Big Day in the Big Ten
Two games that will go a long way in helping to determine the Big Ten's place in the CFP picture
#6 MICHIGAN (7-0) AT #8 MICHIGAN STATE (7-0), 12ET
Line: Wolverines -4, Total: 50.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
An Unheralded QB
We talk a lot about the quarterbacks in these articles because generally those are the players who everyone knows. But when it comes to Michigan State, their QB Payton Thorne might be the fourth-most recognizable name on the offense. During Michigan State’s surprising start, a lot has been made of running back Kenneth Walker, and receivers Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor; that trio is largely the story of MSU’s season thus far. Walker is three yards shy of 1,000 yards rushing on year and is the FBS leader in yards after contact, with 73.5% of his 997 yards coming after the first hit. Reed and Nailor have each caught 27 balls on the year, with Reed going for 562 yards and five touchdowns and Nailor for 512 yards and six TDs. They trail only Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,156 yards) for the top receiving yardage duo in the Big Ten.
But there are those who sense that Payton Thorne’s performance is being a bit taken for granted. Even if, perhaps, just as a storyline. Thorne has two remarkable targets in Reed and Nailor (Tre Mosley, with 21 catches for 321 yards, isn’t bad, either) and a running game that’s among the best in the nation. He also had one forgettable half against Nebraska that nearly cost the Spartans the game. But he’s also dropped in some incredible pinpoint passes of late and made plays in the pocket with his awareness and legs that you don’t often see in a young passer. Statistically, Thorne’s early days are behind only Drew Stanton’s of his junior year in 2005, the year that moved Stanton up NFL draft boards. Jeff Smoker, who holds the school record with 3,395 passing yards in 2003, had 1,818 after seven games. Thorne is just off that pace with 1,701, but Smoker posted that number as a senior; Thorne is a redshirt sophomore. Kirk Cousins holds the school record for most TD passes thrown in a season with 25, a number he also posted as a senior. But Cousins didn’t throw for his 15th score until the 10th game of the season; Thorne has 15 through seven.
Winning is where Thorne has them all beat. Connor Cook and Brian Lewerke were 6-1 after seven games in their first seasons as the primary starter. Hoyer was 5-2, Stanton was 4-3 and Cousins was 3-4. Thorne is 7-0. Some of that has to do with what Thorne has around him on offense and elsewhere. But it’s worth noting that, statistically, Michigan State’s redshirt sophomore quarterback is off to the best start of any QB ever to play in East Lansing.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Good Run for Harbaugh
Michigan is 6-1 ATS this season, trailing only Syracuse (7-1 ATS) and UTSA (7-1 ATS) for the best cover percentage in FBS. The Wolverines have been favored in 6 of their 7 games. They’ve also covered three-straight conference games following an 0-6 ATS run dating back to 2020.
But Michigan State has had a lot of success against their in-state rival, going 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings (since 2006). That’s the best cover percentage of any FBS team who has faced Michigan at least five times over that span. That record includes a 4-2 ATS record since Jim Harbaugh took over the program.
As far as the total, the over is 19-8 in Michigan games under Harbaugh (since 2015) when playing a ranked opponent and the over is also 18-11 in Michigan road games under Jim Harbaugh (since 2015), including 8-2 since 2019 and five-straight since the start of last season. Typically, though, this rivalry tends to be lower-scoring; the under is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings. Plus, since 2000, Michigan and Michigan State have met 6 times when both are ranked: the under is 5-1 in those games.
According to Action Network, both the tickets (58%) and the money (71%) are backing the Spartans, and that includes sharp money. And while 66% of the bets are on the under, the money is split exactly 50-50 with sharp action on the over.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Dynamic Duo
Michigan State is led on the ground by one stalwart running back, Kenneth Walker. Michigan uses a two-back system, and both players -- senior Hassan Haskins and sophomore Blake Corum -- are having outstanding seasons. Michigan is the only FBS school that boasts two running backs with at least 10 rushing touchdowns on the season and the first team since 2005 USC to have multiple RBs with 10+ touchdowns through its first seven games. That year, Lendale White (26) and Reggie Bush (18) combined for 44 scores on the ground.
While Haskins and Corum can’t be expected to match one of the greatest RB duos in college football history, they’re doing their best. In last week’s win over Northwestern, both backs rushed for over 100 yards. It was the second time this season that both crested the 100-yard mark, and trails only the 1975 Michigan duo of Rob Lytle and Gordon Bell, who had four such games. Corum is averaging 104.1 yards on the ground per game and Haskins is at 86.0. Their combined total of 190.1 yards per game is nearly 50 yards ahead of MSU’s Walker, who leads the country with 142.4.
