LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (1-0) @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-0) 1PM (ET)
LINE: STEELERS -6.5, TOTAL: 47
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Matchup of Unexpected Unbeatens
Both teams came into Week 1 as underdogs -- the Steelers on the road against the Bills and the Raiders at home against the Ravens -- and both came away with upset victories, albeit in very different fashions. The Raiders won the most exciting game of Week 1, a game that they were almost certain to lose (according to ESPN, the Ravens had a 94% chance to win after Justin Tucker’s go-ahead field goal with 37 seconds left). It was a game that they won, then didn’t win, then won again. The Raiders racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense (491), with over 400 of them coming through the air (409). Vegas averaged 6.1 yards per play and collected 26 first downs, including 7 on 15 third-down chances. While the Raiders defense surrendered over 400 yards, including 189 on the ground, Derek Carr just kept slinging until he hit Zay Jones on a game-winning TD pass in overtime.
On the other hand, it was the Steelers’ defense that beat the Bills; Pittsburgh held Buffalo to just 4.7 yards per play, nearly a yard-and-a-half less than their 2020 average, which was 6th in the NFL at 6.1. That side also came up with the biggest momentum-changing plays, including: a strip-sack by TJ Watt that ended a Buffalo drive in Steelers territory, a blocked punt that was returned for a TD, and two second-half, fourth-down stops that halted Bills drives in plus territory. The Steelers offense gained just 252 yards and didn’t cross the midfield stripe until the second half. Ben Roethlisberger looked shaky, throwing for 188 yards while completing 56% of his passes and taking a pair of sacks. But they don’t put descriptions in the standings, so for the Steelers, all that matters is a big ONE in the win column.
Big question for Las Vegas: Will the Raiders have the energy and intensity, especially early in the game, after winning an emotional match at home on Monday Night Football, considering they had to travel across three time zones and play in the early kickoff window on a short week?
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Raiders have Owned This Matchup
Since 2002, these teams have met 10 times. The Raiders are 8-2 against-the-spread in those games, including a current 4-game ATS winning streak. These teams last met in 2018 -- when the Raiders were still in Oakland -- and the black-and-silver won the game outright despite being 10-point underdogs. In fact, the Raiders have been an underdog in all 10 games since 2002, yet they have won 6 of the matchups straight-up. One last interesting note on those 10 games: The over/under has alternated every year, with that 2018 contest going under the total.
Money Backs the Trend
Although the Steelers are garnering 62% of the tickets, 60% of the money has been bet on Las Vegas. The line seems to be following the tickets and not the money, however, as the number opened at Steelers -5.5 and has grown to -6.5. The total in this game opened at 49 and has moved down to 47 -- although 50% of the tickets are on each side, the under has attracted 65% of the money, including some sharp action (pro bettors), according to Action Network.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
How Bad Was Big Ben?
We noted earlier that Roethlisberger was shaky in Week 1, and the analytics would argue that shaky is a massive understatement. According to Pro Football Focus, Ben was rated as the worst of the 32 qualified quarterbacks (minimum 40 snaps) in Week 1 -- he and Aaron Rodgers were the only QBs who had a PFF grade of less than 50 (out of 100). Of the bottom 13 QBs in the PFF rankings, only Ben’s Steelers and Tua Tagovailoa’s Dolphins won their games.
Next Gen stats don’t paint a much prettier picture for the 18th-year signal-caller: Despite averaging the fifth-shortest distance on intended throws (5.7 yards/throw), Ben completed only 56.3% of his passes. That number is 8.1% lower than his expected completion percentage. And, despite his penchant for shorter throws, Next Gen had him as the second-most aggressive QB in Week 1, behind only Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield. So, Ben attempted short passes into contested windows and completed less of them than he should have, which is not a recipe for sustained success in the NFL. His longest completed pass traveled 30.8 yards in the air, the third-lowest among the 32 qualified QBs in Week 1, ahead of only Chicago’s Andy Dalton (29.3) and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan (26.4).
DALLAS COWBOYS (0-1) @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-0) 4:25PM (ET)
LINE: CHARGERS -3, TOTAL: 55
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Tough Ten Days
It has not been an ideal start to the 2021 season for the Dallas Cowboys. Although the best news for the team was a healthy and strong return for QB Dak Prescott, nearly everything else coming out of Big D has been negative. The team lost its opening game against Tom Brady and the defending champion Buccaneers, but that wasn’t the biggest loss of the past 10 days. Top defensive player DE DeMarcus Lawrence broke his foot during Wednesday’s practice and is expected to miss at least half the season. They also lost WR Michael Gallup to a calf injury (out 3-5 weeks); starting safety Donovan Wilson aggravated a nagging groin injury and will miss Sunday’s game; other starting safety Damontae Kazee did not practice Friday and is questionable for Sunday; starting DE Randy Gregory tested positive for COVID on Monday and will not play Sunday; and starting RT La’el Collins was suspended five games for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. All told, the Cowboys will be without at least four starters (five if Kazee can’t go) when they line up in Los Angeles, their second straight road game to open the season. On the plus side, they happily welcome back All-Pro guard Zack Martin, who missed Week 1 after testing positive for COVID.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Home Field … Advantage?
The Chargers aren’t exactly known for a raucous home crowd, and the apathy from the LA crowd has really hindered their ability to cover the number at home. Over the last 15 regular season games where the Chargers were favored by at least 3 points at home, they are 3-11-1 ATS. In all home regular-season games since they moved back to LA in 2017, the Chargers are 11-19-1 vs. the number.
The good news for LA backers is that Dallas hasn’t been very good on the road at covering the spread: Over their last 11 road games, the Cowboys are 3-8 ATS.
Public Betting and Line Movement
The public likes the Cowboys, with 55% of the tickets on that side, but the money is on the Chargers at 60% -- and that includes sharp action, according to Action Network. The money plus the injury news for the Cowboys has pushed this number from an opening of Chargers -1.5 to -3 and even -3.5 at some books.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Injury Impact
We laid out how the Cowboys are massively impacted by injuries in this game, but we wanted to take a deep-dive on just how much Dallas will be missing in this content. Let’s start with DeMarcus Lawrence: He was Pro Football Focus’ third-best edge rusher in Week 1, behind only Arizona’s Chandler Jones (who had 5 sacks) and Vegas’ Maxx Crosby. Lawrence was easily Dallas’ highest-rated defense player (91.4 grade out of 100), and his presence will be sorely missed. Donovan Wilson, also out this week, was the 16th-highest rated safety in Week 1, out of 67 qualified, according to PFF. S Damontae Kazee, who missed practice Friday and is questionable for Sunday, was 8th -- if he can’t go, the Cowboys would be without two Top 20 safeties, unquestionably a massive blow.
The Cowboys’ offensive line gets a big boost with the return of G Zack Martin, who was PFF’s #2 guard last season out of 80 qualified players (behind only Cleveland’s Wyatt Teller). However, the loss of RT La’el Collins hurts, not only because Collins is a solid blocker, but because he is replaced by Terence Steele, who was one of the three worst tackles in the league last season, grading out at only 50.3.