Can the Sequel Live Up to the Hype?
Florida/Bama's SEC Championship rematch, Oklahoma/Nebraska & Penn State/Auburn
NEBRASKA (2-1) @ #3 OKLAHOMA (2-0) 12PM (ET)
LINE: OKLAHOMA -22.5, TOTAL: 62.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
A Change at the Top
On January 11, 2021, Alabama defeated Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff National Championship. And, on January 12, 2021, it was officially time to start thinking about the 2021 Heisman Trophy. At that time, OU’s Spencer Rattler was the consensus betting favorite to win the award, as low as 3-1 at some books. It stayed that way all the way until the start of the season. But after the first week of actual football had been played, Rattler started to move down the board. Now, two weeks into the season, the early Heisman favorite has something to prove, as he’s been passed by two SEC quarterbacks: Alabama’s Bryce Young (now the favorite) and Ole Miss’ Matt Corral (who was around 40-1 in January). It’s not that Rattler has been bad to start the season -- he hasn’t -- it’s just that the other two are putting up otherworldly numbers. And, although Rattler has been solid, he’s been relatively unspectacular in two OU wins, including a Week 1 win over Tulane that was far closer than it ever should have been -- Oklahoma won by 5, despite being favored by 31. Rattler has completed over 75% of his throws in 2021 (50-65) for 547 yards, with 6 TDs and 2 INTs, and has run for a score. This game against Nebraska will provide Rattler with a shot to prove that the opening odds were more indicative of what he can do -- this game will be played on a national stage (FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff) against a Big Ten opponent, a Nebraska team that ranks outside the Top 50 in total defense in the FBS. And, the Cornhuskers haven’t won a game against an AP Top 5 team in their last 11 tries, surrendering over 38 points per game and 425 yards per game in those contests. In fact, the last time Nebraska beat a team ranked in the Top 5 was nearly 20 years ago … when they beat #2 Oklahoma in October of 2001.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Massive Money Backing OU
The public and the money have spoken: They love them some Sooners. Oklahoma is garnering 69% of the tickets and 92% of the money bet in this game, causing this line to jump from an opening number of -19.5 to the current -22.5. Both teams have been good against the number recently -- Nebraska is 5-2 in its last seven ATS and OU is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
A Difference in Styles
Oklahoma is known for putting up points -- they just dropped 76 last week in a shutout over Western Carolina -- and Vegas knows this. But sometimes, it’s hard to make the total high enough in games featuring the Big 12’s (for now) most explosive offense. Over the last 20 home games where OU was favored by at least 20 points, the total has gone OVER in 15 of those games (15-3-2). On the other side, we have Nebraska, which has seen the total go UNDER in 13 of its last 20 road games, including seven of the last nine.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
The Most Effective Play in Football
The play-action pass is often cited as the most consistently effective weapon for any offense and you’re not going to get an argument from Rattler. The Sooner signal-caller has been extremely effective in his career when utilizing the play-fake, completing 71.6% of his passes and averaging 9.5 yards per attempt with a 19-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those 19 TD passes are the second-most in FBS since the start of last season, behind only Matt Corral (who has 23).
A balanced attack is the key to any offense’s success and Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley is a staunch believer in that. Since 2017 (when Riley took over), the Sooners have had 14 games with at least 250 passing yards and 250 rushing yards, which is the most in college football over that time. As if that wasn’t enough, there’s OU’s penchant for the big play: They are also the FBS leader since 2017 with 422 plays from scrimmage that have gone for 20+ yards. So, all Nebraska needs to do to slow down Oklahoma is to be strong against the run, contain a Heisman-contending QB through the air and limit the big plays. Easy, right?
#1 ALABAMA (2-0) @ #11 FLORIDA (2-0) 3:30PM (ET)
LINE: ALABAMA -14.5, TOTAL: 60
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Rematch of an Instant Classic
If this year’s matchup is anything like last year’s SEC Championship, fans are in for a thrilling day. Alabama scored 35 points in the first half and took a three-score lead into the break, seemingly on their way to another rout (Bama hadn’t won any game to that point by less than two scores). But the Gators showed a tremendous amount of grit and toughness, as they clawed their way back to within four points. Ultimately, it was the juggernaut Tide that held on to win 52-46 in the second-highest scoring SEC Championship Game ever.
While it would be unrealistic to expect that again, both teams have plenty of firepower to make it entertaining. Florida has been particularly explosive this season, leading the SEC with 17 plays of 20+ yards. While Alabama hasn’t racked up the chunk plays like they did last season (tied for FBS lead in plays of 20+ yards in 2020 with these Gators and North Carolina), they continue to light up the scoreboard like no other Power 5 team. The Tide have scored 30 or more points in 28 straight games, the second-longest such streak in FBS history, behind only UCF from 2017 to 2019 (31 straight).
