Changing of the Guard in the AFC North?
The rarity of Cleveland favored over Pittsburgh; plus why Tampa might be primed for a blowout of New Orleans
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-3) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-3), 1ET
Line: Browns -4, Total: 43
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Turning Tide?
Since the beginning of the new millennium and up until the end of the 2018 season, Pittsburgh completely dominated Cleveland. The teams met 39 times in that span (including playoffs), and the Steelers went 33-5-1. Interestingly, the Browns won the first game between the teams in the millennium (23-20 on September 17, 2000) and the final game in that decade (13-6 on December 10, 2009) those would be two of the three wins that the Browns had from 2000-2009 over the Steelers. In those 39 meetings, the Browns were the betting favorite just three times, losing two of the three outright.
But since the start of the 2019 season, the teams have met five times -- including last year’s playoff game -- and the Browns have been favored in three of them. Cleveland has won twice in those games (both home games) and is 3-2 overall against Pittsburgh since 2019. Pittsburgh hasn’t won in Cleveland since 2017 (0-2-1). The Browns are favored in this matchup, so once this game kicks off Cleveland will have been favored over Pittsburgh more times in the past 2+ seasons than it was in the 20 seasons from its return to the NFL in 1999 until the end of 2018.
It should be noted, though, that Ben Roethlisberger has missed each of the last two Steelers’ regular season losses vs. the Browns, though he was the starter in the playoff loss last season. For his career, Big Ben is 24-3-1 vs. the Browns (including playoffs) and he hasn’t lost a regular season game against them since 2014 (7-0 since then). However, this isn’t the same Ben Roethlisberger anymore. In seasons where he started at least 10 games, he hasn’t posted a QBR of lower than 55.0 since 2008. This year he sits at 42.1, which would be a career-low. His yards per attempt since the start of 2019 is 6.3; his career mark prior to that was 7.8, a full yard-and-a-half less.
This is a big year for the Browns to continue to prove that they’ve come out of the NFL’s basement, and it starts with beating their most-hated rival -- a team that dominated them for 20 years.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Bye Week Blues
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have won the week following their bye for four consecutive seasons and is 10-4 as Steelers’ head coach following the off week. However, that has not translated to covering the spread. The Steelers are 3-7 ATS over the past decade following their bye week. The Browns are coming off of a mini-bye, having played last Thursday night. The Browns have covered two straight coming off a Thursday game and Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 against a team that just played a Thursday game.
Despite reporting sharp action on the Steelers, Action Network has the Browns receiving 53% of the bets and 83% of the money in this matchup. And while the Over is seeing 54% of the tickets, the Under has dominated the money, garnering 80% of the total handle.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Let’s Talk Defense and Discipline
While the Browns offense generally gains the headlines, especially quarterback Baker Mayfield, their defense has quietly been one of the best in football. The Browns’ defense allows 5.0 yards per play, 2nd-best in the NFL (Bills, 4.7). They are strong on ground, holding opposing teams to 3.5 yards per rush attempt, also 2nd-best (Saints, 3.3). And, they are strong on opposing air attacks, getting a sack on more than 8% of defensive plays, which is 3rd-best (Vikings, Bears) and generating pressure on 30% of opposing dropbacks, which trails only Minnesota. They’ve also held opponents to about a 61.1% completion rate (4th-best).
One of the biggest problems for the Browns this season has been penalties; they have the second-worst penalty yardage differential in the NFL with -179 yards (Tampa Bay is last with -186). They average 10.0 yards per penalty, which is tied for second-highest (only San Francisco’s 12.8 is worse). They’ve committed seven defensive pass interference penalties, tied for third-most with Washington (San Francisco and Tampa are worse). Opponents have gained 16 first downs via penalty, tied for fifth-most. Their 11 offensive holds are tied for fourth-most and they lead the league in illegal formation penalties while being tied for the league lead in illegal motion infractions.
On the other side, Pittsburgh averages the third-fewest yards per penalty (7.3), sixth-fewest penalty yards per game (46.5) and rank eighth in penalty yardage differential (+68). And Steelers’ opponents have gained just five first downs via penalty, which is tied for the fewest in the league with Indianapolis.
