Championship Preview: Can Burrow & Chase Overcome Shaky O-Line?
In-depth preview of the AFC Championship Game between the Bengals and Chiefs
#4 CINCINNATI BENGALS (12-7) AT #2 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (14-5), 3:00ET
Line: Chiefs -7, Total: 54.5
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Can Bengals Get Burrow’s Back?
The Cincinnati Bengals are on somewhat of a Cinderella-run this season; they’ve gone from not winning a single playoff game in over 30 years to winning back-to-back playoff games -- including one on the road against the AFC’s #1 seed, the first road playoff win in franchise history -- and find themselves in the AFC Championship for the first time since the 1988 season. Of course, the history is quite different for their opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, who are the first team ever to host four straight AFC title games. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has won more playoff games in his five-year NFL career (8) than the Cincinnati Bengals franchise has won in its 54-year history (7).
Experience will play a factor in this game, but perhaps nothing will be of greater focus than Cincinnati’s offensive line. Despite winning two playoff games, the biggest cracks in the Bengals’ armor shone through brightly against Tennessee where Joe Burrow became the first quarterback in NFL history to be sacked nine times in a playoff game and win that game. The sacks were a result of an issue that Bengals fans have been aware of all season – their offensive line isn’t very good. According to ESPN Analytics, Cincinnati’s team pass-block win rate of 49% was tied with the Steelers for the second-worst in the league (Dolphins were worse at 47%). For reference, the three other teams still alive in the NFL postseason – The Rams, Chiefs, and 49ers – ranked first, second and tied-12th, respectively, in that category. The other playoff teams that ranked 20th or worse in PBWR – Raiders (21st), Cowboys (23rd), Titans (24th) and Steelers – all failed to win a single playoff game this season.
The Titans defensive line was not a particularly dominant one in the regular season, either, ranking 21st in pass-rush win rate, yet they had little trouble getting to Burrow play after play after play. This week, the Bengals go on the road to face the league’s seventh-best defensive front in the Chiefs (44% PRWR). The Titans generated pressure on Burrow on 27.7% of his dropbacks (according to Pro Football Reference), which is just the eighth-highest mark in his 18 starts this season. However, that number is depressed by the fact that Cincinnati adjusted by throwing shorter, quicker passes before the Titans could get to the QB. Burrow’s average intended air yards per attempt in the game was a season-low 4.4 yards – his next-lowest all season was 6.2 (loss to the Jets in Week 8).
On paper, the Chiefs haven’t been able to get much pressure through two playoff games, so that could be a silver lining for the Bengals. However, despite generating just an 8.7% pressure rate against Ben Roethlisberger in the Wild Card win over Pittsburgh, the game got out of hand quickly and likely led to a less-fervent pass rush. Then last week, K.C. posted a similar rate (9.8%) against Josh Allen and the Bills. However, Buffalo’s offensive line is much better than Cincinnati’s (eighth at 64% PBWR) and the game turned into a track meet, which tired defenders and gave both quarterbacks plenty of time in the pocket (Mahomes faced pressure on only 9.4% of dropbacks against the Bills’ top-ranked pass defense).
We also have an idea of what this game might look like since we just saw it – the Bengals beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Week 17. However, the stakes are a bit different this time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line – stakes that are much more familiar to the Chiefs – and this game will played in Kansas City, while the Bengals’ victory came at home. Still, we can look at the numbers and see what Cincinnati did to be successful. First, it got a near super-human performance from Burrow, who completed 30-of-39 passes for 446 yards and four touchdowns. The Chiefs pressured Burrow on 26.7% of dropbacks and sacked Burrow four times. Even in that game, Burrow’s 6.7 average intended air yards ranks among the lower performances he’s had in that category this season (fifth lowest), indicating that the Chiefs were having success getting pressure. Cincinnati used a similar strategy in that game as it did last week -- quicker passes. Burrow’s average time to throw in Week 17 was 2.41 seconds, which was the second-quickest average release of any quarterback in that week (Roethlisberger, 2.22 seconds) according to Next Gen Stats. In general, Burrow doesn’t hold the ball that long – his 2.69 seconds of average time to throw in the regular season was eighth-quickest among all qualified QBs. He was well under that mark last week (2.54 seconds) against the Titans and K.C. should expect to see more quick passes from Burrow on Sunday.
