Buffalo Tries to Solve its "Brady Problem"
Preview of three of Sunday's biggest NFL matchups, DAL/WSH, BUF/TB & CHI/GB
DALLAS COWBOYS (8-4) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (6-6), 1:00ET
Line: Cowboys -4.5, Total: 48
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Injury Bug Bites Again
In the Cowboys first six games of the season, quarterback Dak Prescott was making a strong case that he could be the NFL’s MVP this season and we even wrote about how he could become the first player to ever win both the MVP and Comeback Player of the Year in the same season. But after missing the team’s Week 8 victory over Denver with a calf injury, Prescott hasn’t been the same player since his return.
Dallas raced out to a 6-1 record, thanks in large part to Prescott’s stellar play, but is 2-3 since his return from that injury. In his first six starts, he completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,813 yards, 16 touchdowns, four interceptions and was sacked eight times. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt and 302.2 yards/game with a passer rating of 115.0. Over the past five outings, however, he’s completing 64.5% of his passes with 1,357 yards, seven touchdowns, four interceptions and taken nine sacks. He’s averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, 271.4 yards per game and has a passer rating of 87.4, with all of those numbers representing a precipitous drop from his hot start.
While Prescott’s injury could be partially to blame, the overall health of the Cowboys’ offense has declined as well. Starting tackle Tyron Smith missed Weeks 9, 10 and 11 with injury, while starting WR Amari Cooper missed Weeks 11 and 12. And while fellow WR CeeDee Lamb hasn’t missed an entire game, he started popping up on the injury report in Week 9 and has been there every week since with various ailments – ankle, triceps, and concussion – and did miss the second half of the team’s loss against the Chiefs with that concussion. Plus, starting running back Ezekiel Elliott has been nursing a knee injury since Week 5 and the team even discussed sitting him out to rest, though Elliott has rejected that plan. Also, backup running back Tony Pollard missed practice early in the week with a foot injury and is questionable to suit up on Sunday. While Prescott may not fully be to blame for the five-game stretch in which he and the team have struggled, as the starting quarterback who signed a $160 million contract extension in the offseason, it’s up to him to figure it out.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Trending in Opposite Directions
After starting the season 1-7 ATS in its first eight games, Washington is now on a four-game ATS winning streak. What’s more impressive is that WFT has won those four games outright as the underdog. The Cowboys are nearly opposites, starting the season 7-0 ATS, but they are just 2-3 ATS in their past five. When favored by less than seven points this season, Dallas is 4-0 ATS, and the club is 7-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents, outscoring them 34 to 19 on average. In terms of totals, the Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these division rivals, but the Under is 11-2 when Washington faces a winning team since 2019.
The public is slightly on the ‘Boys with 56% of the tickets in that direction, but a heavy 75% of the money — including sharp action — is on Dallas. With regard to the total, 54% of the bets are on the Under but 72% of the money — again, including sharp action — is on the Over, according to Action Network.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Offensive Turnaround
The Washington Football team surprised a lot of people in 2020 by making the playoffs by winning the very lackluster NFC East and without a winning record (7-9). Perhaps more head-scratching though was the team’s ability to advance to the postseason despite struggling to run to the ball and protect their quarterbacks. Washington finished 26th in the NFL last year with 100.7 yards rushing per game and tied for 29th with the Giants and Texans allowing 50 sacks. Only the Eagles – who had an astounding 65 sacks allowed – were worse.
This season, however, has been quite a turnaround for the maligned Washington offensive line and the emergence of second-year running back Antonio Gibson. WFT is averaging nearly 25 more yards per game on the ground (124.4) than last year and is surrendering a full sack less per game this year (2.1 sacks allowed per game this season vs. 3.1 sacks last season). Gibson, who rushed for 795 yards in 14 games last year, has already amassed 800 yards on the ground in 2021 and he’s currently the NFC leader in that category. He’s also second in the league in rushing for first downs with 53, trailing only Indy’s Jonathan Taylor who has accounted for 86 first downs on the ground. Two areas that Gibson needs to improve if WFT is going to make a run for consecutive postseason berths: fumbling and explosive plays. No running back in the NFL has fumbled as many times as Gibson’s five and his three lost fumbles leads all NFL players. And Gibson’s longest run this season is 27 yards; among the 10 running backs who have run for at least 700 yards this season, only Gibson and Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris have failed to record at least one run of 30+ yards.
The advanced analytics agree that the offensive line has been a big reason for the improvement with Washington leading the NFL with a 76% team run-block win rate, according to ESPN Analytics. WFT is also tied for third in the league as a team in pass-block win rate at 67% with Kansas City (only the Rams, 68% and Browns, 69%, are better). In the run game, they are led by guard Brandon Scherff (tied for third among OG with 75% RBWR) and center Chase Roullier (NFL-leader among C with 84% RBWR – the next closest is Jacksonville’s Brandon Linder at 76%). In the passing game, tackle Charles Leno, Jr. is tied for third among OT with a 93% PBWR and guard Ereck Flowers is also tied for third among OG with a 96% PBWR. So, four of Washington’s five offensive linemen rank among the Top 10 in the NFL at their position in either pass blocking or run blocking, helping them to a one-year turnaround that is among the best in the league.