In a divisional battle with a spread under a touchdown and a total under 45, expect the game to be close. It could come down to which team shows more discipline and avoids big penalties; an area where Pittsburgh holds a distinct advantage so far this season.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-1) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (4-2), 4:25ET
Line: Bucs -4.5, Total: 48.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Jameis Revenge Game?
For the first time in his career, Jameis Winston will start against the team that drafted him #1 overall in the 2015 NFL Draft and where he spent the first five seasons of his professional career. In his 5-year run as the Bucs starter, Winston averaged 35 pass attempts per game. In his first four games as the Saints’ starter, he has thrown 21.5 passes per game, never exceeding 23 attempts. But over his past two starts, he’s thrown 32.5 passes per game, including a season-high 35 on a rainy, windy Monday night win in Seattle. The Saints are 2-0 in games where Jameis exceeds 30 pass attempts. He’s thrown 13 touchdown passes and committed just four turnovers this season, which is 3.25 TD tosses for every one giveaway. In his Bucs’ career, he had 1.09 passing scores for every time he turned it over (121 passing TDs, 111 turnovers).
On the other side is the GOAT, Tom Brady. As a Patriot, Brady was 4-1 against the Saints in the regular season, but in his first season in Tampa, Brady’s Bucs went 0-2. However, Brady beat them during the playoffs on his way to an NFL-record seventh Super Bowl victory. He added to his impressive resume last week, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw 600 touchdown passes. In that win over Chicago, he had four touchdowns, his 37th game with 4+ TD passes and 97th game with 3+ TD passes. Both of those marks tied the all-time record holder, Drew Brees, who Brady can pass on Sunday in Brees’ former home stadium.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Tampa Tom Loves a Challenge
In the past three seasons, Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS vs. good teams (outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG). In the same time frame, the Saints are 14-5 ATS vs. poor passing defenses (235+ pass YPG). Also, since 2019, the over is 22-10 when the Bucs play NFC opponents. Before the Bucs’ upset in the Big Easy in the playoffs in January, New Orleans was 5-0 (SU and ATS) in the previous five in this series, winning those games by an average of 16.8 PPG.
Currently, 72% of the bets and 68% of the money is on the defending champions, though Action is reporting some sharp action on the Saints. As far as the total, 50% of the tickets are on either side, but 59% of the money is on the under.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Big Difference in Big Plays
It’s no secret that one of the most important aspects of a football team is its ability to both create big plays and to limit the opponent’s ability to create them. The 33rd Team created a chart that they call “The Big Play Index” which tracks every team’s ability to create and limit the big play (defined as a run of 10+ yards or a pass of 16+ yards). So, how do these teams stack up? They’re nearly polar opposites.
The Tampa Buccaneers are one of the best teams in the NFL at big-play differential (big plays created vs. big plays allowed), creating nearly 20 more big plays than they have given up. The Saints, on the other hand, are the only NFL team who has a BPI differential of minus-5 or worse and an overall record that’s better than .500. In fact, the Saints have the fourth-worst differential in the NFL at minus-13. The three teams that are worse, the Texans (-37), Jets (-31) and Dolphins (-22), have three wins combined. The teams that are closest to the Saints -- the Bears (-12), Washington (-7), Steelers (-5), Lions (-5) -- have a combined winning percentage of .296. Even if you remove the winless Lions, the number is .400, which is well-below the 4-2 Saints mark of .667. For teams that are at +10 or better (13 teams), the overall winning percentage is .632. Only four of the 13 teams (49ers, Eagles, Patriots and Vikings) have fewer than four wins.
So, what does it mean? Generally, the higher your differential, the better your record. Because of that, teams like the Saints are due for some negative regression in the wins department, and the teams who have fewer than four wins but 10+ big-play differential are due for positive regression. It also means that the Saints need to be very aware of in this game because Tampa has generated 70 big plays this season, third-most in the NFL (Ravens 76, Browns 72) while the Saints have produced 35, the second-fewest in the NFL (Texans 34).