It also helped that likely Rookie of the Year, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, actually did provide a super-human performance in the first matchup with KC where he caught 11 passes for 266 yards (an NFL rookie record) and three touchdowns. Burrow had a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeting Chase in the game, completing 11-of-12 attempts to his fellow LSU Tiger, who racked up 153 yards after the catch. According to Next Gen Stats, Chase posted +105 yards after catch over expectation, which was the most a player has ever recorded in a single game since they began tracking (2016). It’s no surprise that it was Chase, either, as he’s been a YACOE monster all season -- two of the six longest YACOE plays of the season belong to Chase, one of which came in the game against the Chiefs, and his YACOE per reception of +4.4 ranked only behind San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel (+5.2), who we will get to in our NFC Championship preview. Chase provided a similar performance in last week’s upset over Tennessee, posting a YACOE per reception of +10.9 -- the next-highest last weekend was this Sunday’s counterpart, Chiefs’ WR Tyreek Hill, who posted a mark of +3.7 – over seven yards per catch less than Chase.
On the other side, the biggest success for Cincinnati was taking away the Chiefs’ two biggest weapons on offense -- Hill and tight end Travis Kelce -- who combined for just 65 yards on 11 catches, though Kelce did grab a touchdown. Only the Denver Broncos held the pair to fewer combined receiving yards in a game this season. In fact, since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter for the Chiefs in 2017, there have been only four occurrences (including playoffs, but not including final regular-season weeks where K.C. had clinched) where Kelce and Hill combined for fewer than 75 combined receiving yards in a game that they both played. If the Bengals are to make sure the glass slipper fits, they will need to keep a lid once again on the Chiefs’ biggest weapons; they’ll need to pass block better than they have at virtually any time this season; and, their stars Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will need to be at the absolute top of their game. It’s a lot to ask, but when you’re trying to knock off the two-time defending AFC Champions in their own stadium with a Super Bowl appearance on the line, and you’re a franchise that hasn’t won the AFC since before Mahomes, Hill or Kelce were even born, that’s just the way it is.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Two of the Best Remain
We’ve mentioned it before, but the Chiefs are an extremely streaky team when it comes to covering the spread: from Week 11 of 2019 through Week 8 of 2020 (including playoffs), Kansas City went 15-2 (88%) against-the-spread. Then, from Week 9 of 2020 through Week 9 of this season (including playoffs), the Chiefs went 3-16-1 ATS (16%). Following that Week 9 failed cover against the Packers, Kansas City went on a six-game cover streak and is now 8-2 ATS (80%) in its last 10 games, including last week’s win and cover against Buffalo. Plus, since the start of the 2019 playoffs, the Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in the postseason. Kansas City was also one of the league’s best Over bets, going 10-7 in that regard in the regular season (tied for second-most Overs) and its last seven games have all gone Over (including both of this year’s playoff wins) with the total score averaging 60.4 points per game during this seven-game run.
On the other side, the Bengals were one of the best teams in the NFL this season when it came to covering the number, finishing the regular season at 10-7 ATS and they’ve now won and covered in both of their playoff games, bringing them to 12-7 ATS (63%) this season. And, they’ve been excellent on the road, going 7-2 ATS (78%), with a league-best +9.4 margin versus the number (including playoffs). Whereas the Chiefs have been a heavy Over team, Cincinnati has leaned more toward the Under, especially in road contests. Nine of Cincinnati’s last 12 road games have gone Under the total (75%), including seven of its nine road games this season (including playoffs), which is the lowest Under percentage in the NFL (78%).
As far as recent history of Conference Championships, they have favored the home teams. Over the past eight seasons, the host team has gone 11-5 ATS (69%) in this round. However, big favorites have been more vulnerable; since 1999, home favorites of at least seven points have gone 6-11 ATS (35%), which the Chiefs are (as of this writing). It’s important to note, though, that with games like this that will be heavily bet, these lines could still shift dramatically should there be strong late action. As of Saturday night, according to Action Network, the Chiefs are getting the majority of both the tickets (64%) and the money (73%), although there has been some sharp action tracked on Cincinnati, which in the past two seasons, is 12-3 ATS (80%) vs. good passing teams (235+ YPG) and 11-3 ATS (79%) when tabbed as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points.
Another note on Conference Championship trends: teams that won in the Divisional Round by fewer than seven points and then had to go on the road for the Championship game are 6-11 ATS (35%) in the last 17 such situations. We mentioned that the Chiefs have a clear advantage in experience and that has shown in the trends as well: Championship game hosts who made the playoffs the previous season are 16-10 ATS (62%) in the last 26 such situations, including 6-2 ATS (75%) in the last eight occurrences when their opponent did not make the playoffs the prior season.