Bye, Bye Big Ben
An in-depth look at Roethlisberger's likely final season, plus previews of LAC/CIN, BAL/PIT and DEN/KC
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (6-5) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (7-4), 1:00ET
Line: Bengals -3, Total: 50
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Fourth-Quarter Fireworks
Not only do we have a matchup of two AFC Playoff contenders in the early afternoon window, but it’s also a game that could have us intrigued to the final whistle. This contest features two of the top-scoring, fourth-quarter teams in the NFL -- Cincinnati ranks 3rd with 9.3 points scored per final period, while the Chargers are right behind them, 4th at 9.1 (only New England 9.6, and New Orleans 10.8, score more points in the final quarter).
Although the Bengals are on a stretch of three straight blowouts (25-point loss vs. Cleveland, 19-point win in Las Vegas and 31-point win over Pittsburgh), they were the cardiac cats in the early portion of the season. Five of their first eight games were decided by exactly three points (2-3 in such games). If you’re looking for “down to the final whistle” games, look no further than the Chargers; LA has had eight of its 11 games decided by one score. Before a 15-point loss in Denver last week, the Chargers had played four consecutive one-score games that were decided by a total of 17 points (2-2 in those games).
The Chargers had earned quite the reputation for their futility in one-score games; in 2019, they had a 2-9 record in games decided by eight points or fewer. They got better in 2020 at 5-7 in such contests, starting out with 1-7 record in those games before ending on a four-game winning streak in one-score outcomes. They’ve carried that momentum into this season, going 5-3 in such games. Talk about a roller coaster for Bolts fans: from the beginning of 2019 through Week 10 of 2020, LA was 3-16 in games decided by eight points or fewer. Since then, the team is 9-3 in the tight ones.
What’s interesting is that the Chargers were known as the team that loses one-score games, but the Bengals have actually been worse. In 2019, Cincinnati went 0-7 in games decided by eight points or fewer. In 2020, they were 2-5-1. Since the beginning of 2019, the Bengals are 4-15-1 in games decided by a single score. Final note: these teams met in Week 1 last season and the Chargers emerged victorious, 16-13. That was the one victory that LA had in a one-score game in its first eight such contests in 2020.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Public and Pros Backing Bengals
After starting the season 4-1 against-the-spread in their first five games, the Chargers have gone ice cold, failing to cover in five of their last six, including the past three straight. They’ve also been terrible against the Bengals and have not covered against Cincinnati in the regular season since 2006. These teams have met seven times (not including playoffs) since 2009 with the Bengals going 6-0-1 ATS in those games. This season, Cincinnati is 6-5 ATS but has covered four of its past six games including two straight. As a home favorite though, the Bengals have struggled to a 3-6 ATS record over the past nine games dating back to 2018. The public and the pros are all over the Bengals, though, according to Action Network: 59% of the tickets are on Cincinnati, 89% of the total handle are headed in its direction, including sharp action.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
These Kitties Have Bite
Rightfully so, much of the attention on Cincinnati this season has focused on the Tiger connection between LSU alums Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow is currently the second favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year following an ACL tear in 2020 that cost him the final six games (he’s at +600 odds, while Dak Prescott is the odds-on favorite at -450 according to Vegas Insider). Chase is a leading contender for Offensive Rookie of the Year, though he is also second to odds-on favorite Mac Jones (Chase is at +180 odds while Jones is -225).
But the real recipe for this season’s success has been the defense. Last year’s Bengals finished 26th in the NFL in total defense (389.2 YPG), 22nd in points allowed (26.5), and dead-last in total sacks (17). This season, the team is 13th in total defense (348.2), tied for 6th in points allowed (20.5 points/game) and has 11 more sacks (28 total) this season through 11 games than in all of 2020. After posting almost exactly one sack per game last year, they’re averaging more than 2.5 per game this season.