Both defenses are solid against the run. Michigan St. is 19th in the country, allowing 112.3 rushing yards per game to FBS opponents. They are 16th in yards per carry surrendered, allowing 3.2 per tote. Michigan is 22nd in yards per game allowed 115.7 and 29th in yards per carry at 3.5. However, Michigan State has only faced one Top 50 rushing offense this season (Nebraska). Michigan has already faced Wisconsin, 17th in the country at 218.4 rushing yards per game; the Wolverines held the Badgers to 43 total rushing yards, and Wisconsin’s leading rusher (Chez Mellusi) had just 13 yards.
#20 PENN STATE (5-2) AT #5 OHIO STATE (6-1), 7:30ET
Line: Buckeyes -19.5, Total: 61
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
One-sided Rivalry
Ohio State is the cream of the Big Ten crop, that’s not up for debate. Ohio State has made the College Football Playoff four times out of the seven seasons that the CFP has existed. Combined, the rest of the Big Ten has … one appearance (Michigan State in the 2015 season). The Buckeyes have also won five of the last seven Big Ten titles and four straight. Michigan State’s Playoff team captured the Big Ten in 2015 and Penn State won the league in 2016. The Buckeyes have been dominant in Big Ten play, as well, winning 25 straight games against conference opponents.
If Penn State wants to be considered among the elite programs in the country like they used to be, they have to get up to the level of Ohio State. Penn State is no stranger to being a Top 25 team and this will be the 18th time that these teams have met as AP-ranked opponents since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993; only LSU and Florida have met more often as ranked foes over that span (20). But the Buckeyes have dominated those games; Ohio State is 20-8 on the field (includes vacated wins) since 1993. That’s the best mark by any team that has played PSU at least 10 times over that span. Penn State is 2-12 in Columbus over that stretch, their worst record against any team they’ve played at least five teams on the road since joining the Big Ten. And head coach James Franklin is 1-6 against Ohio State, his most losses against any opponent as a head coach.
To be the best, you have to beat the best. And since joining the Big Ten, Penn State hasn’t been able to consistently beat the best.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Big Dogs, Small Bite
This will be the 9th time Penn State has gotten more than 17 points since the 2006 season and six of those have come against Ohio State. The Nittany Lions do have two outright wins in those games, 2016 against Ohio State and 2013 at Wisconsin, but are 3-5 ATS. Additionally, Penn State is 4-21-1 ATS following a loss under James Franklin (since 2014). That’s the worst such cover percentage in FBS over that span. But despite being 1-6 straight-up against Ohio State, Franklin’s Lions are 5-2 ATS against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State has been strong against-the-spread vs. conference opponents with a 15-6-1 record in their past 22 games. Interestingly, they’ve been better on the road; at home, they are 11-16 ATS against Big Ten opponents in their past 27 matchups. Penn State has covered two straight in Columbus and four of the last five overall against the Buckeyes.
The Buckeyes are attracting 64% of the tickets, 80% of the money and sharp bettors, according to Action Network. DraftKings opened this line -- prior to last weekend -- with Ohio State as a 12.5-point favorite. It was bet down to Buckeyes -11 in less than twenty minutes. But after Penn State’s home loss against Illinois, the number immediately moved to Buckeyes -16.5 when it reopened. Since then, it has only continued to move towards the home team, with Ohio State currently sitting at -19.5.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Stroud’s Heisman Bid
No one’s quest for the Heisman Trophy has been more of a roller coaster than Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. Before the season started, you would find Stroud on odds boards at around 10-1, the fourth-favorite trailing Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler, Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei and Alabama’s Bryce Young. You won’t find Rattler or Uiagalelei anywhere near the top at this point, but Bryce Young has jumped to the head of the table, just ahead of this season’s big riser: Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. While Young has been in the Top 5 all season, and Corral has been on a steady upward climb, Stroud has taken a circuitous route to the Top 3.
After the team lost to Oregon in the second week of the season, Stroud began to fall down the board. And the following week, in a win over Tulsa, Stroud threw for 185 yards on 15-25 passing with one touchdown and one interception. That performance sent him to 17-1 and by the time Ohio State had finished resting on their bye week, Stroud was all the way down to 42-1. But it was a well-timed bye because we’ve seen a different CJ Stroud since then. He has not thrown an interception post-bye (three games), while tossing 14 touchdown passes. He’s completed over 70% of his passes in each game, something he did not accomplish in any of the team’s first three games. He’s only taken one sack, after going down four times in the previous three. Those performances had him steadily climbing back up the board and he’s currently the third-favorite at 5-1.
It should be noted, however, that in those three games Stroud did not face a single Top 75 passing defense (in passing yards allowed per game). In fact, the best pass defense that they’ve faced this season was Minnesota in Week 1, and the Gophers are 62nd in the country in passing yards allowed (226.3). This week’s opponent, Penn State, ranks 8th and allows 170.7 net yards through the air per game. No passer has thrown for 200 yards on the Lions this season, something Stroud has done in every game except one and he’s thrown for 400 yards twice this season. Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.