFL.
So, how did Detroit do it? By bringing in extra offensive linemen. Detroit rushed 24 times with 6+ offensive linemen on the field, using them as tight ends or fullbacks, and they ran for 174 yards (7.3 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. When they ran the ball with five offensive linemen on the field, they had just 55 yards on 15 attempts (3.7 yards per carry).
Can the Chargers take advantage? They’re coming off a performance vs. Minnesota where they rushed for 82 yards on 19 attempts. Over the past two weeks, they haven’t topped 90+ rushing yards. In fact, the Chargers’ rushing attack has been boom-or-bust, and mostly bust. In six of their nine games, they’ve run for fewer than 100 yards. In two of their nine games, they’ve run for over 160 yards. Once, they fell in the middle (112 against the Browns in Week 5). For LA, rushing attempts have correlated to wins more than yards; in games where they’ve run the ball at least 22 times, they’re 5-0. In games where they have 20 carries or fewer, they’re 0-4. The Chargers are 28th in the league, averaging 22.8 rushing attempts per game. They might do well to take a look at their success when they pound the rock and look for more ways to use the ground game to their advantage, especially against a Pittsburgh defense that was mauled by the Lions.