A large part of that success is due to the emergence of Trey Hendrickson who is tied for 6th in the NFL with 10.5 sacks. Hendrickson spent his first four seasons with New Orleans, totaling just 7.5 sacks over his first three years in the league before posting a career-high 13.5 in 2020. Out to prove that was not a “contract-year performance,” Hendrickson is on pace for 16 sacks after signing his four-year, $60 million deal with the Bengals this past offseason. Opposite Hendrickson is Sam Hubbard, who has 7.0 sacks of his own. Plus, according to ESPN Analytics, Hubbard has been the second-best, run-stopping EDGE player in the NFL this year with a 34% run stop win rate (only Cameron Jordan of the Saints has been better at 36%).
But are the Bengals sack numbers sustainable? Analytics gurus are fond of saying that pressure rates and pass-rush win rates are more predictive of future success than sack numbers. And despite Cincinnati’s penchant for bringing the QB down, the team doesn’t win at the line of scrimmage enough, according to ESPN. The Bengals are tied for the fourth-lowest, pass-rush win rate in the NFL as a team at 35%. Chargers QB Justin Herbert has been sacked 21 times this season and the LA offensive line is tied for 18th in pass-block win rate at 58%. The Bengals’ ability to disrupt Herbert will be paramount to keeping the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year in check. Herbert has been sacked seven times over the past three games and has thrown four interceptions with at least one INT in each game.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-3) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-5-1), 4:25ET
Line: Ravens -4.5, Total: 44
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Lamar’s Liability
There’s no question that Lamar Jackson can do things on a football field that no other person on the planet can accomplish. This season, we’ve seen him make plays that make us go, “WOW!” The problem is that he’s also had quite a few that make us go, “wow…” Jackson is second in the NFL in turnovers with 15, throwing 12 interceptions and losing three fumbles. Only Ryan Tannehill has turned the ball over more (16), but Tannehill has played two more games this season than Jackson. No one averages more turnovers per game than Lamar (1.5), who is also coming off the first four-interception game of his career, Although the Ravens still somehow beat the Browns 16-10 despite the QB miscues.
Pittsburgh has been good at getting Jackson to cough the ball up, as well. In two career starts against the Steelers, Jackson has thrown five interceptions and lost two of his four fumbles. The 2021 Steelers have not been adept at turning over opponents though, forcing only 10 this season which is tied for third fewest (only Jets 9 and Jaguars 6 have forced fewer). While Jackson has thrown seven interceptions in his past three starts, the Steelers have picked off only five passes for the entire season. Although, over the last two weeks, Pittsburgh has recorded at least one INT in back-to-back games for the first time this season. The Steelers have three interceptions in their past four contests after forcing only two over the first seven games. Pittsburgh has forced multiple turnovers in a game only once this season, a 29-27 win over Chicago. But multiple turnovers haven’t actually been a death knell for the Ravens this season; interestingly, Baltimore is 4-2 in games where it turns the ball over at least twice.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Steelers’ Struggles
Pittsburgh has been one of the worst spread teams in the NFL this season, going 3-7 ATS over the past 10 games. The club also hasn’t been good at bouncing back (3-8 ATS record following a straight-up loss the previous week) and is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games at Heinz Field. The one trend in the Steelers favor is going 5-0-1 ATS in the rare instances they are billed as a home underdog since 2018. Pittsburgh hasn’t failed to cover as a home underdog since 2017 and has won five of the six games outright. Although, the one game they did not win was against Baltimore and Lamar Jackson in 2019 -- the Ravens won 26-23 with the Steelers as three-point home underdogs, which went down as a push. Baltimore has been good in Pittsburgh, with that push being the only non-cover in its last five trips (4-0-1 ATS). Including playoffs, the Ravens haven’t lost against-the-spread in Pittsburgh since 2014, going 5-0-2 in that span. Overall, Baltimore is 8-3-2 ATS in this rivalry since the start of the 2015 season. The bettors are thus far backing the trends with the Ravens garnering 58% of the bets and 93% of the money, which has pushed this line from an opening number of -3 to the current number of -4.5.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
End of an Era
The Ben Roethlisberger Era is coming to an end in Pittsburgh, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Saturday. Many thought that was the case after he suffered a season-ending injury in the second game of the 2019 season, but Big Ben came back in 2020 to lead the team to an 11-0 start and eventually Wild Card loss to the Cleveland Browns. In hindsight, though, the end of last season was a sign of things to come. After throwing four interceptions in his first nine starts of 2020, Roethlisberger tossed 10 in the final seven games, including four in the playoff loss against Cleveland. After posting a passer rating of 100+ in seven of his first nine starts, he accomplished that only once in the final seven contests.