BUFFALO BILLS (7-5) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-3), 4:25ET
Line: Bucs -3.5, Total: 54.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Familiar Foe
When Tom Brady and the Bucs welcome the Buffalo Bills to town on Sunday, it’ll be a matchup that we’ve seen plenty of times before, although never in this city. While Brady has faced the Bills 35 times in his career, this will be his first matchup not wearing a Patriots uniform. Regardless, Brady has tormented the Bills for the better part of two decades, posting a 32-3 record against them in those previous 35 contests. His 32 wins against Buffalo are his most vs. any opponent in his career, as are his 8,669 passing yards, while his 70 touchdown passes are his second-most against an opponent (he has 72 TD in 36 career games against the Dolphins).
While the Bills have had quite a franchise turnaround under head coach Sean McDermott, who took over in 2017, he hasn’t been able to crack the “Brady Code” as his Bills are 0-6 against the future Hall of Famer during his tenure. It’s worth noting, however, that McDermott’s defense has been up to the task of defending Brady, despite losing the games. In the 29 meetings with the Bills prior to McDermott, Brady averaged 252.3 yards per game passing, 7.7 yards per passing attempt and had a 66-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio (3.3-to-1) along with a 101.5 passer rating. In those games, New England averaged 30.4 points per game. In the six games from 2017 and beyond, Brady has averaged 225.5 yards per game passing, 6.8 yards per passing attempt and had a 4-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio (0.8-to-1) with an 80.2 passer rating against McDermott’s Bills, while the Patriots averaged 24.8 points per game. It was the Buffalo offense that let the team down in those contests, averaging just 10.7 points in the six games against Brady’s Patriots from 2017-19.
As we will discuss in the analytical section below, this year’s Bills passing defense is one of the league’s best. Plus, their offense scores 28.0 points per game, which is tied for fifth. Can they continue to be successful against Brady and finally put enough points on the board to get one in the win column for McDermott?
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Tampa Turnaround
After starting the season 3-6 ATS, Tampa Bay is on a three-game ATS winning streak, which includes double-digit covers against the Giants and Falcons (-11 in both games). The Bills have alternated wins and losses (3-4 both SU and ATS) for the past seven games after starting the season 4-1 (both SU and ATS). But they have been a great wager vs. NFC teams, going 6-0 ATS in the non-conference slate in the past two seasons. In terms of totals, the Over is 6-0 in the past two seasons when the Bills face good passing teams (235+ pass YPG) on the road. The Over is also 13-4 after a double-digit win during the Bruce Arians Buccaneers era. While 59% of the bets are on Tampa, according to Action, 54% of the money is on Buffalo — including sharp action. And while 68% of the tickets — including sharp action — is on the Over, 51% of the total handle has been bet on the Under.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Good Timing for Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills were embarrassed on Monday Night Football against the Patriots last week and not because they lost to the AFC’s current top seed, 14-10 but because of how they lost. While Patriots QB Mac Jones attempted just three passes in the game for 19 yards through the air, the New England ground game repeatedly gashed the Buffalo defense to the tune of 222 yards rushing on 46 carries (4.8 yards per carry). The Bills knew the Patriots were going to run the ball on essentially every play, but there was nothing they could do about it. It was embarrassing, even if Bills defenders don’t want to hear it. It wasn’t the first time it happened, either. Two weeks ago, against the Colts, Buffalo allowed 264 rushing yards in a truly embarrassing 41-15 loss at home. Indy RB Jonathan Taylor reached the end zone five times. It’s a mystery what happened in those two games because Buffalo has been otherwise quite stout against the run, holding eight of its 12 opponents under 80 yards and going 6-2 in those games. Prior to the matchup with the Colts, the Bills were third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, permitting only 83.9 per game. Entering Week 14, however, they have dropped to 12th in the league, now allowing 107.1 yards per game on the ground.
Fortunately for Buffalo, the ground game isn’t a strength of this week’s opponent. The Bucs have failed to reach 100+ yards rushing in four of their past five games and rank 25th in the NFL with 92.6 yards per game. The Bucs run the ball on a league-low 33.1% of their offensive plays, electing to put the ball in their Hall of Fame QB’s hands with a league-leading 43.1 passing attempts per game. Tampa’s rushing yardage this season accounts for just 22.9% of its total offense, the league’s lowest percentage.
In the passing defense department, Buffalo is one of the NFL’s best units, allowing league-lows in opponent completion percentage (57.7%), yards per pass attempt (5.3), passer rating (62.9) and a league-fewest 165.3 yards passing per game. The Bills were second in that category before the Patriots 19-yard passing performance. In other words, the strength of the Bucs offense plays right into the strength of the Bills defense, setting up for an interesting battle between the league’s best passing offense and the league’s best passing defense. It’s pretty clear that the Bills would prefer that kind of game over the ground-and-pound alternative.
