KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-3) AT TENNESSEE TITANS (4-2), 1ET
Line: Chiefs -4, Total: 57.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Ball Security Concerns
Coming into the season, the Kansas City Chiefs were the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl after reaching the Big Game in each of the last two seasons, with a championship victory in 2019. But after a .500 start through six weeks, many are wondering what has happened to the Chiefs. The most simple explanation is that a team that rarely turns the ball over is suddenly giving it away with reckless abandon. In Reid’s first eight seasons with the team, the most times Kansas City has turned the ball over in one season was 18 (twice, 2018 & 2013). So far in 2021, they’ve already committed 14 turnovers, which would equate to 37 giveaways over a 16-team game schedule. Now, it’s highly-unlikely that the team will continue to cough it up more than twice per game. In fact, the team is leading the NFL averaging 2.3 turnovers per game and they are second-worst in the league with a -8 turnover differential (Jaguars, -10).
It’s actually quite impressive that Kansas City has managed to win half of its games despite handing their opponents the ball regularly. It’s also a massive-departure from the Chiefs of recent seasons. Since 2015, the team’s worst turnover differential in a season was last year at +6 when the team was eighth-best in the NFL. Over the past six seasons, KC hasn’t been outside the Top 10 in turnover differential. In fact, they haven’t been outside the Top 8. Yet this season, they rank 31st. The teams who are nearest them in turnover differential (who average at least -1 per game) -- the Jags, 49ers, and Jets -- have won four games combined.
Lest we lay all the blame on the offense, the defense hasn’t been generating takeaways at their usual level, either. In each of the seasons since 2015, the team has ranked in the Top 12 in takeaways, with at least 22 in each year. This season, they’ve only turned opponents over six times, or one time per game. Add it all up and you have a recipe for a team that was expected to be near the top of the league currently sitting at fourth in their division. Remember, though, that turnovers can be one of the biggest factors of luck in football. If the Chiefs get even a slight improvement in their “ball luck,” the rest of the NFL should watch out: this team is nowhere near out of it.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
These Home Dogs Have Bite
Dating back to 2016, Tennessee has an 8-4 record against-the-spread as a home underdog in their last 12 instances. They’ve won seven of those games outright, as well. Kansas City, on the other hand, has really struggled as the favorite. Since Week 9 of last season, the Chiefs have gone 2-10-1 ATS as a favorite in regular season games. The team has been favored in all six games so far this season, going 2-4 ATS.
This game has seen some interesting line movement and is one worth tracking right up until kickoff on Sunday. At Caesars, the Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites but were bet all the way up to 5.5-point favorites before the money started coming in on the Titans and pushed it back down to 4. The most interesting part of that movement is that the line was posted before Tennessee beat AFC-favorite, Buffalo. Yet, instead of the line moving toward the Titans after their upset victory, it pushed toward Kansas City.
Despite the late movement back towards the home underdog, the tickets and the money still lean toward the Chiefs, with 53% of the bets and 74% of the money going in that direction according to Action Network.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Why Do Analytics Hate Patrick Mahomes?
One of the stats that we like to use here at STAT Factor is completion percentage over expectation (xCOMP +/-) which is the difference between a quarterback’s completion percentage (COMP%) and their expected completion percentage (xCOMP%), which was invented and is tracked by NFL’s Next Gen Stats (NGS). The reason we like this stat is because it often paints a picture about how frequently is a QB is completing passes that he wouldn’t be expected to complete. More often than not, the elite quarterbacks rank very highly in this statistic. For example, last season’s top three in this category were Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers.
But, like any statistic, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Everyone agrees that Patrick Mahomes is an elite quarterback, and many believe that he is the best in the entire NFL. Yet, he’s actually performed relatively poorly in his career in this metric. In 2018, he won the NFL’s MVP award. But he finished 14th among QBs with an xCOMP +/- of +1.2. In 2019, Mahomes and the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. But his -0.6 mark was worse than half of the quarterbacks in the NFL, including guys like Case Keenum, Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold (Jets’ Darnold, to boot). In 2020, it got even worse: Mahomes was 26th among QBs with a -0.9 xCOMP +/-. This season, he’s at +0.6 and again ranks outside the Top 15 passers in the league.