It’s gotten even worse in 2021, with Big Ben posting one of the worst seasons of any quarterback this year, outside of a couple rookies. Out of necessity, Roethlisberger gets rid of the ball faster than any passer in the league, averaging 2.43 seconds to throw according to Next Gen Stats. He’s the only quarterback who is under 2.5 seconds, as the next closest is Tom Brady at 2.52 -- another veteran QB who can’t rely on athleticism to avoid the pass rush. Roethlisberger’s average completed pass travels 4.8 air yards from the line of scrimmage which is tied with Patrick Mahomes for the second-shortest average completion (Jared Goff is the lowest at 3.6 CAY). Although, Mahomes attempts to throw the ball downfield more than Ben, evidenced by his 7.6 average intended air yards (IAY) which is more than a half-yard higher than Roethlisberger (7.0). The biggest difference between Mahomes and Roethlisberger, though, is that while the defense must respect Mahomes’ ability to throw the deep-ball even though he’s struggled this season, Roethlisberger is receiving no such respect. Mahomes is the “least aggressive” passer in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats with an 8.9% aggressiveness rating (the aggressiveness rating is defined as passing attempts into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion). Meanwhile, Roethlisberger’s 19.3% AGG% ranks second highest in the league, behind only Joe Burrow’s 20.4%. But Burrow pushes the ball down the field far more than Roethlisberger, as his 8.4 IAY will attest. Big Ben, along with Tua Tagovailoa and Matt Ryan, are the only three passers in the league who average 7.0 or fewer IAY and have an AGG% above 15%.
While Roethlisberger has never been one of the best at fitting balls into tight windows, he previously completed the passes he was supposed to complete. In 2016, when Next Gen Stats started tracking xCOMP +/- (for refresher on this stat, click here), Ben posted a mark of minus-0.3. The following season, 2017, he posted the same mark. In 2018, he jumped up to +0.3. But since the injury that cost him the majority of the 2019 season, he’s been on a stark downward trend. In 2020, he posted his worst mark ever, sitting at minus-1.8, which was 7th-worst among passers with 300+ attempts. This year, it’s gotten worse, dropping down to minus-2.4 which is tied for fourth-worst among QBs with 200+ attempts. They say that the player is often the last to realize that it’s time to hang up the cleats, but as the great philosopher Eminem once said, “When your run is over just admit when it's at its end.”
DENVER BRONCOS (6-5) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-4), 8:20ET
Line: Chiefs -9.5, Total: 47
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
One-Sided Rivalry
To say that the Chiefs have the Broncos number would be a massive understatement; when this game kicks off, it will have been 2,271 days since the Broncos beat the Chiefs. Barack Obama was the President of the United States the last time Denver defeated Kansas City (Sept. 17, 2015). Hamilton had just premiered on Broadway one month prior to the last time the Broncos won a game vs. the Chiefs. The Golden State Warriors had just won their first NBA Championship in 40 years. Patrick Mahomes had just made his sixth career start … at Texas Tech. We could keep going, but you get the picture: it’s been a while.
The games haven’t been particularly close, either. The average final score over the past 11 meetings has been Chiefs 29.4 to Broncos 18.5. Kansas City has scored 20+ points in every game during the streak; Denver has scored fewer than 20 points in seven of the 11 games. The Broncos haven’t scored 20+ points against Kansas City since October of 2018. The last time Denver scored at least 20 points… just kidding.
