Welcome to another edition of STAT Stack! In this issue, we’ll be looking at the three biggest games on the Saturday slate.
#12 OREGON (1-0) @ #3 OHIO STATE (1-0, -14.5), 12PM (ET)
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Big-Play Buckeyes
The Buckeyes opened up the playbook in their season-opening win over Minnesota -- despite starting a new quarterback, redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud -- and the result was that all 5 offensive TDs came from at least 38 yards out. Stroud wasn’t as accurate down the field as those numbers would suggest. According to Pro Football Focus, he was 6-for-6 on attempts behind the line of scrimmage, and 4 of 6 from 0-9 yards. But he completed 3 of 9 passes that traveled 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Included in those throws were two TD passes -- tosses to WRs Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, both of whom had multiple yards of separation from their defenders -- and Stroud's lone interception. Stroud will need to improve on throws down-the-field, especially in a matchup with a high-scoring Pac-12 opponent.
Interestingly, Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said he "really wanted" Stroud as a recruit, noting that "he can make every throw." Cristobal also described Stroud as "really smart" and said the Ducks were impressed with his poise, accuracy, and his ability to improvise and make plays with both his arm and his feet. It will be interesting to see if Cristobal’s knowledge of Stroud from the recruiting process will help his Ducks in defending the young signal-caller.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Out-of-Conference Dominance
Ohio State has played 18 games against the Pac-12 since 1995, and in those games, they are 14-4 against the spread, which includes a 2-0 ATS record against the Ducks (a 2015 win in the first-ever College Football Playoff National Championship and a 2010 Rose Bowl victory). In fact, Ohio State has never lost straight up against Oregon, winning all 9 matchups.
Considering that Oregon is traveling across the country, it’s reasonable to believe that Ohio State would hold a natural advantage, but the Ducks are 4-1-1 ATS in road games against Big Ten opponents since 1999.
Bettors Backing Buckeyes
This matchup has seen big line movement since the number opened at Ohio State -10.5, as the line currently sits at -14.5. Some of that can be attributed to Oregon likely being without its best defender, potential Top-5 NFL draft pick Kayvon Thibodeaux, but the biggest reason is the money: OSU has garnered 57% of the bets and 73% of the money, according to the Action Network. The site also has reported sharp action (professional bettors) coming in on the Buckeyes.
Money on Under is Going Over
While only 36% of the total bets are on the under (63.5), 72% of the money is on that side, a stark contrast. Action Network also is reporting sharp money coming in on the under. In Oregon’s last 6 six road games against Big Ten teams, the under has hit five times.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Stroud’s Struggles
As mentioned in the opening note, Buckeye QB CJ Stroud struggled on down-the-field throws, and we’ll dive a little deeper into those numbers here.
According to PFF, more of Stroud’s throws were graded negatively than positively, which included “a quarterback-fault incompletion on 27.3% of his attempts.” Last season for Ohio State, Justin Fields never had a number higher than 17% and his career average was only around 12%. Stroud’s positively-graded throw rate would rank dead-last in Fields’ career as the Ohio State starting QB, as Fields never had a positively-graded throw rate below 50%. Stroud also struggled on quick passes; PFF graded him as a 50.6 passer (out of 100) on throws that occurred within three seconds of the snap -- which, again, is worse than any grade Fields ever received.
All of this comes with the caveats that it was just one game, it was a conference game, and it was on the road in a hostile environment. Furthermore, Stroud had never even thrown a pass in a college football game prior to last Thursday night. It was perhaps more of a signal that expectations were a little too high on the young QB, who was the third favorite for the Heisman Trophy in the preseason. But Ohio State fans are hoping for a stronger performance in Week 2.
#10 IOWA (1-0) @ #9 IOWA STATE (1-0, -4.5), 4:30PM (ET)
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Familiar Matchup with Unfamiliar Implications
The annual Iowa-Iowa State game, which awards the winner the Cy Hawk Trophy, had been played every year since 1977 until last year’s matchup was cancelled due to COVID. In total, these two teams have met 67 times since their first meeting over 125 years ago (1894). But, even with such an extensive history, this week’s matchup presents a new wrinkle: It’s the first where both teams are ranked in the AP Poll. In fact, it’s only the second time ever that Iowa State was ranked when these teams faced off (also in 1978). Although Iowa State has traditionally struggled against ranked opponents (24% win percentage), they are 2-1 in their last three such contests. Iowa has won 5 straight over their in-state rival, so the Cyclones will be attempting to return the Cy Hawk to Ames for the first time since 2014.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
The Reason the Spread Exists
Although Iowa is 14-10 straight-up against Iowa State since 1995, the Cyclones hold the edge ATS at 14-9-1. The line has moved in favor of Iowa, since opening at Iowa State -5.5; it currently sits at -4.5 and is as low as -4 at some books because Iowa has attracted 68% of the bets, according to Action Network. However, sharp money has been reported on Iowa State.