So, what’s going on here? Well, this is why good football analysts use a combination of statistics and the “eye test.” It takes both to get a complete picture, and that’s especially true when you’re dealing with elite players who do elite things: the numbers often can’t equate for what’s never been done before. When it comes to Mahomes and his xCOMP +/-, it’s quite simple: he has the ability to run and throw his receivers open in a way that can’t quite be quantified. What completion percentage over expectation attempts to express is how many passes a player completes that he shouldn’t, or how many passes he doesn’t complete that he should. It takes into account the distance of the throw and how close the nearest defender is at the time the ball arrives. For Mahomes, many of his passes end up with a defender not being close, partially because of his talent, and partially because of the talent of receivers like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Another stat that NGS uses is called “aggression percentage” and this measures how often a QB throws into a tight window, which is defined as having a defender within one yard when the ball arrives. Not surprisingly, Mahomes is one of the lowest passers in this category every season. Among QBs with at least 300 passing attempts, here is how Mahomes has ranked in that stat since 2018: lowest (’18), second-lowest (’19), third-lowest (’20) and lowest (’21). Does that mean Mahomes doesn’t throw into tight windows to complete passes? Not exactly, but it does illustrate how there is often separation between his receivers and their defenders, which Mahomes is partially responsible for creating.
This post is important because it shows how numbers can be manipulated. We here at STAT Factor try to do our due-diligence and provide both the statistics and the context for the statistics so that you can be properly-informed as a reader. It’s also why you can’t just look at one stat and make a judgment in a vacuum. Patrick Mahomes is an elite NFL quarterback, even if xCOMP +/- doesn’t properly illustrate it.
CHICAGO BEARS (3-3) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (5-1), 4:25ET
Line: Bucs -11.5, Total: 47
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Talk About a Mismatch
Often in these posts, we highlight the major differences between teams and how those might manifest within the game. While Tampa Bay’s pass offense doesn’t directly get face Chicago’s pass offense, it’s still worth noting how these teams are WORLDS apart from one another. The Bears are averaging the fewest net passing yards in the league per game at 117.2. The next-lowest team in that category, New Orleans, is over 50 yards per game higher (169.4). The Bucs, on the other hand, lead the NFL with 340.7 net yards per game through the air, which is over 30 yards higher than the Chiefs, who are second (308.5). In fact, Tom Brady averages more gross yards passing in the first half of games (198.3) than the Bears do for the entire game (150.3).
For the season, Bears’ quarterbacks have thrown for three touchdown passes in six games. Tom Brady averages just less than three TD tosses PER GAME (2.8). Bears QBs throw an interception once every 37 passes; Brady throws a pick once every 89 attempts. Bears quarterbacks are sacked on 10.3% of their total dropbacks, the highest-mark in the NFL. Brady and the Bucs take a sack on 4.6% of dropbacks, which is sixth-lowest.
Calling the Bears passing offense a mismatch when going against Tom Brady and the Bucs would be a massive understatement; we’re discussing a historically great aerial attack vs. one of the worst in recent memory. Since 2012, no team has averaged less than 157 net passing yards per game, which the Bears are 40 yards under, currently. During that same span, the highest average passing yards per game was the 2013 Broncos, who averaged 337.4 yards. So, if those numbers were to hold for the entire season, we would be looking at the worst passing offense of the past decade and the best. Mismatch? These teams aren’t even playing the same sport, it seems.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Vegas Accounts for Bucs & Brady
While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5-1 and the current betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, when it comes to their individual games, Vegas considers that the public will tend to side with them. So, there’s a bit of a “Tampa Tax” to betting on the Bucs, and it’s led to a 2-4 ATS record for the team so far this season. However, the Bears aren’t exactly spread dominators themselves, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.
So, we mentioned the “Tampa Tax” above, and it comes into play when looking at the betting breakdown so far. While 60% of the bets are on the Bucs (public), 59% of the money -- including sharp money -- is on the Bears (pros). What you’re looking at here is an inflated spread; Tampa Bay is probably not 11.5-12.5 points better than Chicago, but Vegas must account for the heavy backing of the public on Tom Brady and the Bucs. So, the pros are jumping on the Bears at a value number. It doesn’t mean that they’re going to cover, of course, but professional bettors are always looking to gain value. The heavy money coming in on Chicago has this line moving down, despite the 60% tickets on Tampa. At many books, this game opened around 13 points for Brady’s Bucs but has been pushed down to 11.5 or 12. However, at DraftKings, the line still sits at Buccaneers -13 and actually opened at Bucs -10. Why the difference? DraftKings is one of the biggest players in the mobile betting market, if not the biggest, and they see a heavier flow of public money than some of the other Vegas books.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
In-Depth Look at Justin Fields
Normally in this section we take a deep-dive into the numbers. However, earlier this week we posted an entire article on Justin Fields’ most recent start that breaks down every throw that he made. If you’re a true sports nerd who loves to have as much information as possible, that article will provide you with the best content we could provide as a preview to this game. It was originally posted on former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum’s new platform, The 33rd Team, and you can check it out the article: here.