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Not So Fast, My Friend
Alabama is the #1 team in the country. They’re the reigning National Champions. They have the Heisman favorite as their starting QB. Their head coach is the GOAT. But before you go throwing down some money on the Tide to roll, let’s look at some of the numbers that Action Network is reporting. While 72% of the bets are on Alabama (we would expect the public to bet the #1 team hard), 59% of the MONEY is on Florida. Not only that, but Action is reporting sharp money (professional bettors) coming in on the Gators. Action tracks five potential “signals” on each game that they post -- Sharp Action, Big Money, PRO Systems, Top Experts and Model Projections -- and they currently have four signals pointing toward the Gators covering the 14.5-point spread and none for Alabama.
History Favors the Tide … and the Over
In the 13 matchups between these two schools since 1998, Alabama has covered the spread 9 times, though Florida has gone 2-1 ATS in the last three. In the last five matchups between these two teams, the total has gone OVER every time, including the SEC Championship last season when the total was set at SEVENTY-FOUR.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Big Edge at the Biggest Spot
One of the major stories in college football so far this season has been the play of first-year starting QB Bryce Young, who -- as noted earlier -- is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Generally, the toughest thing for young QBs is adapting to pressure at the next level. However, according to Pro Football Focus, Young is averaging 11.0 yards per attempt when under pressure (4th-best in FBS) and has been sacked just twice in 29 pressured dropbacks. His 132.4 passer rating (NFL scale) under pressure ranks third in the nation among quarterbacks who have dropped back at least 20 times under duress. He also leads the nation with five touchdown passes thrown under pressure and ranks third with 14 first down throws. So, Florida should just sit back and cover, right? They could try, but Young is even better when not pressured, completing 82.1 percent (32 of 39) of his passes for 285 yards and two touchdowns.
On the other side, Florida has a first-year starter as well, with Emory Jones replacing Kyle Trask, who is currently sitting behind some guy named Tom Brady on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers depth chart. But Jones’ accuracy so far this season has not been nearly at the level Trask reached in 2020. According to PFF, over 41% of Jones’ passes beyond the line of scrimmage have been deemed uncatchable -- Trask’s rate in 2020 was 22%. The other bad news for Jones? Four of his passes have been catchable … for the defense. Jones is the only FBS quarterback who has thrown at least four interceptions while attempting fewer than 50 passes.
#22 AUBURN (2-0) @ #10 PENN STATE (2-0) 7:30PM (ET)
LINE: PENN STATE -5, TOTAL: 52.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Like Father, Hopefully Unlike Son
Auburn and Penn State have only met twice, both times in bowl games. The most recent was the 2003 Capital One Bowl, a game that Auburn won 13-9. But, for the purposes of the current matchup, the other meeting is far more interesting. Why? These teams met in the 1996 Outback Bowl, and Penn State crushed Auburn 43-14. How does a game that happened 25 years ago pertain to this Saturday? We’re glad you asked. The starting QB of that ’96 Auburn team was a kid by the name of Patrick Nix … who happens to be the father of the current Auburn QB, Bo Nix. Tigers fans are hoping that the younger Nix has a much better time against the Lions than the elder Nix, although it won’t be too tough to pull off that feat. Patrick had one of the worst performances that a quarterback can have in that ’96 game, completing just five of 25 passes (yes, that number is correct) with 2 INTs before being pulled from the game (he did throw a TD pass as well). In Nix’s defense, the game was played in a crazy rainstorm. Good news for Bo: the forecast for game time Saturday in Happy Valley has the chance of rain at under 10%.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Follow the Money … Or Maybe Not
Action Network is reporting that 58% of the bets and 65% of the money bet so far has been on the Nittany Lions. However, this line has actually moved in favor of Auburn; it opened at Auburn +7.5 and currently sits at +5. There has been some sharp action reported on the Tigers, but it’s possible that the line was just too high -- all three of the NumberFire, Team Rankings and CBS Sportsline computer algorithms have Auburn covering easily, and Sportsline has Auburn winning this game outright 52% of the time.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Hard to Find Data on Auburn
Normally, this is the section where we take a deep-dive into the numbers to see if they match what our eyes can see -- and if they don’t, we try to figure out why. Here’s the problem, though: Auburn hasn’t played a real game yet. That’s not fair; technically, they have. They’ve beaten Akron and Alabama State by a combined score of 122-10. But it’s nearly useless to try to surmise anything from those games because those teams are so far from this Penn State team that Auburn will see on Saturday. According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who puts out the SP+ rankings -- one of the best analytical-based college football rankings in the business -- Akron is the 5th-worst team in the entire FBS (which includes 130 schools). Alabama State isn’t even in the FBS, as they are an FCS school -- and not even a good FCS school. In Alabama State’s other game this season, they barely squeaked by some school called Miles College.
So, it’s safe to say that Penn State, ranked 7th in the country in SP+, presents an entirely new challenge for Auburn, which has essentially been in preseason mode. That’s bad news for Bo Nix, too, because he’s 4-8 in his career against ranked opponents, completing 55% of his passes with a 12-9 TD-INT ratio and less than 190 passing yards per game. And this ranked Penn State team boasts the 5th-best SP+ defense in college football, including LB Jesse Luketa, who was PFF’s top-ranked defensive player in all of college football in Week 2. PFF has graded Penn State’s pass coverage as the third-best in the nation, making it a tall order for Bo Nix to avenge his father’s 1996 Outback Bowl performance.