Championship Preview: Why the 49ers Have Owned the Rams
In-depth preview of the NFC Championship between the 49ers and Rams
#6 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (12-7) AT #4 LOS ANGELES RAMS (14-5) 6:30ET
Line: Rams -3.5, Total: 45.5
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Third Time’s a Charm?
The NFC Championship Game is the third meeting of the season between the Rams and the 49ers with San Francisco winning both previous matchups (in Week 10 and Week 18). Let’s quickly debunk a common myth that still gets repeated far too frequently: it is not “hard to beat a team three times in one season.” Of the 22 occurrences where teams met in the playoffs where one team had won the first two meetings of the season, 14 times the 3-0 sweep was completed (64%). Since 1994, there have been 14 such occurrences and the team has completed the sweep in 10 of them (71%). So, it is far more likely that a team will, in fact, beat a team three times in one season that it is that they will lose that third game after winning the first two. In addition, San Francisco has beaten Los Angeles in six straight contests, Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 in 10 games against his former boss Sean McVay and the 49ers are 9-3 against the Rams since they moved to Los Angeles.
Because these teams have played twice, we thought it would be most helpful to dive into those two matchups and look at the numbers to find what went right for San Francisco and what the Rams have to change to finally beat their NFC West rivals. It’s also helpful that both matchups were played in the second half of the regular season, so these teams aren’t dramatically different. The win over the Rams in Week 10 possibly saved the 49ers season – they went into that game with a 3-5 record and have since won nine of their last 11 contests. That was also the game that the 49ers tried something different – they started lining Deebo Samuel up as a running back with much more frequency. He crushed the Rams as both a runner and a receiver in that Week 10 matchup, rushing the ball five times for 36 yards (7.2 yards per carry) and a score while catching five passes for 97 yards and another touchdown. Most of his receiving damage came after the catch, with his average of +9.4 yards after catch above expected easily the highest of any NFL player in Week 10. Despite that, the Rams weren’t able to adjust much in the second matchup as Deebo again racked up yards on the ground (eight carries for 45 yards and a score) and through the air (4 catches for 95 yards). Once again, he led all NFL receivers in YACOE per reception in Week 18 with a mark of +9.4.
The 49ers seemingly found a formula that worked against the Rams: get the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands as soon as possible. Garoppolo and the 49ers are generally a quick-pass offense, as Garoppolo’s average time to throw in the regular season was 2.67 seconds, fifth-fastest among QBs. It was on another level against the Rams in the first meeting in Week 10, as Garoppolo’s average time to pass was 2.3 seconds, the fastest of any QB that week according to Next Gen Stats. In the Week 18 game, he held the ball slightly longer at 2.41 seconds, but was still the second-fastest of any QB that week and over two-and-a-half seconds faster than his season average. Shanahan, Garoppolo and offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel know the same thing that we all know: the Rams defensive line is STOUT. According to ESPN Analytics, they led the NFL in pass-rush win rate at 53%, led by three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald whose 26% PRWR was five points better than the next closest interior defender. To counter that, San Francisco simply gave LA no time to get to its quarterback, as it continually got the ball into the hands of its best playmakers as efficiently as possible.
On the other side, Matthew Stafford struggled to some extent in both games. He threw two interceptions in each game and two of his five lowest passer rating games this season came against San Francisco. What do the 49ers do that causes problems for Stafford? They get pressure without blitzing. Few teams can generate the pressure without blitzing that San Francisco does, as its 29.4% pressure rate when bringing four rushers was third highest in the league, according to NGS. And according to Pro Football Reference, the 49ers were one of five teams who blitz on fewer than 20% of opponent dropbacks. The Rams’ line might get more attention, but the 49ers have a powerful front in their own right, ranking fifth with a PRWR of 46%.
We wrote last week about how proficient Stafford is against the blitz and that was borne out on Sunday as the Bucs were consistently burned by Stafford and the Rams offense when they brought extra rushers, including on the throw to Cooper Kupp that set up the game-winning field goal. Tampa Bay blitzed Stafford 14 times in the game, and he proceeded to complete 73.7% of his passes while throwing for 366 yards and two scores, without tossing an interception. In two games this season, the 49ers blitzed Stafford only 10 times combined. Yet, in the Week 18 matchup, San Francisco got pressure on 37.8% of Stafford’s dropbacks, the highest rate that the LA quarterback saw this season. Last week against the Packers, the 49ers defense blitzed Aaron Rodgers only three times on his 29 dropbacks, but they still managed to sack him five times and create pressure on 26.5% of his dropbacks.
In the NFL Playoffs, games often come down to matchups and the 49ers are a nightmare matchup for the Rams because of their physicality up front and their quick-passing offense that neutralizes the Rams’ biggest strength. In order to finally snap the losing streak, LA will need to do a much better job up front on offense giving Stafford time. Since the 49ers are able to keep more defenders in coverage, Rams receivers need extra time to find open space. On defense, they have to force Garoppolo into obvious passing situations where their defensive line can attack and play to its strength. Both of those are certainly possible, but we haven’t seen it work for them in over three years. Then again, a trip to the Super Bowl hasn’t been on the line between these two teams since the 1989 season. But the 49ers won that one, too.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
One-Sided Rivalry
We’ve mentioned quite a few times about the 49ers’ success against the Rams and that has parlayed (pardon the pun) into success for gamblers backing them, as well. In the last 13 matchups between these two teams, San Francisco has gone 10-3 ATS (77%), including four straight covers. In the 10 games since Shanahan and McVay took over in 2017, the 49ers have covered seven out of 10 times.
It’s not just against the Rams that the 49ers are hot, either. While San Francisco was barely above .500 overall (9-8 ATS in the regular season), it was 7-2 ATS (78%) in the final nine regular-season games, which was tied with Detroit for the best cover percentage over that stretch. Having won and covered both playoff games (as underdogs), the Niners are now 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games (82%). Additionally, the 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo have been very strong as underdogs, with the quarterback going 15-4 ATS (79%) in his career as an underdog, including playoffs. Over the past three seasons, San Francisco is 14-5 ATS (74%) as an underdog. Add in that the 49ers are on the road, and you have a team that’s gone 11-4 ATS (73%) as a road dog in its last 15 games, including playoffs. In his career as 49ers head coach, Kyle Shanahan is 28-18 ATS (61%) as an underdog and 7-0 ATS in January games, winning those contests by an average of 8.4 points per game. Shanahan has coached the 49ers in five playoff games since taking over, and the team is 4-1 ATS in those contests; the Under is 4-1, as well.
If you’re looking for trends that favor the Rams, here’s one: San Francisco is playing on the road for the fourth consecutive week and teams playing at least four straight games on the road are 1-6-1 ATS, including 0-5-1 ATS in the playoffs. Also, since a five-game ATS losing skid in the middle of this season, the Rams have gone 6-2 ATS since, including covering both of their playoff wins. And, despite the trends and recent history, as of Saturday night bettors are backing the Rams, according to Action Network. So far, 56% of the tickets and 59% of the money is on the home favorites.
As far as totals, Overs are 8-2 in Conference Championship Games in the previous five seasons, including 4-0 in the previous two seasons. However, in the past 15 games where the Rams were favored at home, the Under is 11-4 (73%). And in the past 21 games where San Francisco was a road underdog, the Under is 15-6 (71%). In the last 10 seasons, the Under is 26-6 (81%) in playoff games involving a sixth-seeded team. The money is following the latter trends as 65% of the money bet as of Saturday night has been on the Under, despite the fact that 60% of the tickets are on the Over.