Christmas and Football, That's What America Does!
In-depth preview of the two games on Christmas Day
First, we want to wish all of our loyal readers a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! We are so happy to have your support during the inaugural season of STAT Stack. We hope you have enjoyed reading the material as much as we have enjoyed providing it. As always, please feel free to drop us a line with any thoughts or suggestions: feedback@stat-factor.com
Before we get to the games, a few notes on this weekend’s Stack. In an effort to provide our staff with some time to spend with their families for the holidays, these have all been written earlier in the week. Because of that, we will not include items like spread information or betting percentages – those are dynamic and always-changing and rather than provide dated information we will not include them this weekend. Additionally, we will also be featuring fewer games and shorter posts. We will return with our regular reports next week, and these will continue throughout the playoffs and including the Super Bowl.
Thanks again for all of your support, enjoy the games!
CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-7) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-3), 4:30ET
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
You Throw It, I Catch It
Aaron Rodgers is having another MVP-type season for the Green Bay Packers, but it certainly helps that he has one of the best wide receivers in the NFL lining up on the outside on virtually every play, Davante Adams. Adams and Rodgers have been connecting for the better part of the last eight seasons and even as Adams approaches the 30-year-old mark (by the way, Happy Birthday to Davante who turned 29 on Friday!) he shows no signs of slowing down.
It’s no secret that Adams is Rodgers’ favorite option in the passing game, as he has garnered 135 targets in 13 games played this season and ranks fourth in the league in total targets. He’s a threat all over the field, as well, attracting 35% of the Packers targeted air yards this season, despite having an average target depth of 9.6 yards -- he’s the only NFL receiver who has attracted 35% of his team’s air yards while getting less than 10 yards per target, according to Next Gen Stats.
Another major reason to target Adams is that he catches just about everything. There are only four wideouts who have at least 100 targets and two or fewer drops: Adams, Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs, Las Vegas’ Hunter Renfrow and Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans. Among those players, though, Adams’ 135 targets lead the way – Diggs is the closest with 128 and both Renfrow and Evans have less than 115. Adams drop rate of 1.5% is the lowest among all players with 100+ targets and he ranks third in first-down receptions (66), second in receiving yards per game (96.0; Cooper Kupp has 116.1), tied for fifth in receptions of 20+ yards (17), and tied for eighth in touchdown catches (8). Don’t expect to see Rodgers tossing fewer balls to his #1 guy any time soon.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Backing Rodgers = $$$
The Packers have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL this season, in terms of backing them weekly. After a terrible start with the 38-3 drubbing by New Orleans, Green Bay rattled off nine straight wins against-the-spread and currently have an identical ATS record – 11-3 – to their actual record this season. And, it’s not just 2021 that has been good for Rodgers-backers For his career, Rodgers has a 128-89-6 ATS record (59%), including playoffs. That means that if you had wagered $100 on the Packers for every start in his career (at the standard Vegas odds of -110), you’d have made over $2,700. Another positive trend for Green Bay is its 8-1 ATS mark since 2019 after allowing 30+ points in its previous game.
The Browns, meanwhile, have not fared so well recently after a strong start. They covered three of their first four games in 2021 but have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Despite losing to Las Vegas on a last-second field goal on Tuesday, the Browns covered the 3-point spread, which snapped a four-game ATS losing skid. Overall, Cleveland is 6-8 ATS this season and 12-18 ATS over its past 30 regular-season games. In terms of Totals, the Packers are on a four-game Over streak following seven-straight games that finished Under the Total. The Browns have scored just 68 points over the past five games, three which have gone Under. However, Matt LaFleur is 11-3 Over-Under after an ATS-loss during his tenure as the Packers head coach.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-6) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-4), 8:15ET
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Taylor Continues Torching Opponents
We wrote extensively last week about Jonathan Taylor and after his performance against the Patriots, there has been even more discussion in the media about the MVP candidacy of non-quarterbacks. It seems we might get to a place where the NFL just separates the MVP into two categories: quarterback and non-quarterback. Either way, it’s worth re-visiting what Taylor has done this season and why he seems primed for another big game against Arizona. Taylor rushed for over 100 yards against New England, moving the Colts to 8-0 when he reaches that plateau, and they remain winless (0-6) when he doesn’t. So, it would behoove the Cardinals to make a concerted effort to stop the star tailback.
The rush yards over expectation stat has been getting more mainstream discussion this week, as Taylor is dominating in that category with +418 RYOE this season. One of the critiques of the stat is that it heavily favors long runs, which is partially true. After all, Taylor leads the NFL with 42 rushes of 10+ yards this season. However, Taylor is also the NFL’s leader when it comes to percentage of rushing attempts that result in a positive RYOE value, as over 40% of his rushes result in gaining more yardage than would be expected for the average running back. And although Taylor has incredible speed (more on that in a moment), he actually excels most at running between the tackles. According to Next Gen Stats, Taylor has more yards after contact on between-the-tackle runs (619) and 20+ yard runs between-the-tackles (22) in 14 games this season than any player has had in any full season since Next Gen began tracking those numbers in 2016.
Enter, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards allow 4.6 yards/carry on runs up-the-middle (rank 28th) and 14.1% of opponent carries inside go for at least 10 yards, which is the highest percentage in the NFL. They give up nearly 40% more yards than expected in runs up the middle and are 29th in the NFL in that category. Wisconsin is known for putting tough, downhill runners in the NFL -- think Ron Dayne, Melvin Gordon and Montee Ball -- so it’s no surprise that Taylor dominates in this area as well. But it’s his breakaway speed that really separates him once he gets loose, as Taylor is responsible for the fastest speed registered by any ball carrier this season (22.13 mph on his touchdown run against the Patriots on Saturday night) and three of the five fastest speeds clocked by Next Gen Stats. He breaks tackles (NFL-best 757 yards after contact according to Pro Football Reference), possesses an extra gear that no other player can reach, and his success is directly correlated with his team’s wins and losses – sounds like an MVP candidate to us.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Trends Favors the Colts
As of this writing the Cardinals are installed as slight favorites, at -1. That’s good news for the Colts who have covered four straight games as road underdogs, while Arizona has lost three straight as home favorites (both straight-up and ATS) and is 9-21 ATS (30%) in the last 30 games as a favorite in Phoenix. The Cards started the season as one of the league’s hottest ATS teams, covering nine of their first 12 games, but they’ve since lost two straight to move them to a still-respectable 9-5 ATS on the season. The Colts have the same 9-5 ATS mark this season, but they’ve covered two straight games and eight of their past 11 following a 1-2 ATS start to the season. Indy is also 12-2 ATS since the start of 2020 when facing a good passing team (7+ yards per attempt), while Arizona is 0-7 ATS in the same timeframe when facing a good offense (350+ yards per game) in the second half of the season. Some trends to consider for Totals are Indy’s 9-0 Over mark against excellent offenses (375+ yards per game) since 2020. However, in the last 10 seasons, the Under is 77-29 (73%) when an NFL home team is coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite like the Cards are.