Can Mahomes Make it 4-0 Against Jackson's Ravens?
Plus, is Tyreek Hill the greatest deep-threat ever?
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 pm (ET)
LINE: CHIEFS -3.5, TOTAL: 54
TWO THINGS THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Jackson & Harbaugh’s Kryptonite
The Ravens and Chiefs are meeting Sunday night, the 4th consecutive season that these two teams have lined up against each other -- and all three games were quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Mahomes has gotten the better of Jackson in all three matchups with his Chiefs going 3-0, and throwing for 1,136 yards, 9 TDs and 1 INT in those games. Jackson has struggled against Kansas City, completing 52.6% of his passes, his lowest mark against any team against which he has attempted at least 50 passes. While Jackson hasn’t thrown any INTs vs the Chiefs, he’s lost two fumbles and taken 9 sacks in those three games; the only team that has sacked him more is Cleveland, but he’s faced Cleveland six times. Jackson has averaged 170 yards passing in the three games, to go along with 65.3 yards rushing.
Not only has Kansas City had the edge at quarterback, but the Chiefs have also had one at head coach, too. Since John Harbaugh -- who worked under Andy Reid in Philadelphia from 1999-2007 -- and the Ravens beat Reid’s Eagles in 2008, Reid has bested Harbaugh in the last five encounters. Reid’s Eagles won in 2012, and he has not lost to Harbaugh since moving to Kansas City (4-0).
Don’t Wake Me Up When September Ends
We mentioned it in last week’s note, but it bears repeating after yet another victory: Patrick Mahomes has dominated in September, and he has dominated the AFC North. Mahomes was born in September and is celebrating his birthday this weekend (he turned 26 on Friday), but more importantly he has never lost a game during the month, going 11-0. He has also thrown 35 TDs in September with ZERO interceptions. And, after last week’s win over Cleveland, he moved to 7-0 in regular season games vs. the AFC North, his most wins against any division without a loss.
TOP TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Don’t Wake the Sleeping Home Dog
Last Monday night, the Ravens went off as a 3-point road favorite and fell to the Raiders in OT, 33-27. This week, John Harbaugh’s club is a home underdog. Sunday night will mark just the 14th time that the Ravens are a home dog since 2008, when Harbaugh took over. In their last five outings in such situations, the team is 4-1 outright and ATS. Conversely, Kansas City is 0-3-1 ATS over their last four as a road favorite and were 2-4-1 ATS in those situations overall in 2020, despite winning all 7 games straight-up.
These Lines are on the MOVE
This matchup opened with the Chiefs as a 1-point favorite but has slid all the way to Ravens +3.5. The Chiefs have attracted 75% of the tickets and 56% of the money, according to Action Network, but they are reporting sharp action (pro bettors) on the Ravens. It’s not just the spread, either: the total opened at 51.5 and has moved to 53 or 54, depending on the book. While 60% of the tickets are on the over, including some sharp action, 58% of the total money has been wagered on the under.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Cheetah Cheat Code
An interesting topic popped on social media last week as Tyreek Hill was tossing up “deuces” yet again and racing in for another long score: is he the best deep-threat in NFL history? He’s definitely the best current deep-threat in the game, and it’s not particularly close. The 75-yard touchdown that Hill brought in last week against the Browns was the 27th deep score (thrown 20+ yards downfield in the air) since 2016, 10 more than the next closest player (DeSean Jackson). In Week 1, Hill was Pro Football Focus’ #1 rated wide receiver, the only WR to earn an “elite” grade from the service. And, according to Next Gen Stats, Hill was the target for a ridiculous 73.5% of Patrick Mahomes air yards, by far the most in the NFL in Week 1 -- Eagles rookie DeVonta Smith was second at 62.1%. Hill was targeted 15 times by Mahomes and the average air yards on those throws was over 15 yards downfield. He was 2nd in the NFL in Week 1 with 11 catches (Amari Cooper had 13) and led the league with 197 yards.
The best deep threat ever? Randy Moss might have something to say about that. But there’s no question that Tyreek is one of the most feared weapons in the NFL and Baltimore will need a plan to try to slow him down -- good luck.