Ignoring History
The total for this rivalry game is currently at 46.5 after opening at 44.5. The number has jumped because 93% of the money has been bet on the over, including sharp action, according to Action. However, history favors the under. It has cashed in 14 of the 19 contests between these two teams since 2001, including five of the last six. Keep this in mind, as well: Winds are expected to reach as high as 16 mph in Ames on Saturday.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Establishing the Run
Iowa State has averaged just under 84 rushing yards per game against the Hawkeyes in the last 5 meetings, while the Cyclones have averaged at least 100 rushing yards against every other team it has faced multiple times since 2015. It’s not just against Iowa State that the Hawkeyes are strong vs. the opposing rushing game; since the start of the 2020 season, Iowa is allowing only 2.8 yards per rush, third-best in FBS behind only Georgia (2.2) and Pitt (2.6). In addition, Iowa is allowing just 1.8 yards after contact per rush in that span, best in the Big Ten and fifth-best in FBS. This presents an interesting matchup because ISU’s starting tailback, Breece Hall, has 853 rushing yards after contact since the start of last season, the most in FBS.
Hall excels on exterior running plays, averaging 6.6 yards per rush outside the tackles last season. Iowa, conversely, allowed just 3.0 yards per rush on carries between the tackles last season, second-best in all of FBS behind Colorado State’s 2.6, meaning it’s in Hall’s best interest to play to his biggest strength.
Additionally, Hall led FBS with nine 100-yard rushing games in 2020 and was held under 90 only once in 12 games last season (79 in a loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship). He also comes into this game with the longest active rushing touchdown streak in FBS (13 straight games).
The winner of the battle in the trenches will go a long way toward determining which Iowa school will remain a Top 10 team next week.
STANFORD (0-1) @ #14 USC (1-0, -17), 10:30PM (ET)
TWO THINGS THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Home, Sweet … Road?
Stanford finished as one of the hottest teams in college football last season after starting 0-2. They reeled off 4 straight wins, all on the road, to finish 4-2 in a pandemic-shortened Pac-12 season. This year, the Cardinal is the only Power-5 team opening with 3 consecutive games away from home, meaning they will be playing 7 straight away from Stanford Stadium dating back to 2020. Stanford lost its opener last week at AT&T Stadium vs. Kansas State, plays at USC this weekend and then at Vanderbilt in Week 3 before its home opener on September 25 against UCLA – which will be its first home game in 315 days (Nov. 14, 2020 vs. Colorado).
Oh, Pac-12…
According to the AP, the Pac-12 became the first Power-5 conference to lose six games on the opening weekend since the SEC in 2016. What’s more, the six losses to unranked opponents were the second-most in any week for a Power-5 league since 2000, with only the Big Ten having more (seven in 2018). The North went 1-5, with Oregon’s win against Fresno State as the only victory. On the other hand, USC, a member of the Pac-12 South, was able to easily get past San Jose State, 30-7, last week. The Pac-12 profiles as a top-heavy conference; despite the losses, five Pac-12 teams are currently ranked in the Top 25 (USC, Oregon, UCLA, Utah and Arizona State).
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Bettors Don’t Think History Repeats
In their last 25 meetings, Stanford is 15-10 against the spread against USC, but the Cardinal haven’t been a double-digit underdog against the Trojans since 2010 (a game Stanford won outright). Bettors clearly don’t care about the history, as the line has moved from USC -14 to the current -17 number. The Trojans have attracted 72% of the bets, 84% of the money, and Action Network has tracked sharp money on USC, which has caused Vegas to continue to push the line in its favor.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Tough Draw for a First Start
The Stanford QB competition between senior Jack West and sophomore Tanner McKee has been decided ... for now. The two battled all spring and fall, and coach David Shaw played both in the opening loss. West started and alternated with McKee, and although neither was particularly effective, McKee has earned the nod this week. He will be making his first collegiate start and he’s going up against a very tough USC defense, particularly on the back end. According to PFF, no Pac-12 coverage unit earned a higher grade in Week 1 than the Trojans. Their outside corners were particularly strong — specifically Jayden Williams, Isaac Taylor-Stuart, Joshua Jackson Jr. and Chris Steele — and only allowed one first down combined, while forcing four incompletions.
On the other side, USC quarterback Kedon Slovis performed well in the season-opening win, earning an 82.6 PFF grade. His deep passing shined, as he completed four of five 20-plus-yard throws for 107 yards and two scores. This week, he gets to attack a soft Stanford defense, which received the lowest grade in the Pac-12 last week, according to PFF.
Thanks for reading STAT Stack! Make sure to subscribe so that you never miss an issue — we send out reports multiple times per week, covering all of the biggest games. Look out for our Sunday NFL report that will cover Steelers/Bills, Browns/Chiefs, and Bears/Rams.