The Chiefs have scored 30+ points five times during the 11-game series win streak, while the Broncos have not accomplished that once. It’s been particularly ugly in recent memory; over the past four meetings dating back to the start of 2019, the Chiefs’ average margin of victory is 19.3 points. The interesting thing about this rivalry is that prior to the Chiefs current 11-game run, Denver had beaten Kansas City in seven straight games.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
ATS Dominance Has Followed Overall Dominance
Based on the above notes, it will come as no surprise that Kansas City has been extremely good against Denver when it comes to the spread. The Chiefs have covered nine of the past 11 games against Denver. Additionally, five of the past six games between these teams has gone Under the total.
Kansas City has begun to turn the corner on this season in what started as a disastrous start against-the-spread, covering only two of their first nine games. However, they have covered the past two games, moving their 2021 record to 4-7 ATS. But dating back to last November, the Chiefs are just 4-14-1 ATS and last week’s cover against Dallas broke a nine-game ATS losing skid at home. Five of their past six games overall have cashed on the Under and four of their past five at Arrowhead have gone Under, as well.
Denver has been streaky this season, starting with a 3-0 ATS record, followed by a four-game ATS losing skid before covering three of the past four (6-5 ATS overall in 2021). More interesting for Denver is that nine of their 11 games this season have gone Under including each of the past five.
Despite the Chiefs’ recent run of dominance, 69% of the bets and 91% of the money is on the underdog Broncos, according to Action Network. The public is apparently aware of the Broncos’ and Chiefs’ tendency to go Under the total, with 66% of the tickets going in that direction. However, the money (79%) is siding with a bucking of those trends and hitting on the Over.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Massive Mismatch
The Chiefs have advantages all over the field: they have the better quarterback, the better receivers, the better tight end -- some of those players are among the best in the NFL at their positions. But where the true mismatch in this game lies is up front; the Chiefs offensive line is coming together, and the Broncos defensive front is not.
According to ESPN Analytics, the Chiefs offensive line is littered with players who are among the best at their positions, including rookie C Creed Humphrey who leads all NFL centers in pass-block win rate (97%), in addition to being Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded center (90.9). In addition, K.C. has the best offensive guard in the league in Joe Thuney, who has a 97% pass-block win rate, and has the fourth-best guard in that category, Trey Smith (96%). Offensive tackle Orlando Brown is among the league’s best run-blockers (third among OT with an 82% run-block win rate). Add it up and Kansas City ranks fourth overall in the NFL with a team pass-block win rate of 66% and tied for third in the league with a 74% team run-block win rate.
The Chiefs will now face a Denver defensive front that is 27th in the league at pass-rush win rate (35%) and 26th at run-stop win rate (28%). They’re not great on the other side either, ranking tied for 14th in pass-block win rate (60%) and tied for 20th in run-block win rate (69%). So how is Denver winning games (three of their past four) despite losing “in the trenches,” which every analyst agrees is of massive importance? In large part the Broncos are winning because of their discipline. They have been assessed 58 penalties this season -- which is the fifth fewest in the league -- and their 498 penalty yards against are fourth fewest. In their past five games, they haven’t once accrued 40+ yards of penalties against. Furthermore, they have turned the ball over just 12 times this season, which is tied for fifth-fewest. They will need to play smart, clean football if they want to snap their 11-game losing skid against Kansas City. Over the last 11 meetings in this series, KC has a +20-turnover margin, only turning it over eight times while the Broncos has 28 giveaways (2.5 per game). Even if Denver continues to be careful with the football -- they have only one multi-turnover game this season, with four against Las Vegas -- it still won’t be easy to snap the skid, as the Chiefs have seemingly hit their stride in 2021 winning four straight games. If Denver can pull it off, it will make the AFC West a whole lot more interesting as we head down the final stretch.