CHICAGO BEARS (4-8) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-3), 8:20ET
Line: Packers -11.5, Total: 43
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
“I Still Own You!”
Those are the words that Aaron Rodgers shouted after scoring a touchdown earlier this year against the Bears, and this week he stood by his comments. Why shouldn’t he? He HAS owned Chicago in his career — and the NFC North as a whole. Over his past nine divisional games, Rodgers has a 30-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio (8-1 record in those games). He hasn’t thrown an interception against the Bears since 2018, which was the last time that he lost a start vs. Chicago (5-0 since). In his last 14 starts against Chicago (dating back to 2014), Rodgers has thrown 36 touchdown passes with just two interceptions, is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 113.5 passer rating. The Packers are 12-2 in those 14 games – in each of the two losses, Rodgers threw one interception; in the 12 wins, he threw zero picks. For his career, the Packers are 5-4 when he throws an INT against the Bears in the regular season; they are 16-1 when he doesn’t throw any.
Since Rodgers became the Packers starter in 2008, Green Bay has swept the season series with Chicago eight times with a chance to make it nine on Sunday night. The last time the Bears swept the season series against the Packers was the year before Rodgers took over (2007). In fact, from the time Rodgers was drafted (2005) until he took over as the starter, Chicago won five games against Green Bay (5-1 from ’05-07). Since then, the Bears have won five games against Green Bay (5-21). Chicago as a team seems cursed by Rodgers mere presence in the division; since 2007, the Bears have just one playoff victory (2010). And following that Divisional round victory over Seattle in 2010, the 2nd-seeded Bears were knocked out in the NFC Championship game … by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. So, yeah, “I own you” seems like an applicable chant from the future Hall of Famer to the Soldier Field faithful.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Trending Toward a Packer Victory
While the Packers continue to bring good cheer to bettors with a 10-2 ATS mark this season, the Bears are just 4-8 ATS this season, including 1-6 ATS in the past seven contests. Chicago is also 0-9 ATS vs. winning teams in the second half of the last three seasons. As totals go, Green Bay’s last two have gone Over the total after seven-straight Unders where the team failed to surpass 25 points in any game. The Under at 8-4 has been the play for Chicago this season, and the Under is 19-8 after a Bears loss with Matt Nagy as the head coach. While a massive 67% of the tickets have been bet on the Packers, 51% of the money — including sharp money — is actually on the road underdogs in this contest, according to Action.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Adjusting to the NFL
It’s been noted several times in recent STAT Stacks about the struggles of the rookie quarterbacks this season – all of them except Mac Jones, that is. This week, we posted an in-depth analysis of #2 overall pick Zach Wilson’s most recent start against Philadelphia, which you can read over at Walter Football.
In this game, we get the return of Justin Fields, who has missed the last two Bears’ games due to a rib injury. Count Fields among the struggling rookies, and he has looked overmatched at times this season. His 136.1 passing yards per game are the lowest in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least five starts and nearly 25 yards lower than the next closest (Miami’s Jacoby Brissett at 160.4 passing yards per game). Despite starting only eight games this season, Fields is fourth in the league with 31 sacks taken; all three passers ahead of him have started at least 11 games (Lamar Jackson 37, Joe Burrow 36 and Ryan Tannehill 33). Fields has been nearly identical in terms of completion percentage with the other struggling first-round quarterbacks as his 58.1% is just ahead of both Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence’s mark of 58.0% – those are the three lowest in the NFL among QBs with at least five starts. Fields has thrown twice as many interceptions (8) as touchdown passes (4); he is the only starting QB who has thrown two interceptions for every one touchdown pass.
Some of his interception issues can be attributed to his penchant for the deep ball. Fields’ average pass travels 10.2 air yards (IAY), according to Next Gen Stats, which is the highest in the league and half-a-yard higher than the next-highest (Lamar Jackson, 9.7 IAY). His 1.1 air yards to the sticks is also the highest in the league by a wide margin. Only four passes even have a positive number in this category – Russell Wilson, Jackson, and Matthew Stafford – with Wilson’s 0.6 representing the second-highest figure. Fields’ 58.1% completion percentage is 3.6 points worse than his expected completion percentage of 61.7%, giving him an xCOMP +/- of minus-3.6 which is sixth-worst in the league among QBs with 5+ starts. However, he’s been much better in that respect than Wilson (-7.9) and Lawrence (-6.4), who are the two worst passers in that category. He’s also been better than his teammate, Andy Dalton, who has a -5.2 mark, but has started only four games this season.
The Packers have had a solid passing defense this season, ranking Top 10 in completion percentage allowed (seventh, 62.9%), opponent passing yards per game (ninth, 219.2), and opponent passer rating (eighth, 87.3) which has led to the fifth-best defense in terms of points allowed per game at 20.2. For a Chicago offense that’s scoring the third-fewest points in the league at 16.8, it could be another long day at the office for the first-year signal caller.