Bad Time for Russell's Return?
Seattle's QB has struggled against Green Bay, plus why the Browns need to run the ball at least 30 times against NE
CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-4) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-4), 1ET
Line: Patriots -2.5, Total: 45
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
What Happened to the Home-Field Advantage?
Gillette Stadium replaced Foxboro Stadium in 2002 as the home of the New England Patriots. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the home crowd propelled the team to unprecedented success, especially in their new building. The Pats were 126-26 at home (.826 win pct) in the regular season from 2002-2020. They had seven perfect seasons at home and averaged 6.6 home wins per season over that span, with no seasons at or below .500.
This season, however, the vaunted Gillette Stadium advantage has not only disappeared, but completely flipped. In their first four games at home this season, the Patriots went 0-4. Their only home win this season came against the Jets. Because the Pats have nine home games in 2021, they can still keep the above-.500-at-home streak alive, but they would need to win every remaining game at Gillette -- and that includes upcoming matchups with the Titans and Bills after this contest against Cleveland, three teams with current winning records.
Either way, their four home losses this season are more than they had in any of the previous 20 seasons. In Belichick’s first season as head coach in 2000, the team went 3-5 in Foxboro; one more home loss this year and they will match that mark. If they lose two more, you’d have to go back to the 1992 Patriots who went 2-14 overall and 1-7 at home to find a Pats team that lost at least six games at home in a season. We are in uncharted territory and in the midst of a transition period for a franchise that dominated the NFL for the better part of two decades and getting their homefield advantage back has to be one of the top priorities for the new era.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Reversal of Fortunes on Both Sides
We mentioned the Patriots’ struggles at home this season, and it has held against-the-spread, as well. New England has gone 2-4 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite, which is a huge departure from the Tom Brady era. From Week 7 of 2017 through Week 8 of 2019, the Pats posted a 14-3 record ATS as a home favorite. Since then, the team is 5-7 ATS giving points at home.
Cleveland has been good on the road recently following a horrendous stretch. Over their past seven road games, the Browns are 5-2 against-the-spread including 3-1 this season. Prior to that stretch, Cleveland was 1-9 ATS on the road from Week 5 of 2019 through Week 12 of 2020. The Over has cashed in six of the Browns past nine road games. However, since Brady left, eight of the Pats 13 home games have gone Under the total (four overs and one push).
Action Network is reporting 51% of the bets, including sharp action, on the Browns, but 68% of the money going toward the Patriots. Similarly, 55% of the tickets, including sharp action, are on the Over, while 62% of the total handle is on the Under.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Ground-and-Pound
Cleveland boasts the most potent running game in the NFL, averaging 160.2 yards per game. It hasn’t seemed to matter who is toting the rock, either; both projected top backs -- Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb -- have missed time this season and they will both miss this contest too. Hunt continues to recover from a calf injury that landed him on IR following Week 6 and Nick Chubb, who previously missed time with a calf injury of his own, will miss this game after testing positive for COVID. The Browns’ RB room was hit hard by the virus this week, as Chubb, Demetric Felton, and John Kelly will all miss the trip to Foxboro.
That leaves D’Ernest Johnson to carry the load for the second time this season. That doesn’t appear to be an issue, as he ran for 146 yards and a touchdown in a win over Denver the last time he was called open for lead duty. For the season, Johnson is averaging 5.3 yards per carry which would rank in the Top 10 in the NFL if he had enough carries to qualify. Nick Chubb leads all RBs with 6.0 yards per carry and Kareem Hunt is 11th at 5.2. As a team, Cleveland’s 5.3 yards per carry lead the NFL, and is one of two teams averaging at least five yards per rush (Indianapolis 5.1).
The Browns have rushed for 150+ yards in seven of their nine games (5-2) and less than 100 in the other two (0-2). Interestingly, the sweet spot against the Patriots defense looks to be in the range that Browns have yet to hit this season: between 100-150 yards on the ground. New England is 0-3 when its opponent’s rushing total is between those numbers. When teams rush for more than 150 yards against them, the Patriots are actually 2-0. When opponents rush for less than 100 yards, the Pats are 3-1. The bigger key seems to be rushing attempts vs. yards gained. When opponents rush 30+ times, they are 3-1 against New England. When they are under 30, the Patriots are 3-1. In three of the Patriots five games at home, their opponent rushed 30+ times. New England lost all three games. Cleveland is fifth in the NFL, averaging 30.3 rush attempts per contest, and third in the NFL in rushing play percentage, running on 48.8% of all plays. It’s no secret that the Browns will try to establish the run early and often, the only question is can Belichick scheme his defense to stop it?
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-5) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-2), 4:25ET
Line: Packers -3.5, Total: 49.5
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Boy, Are We Glad You’re Back
With Seattle sitting with a 2-2 record and trailing the Rams 9-7 early in the second half, Russell Wilson banged his hand against Aaron Donald’s arm. Though he stayed in the game for another series, it was clear he wasn’t fit to play and was replaced by Geno Smith. Seattle would go on to lose that game as Wilson headed for surgery. The Seahawks would lose the next two before beating Jacksonville last week and miraculously Wilson is returning the field just four weeks later, despite an initial timeline of 6-to-8 weeks.
Smith’s stats don’t look too bad in Wilson’s place for 3½ games: he completed 68.4% of his passes for 702 yards for five touchdowns and one INT -- that he threw in relief during the game against LA. Though he didn’t throw a pick in any of his three starts, Smith was sacked 13 times in those games and lost a fumble that gave Pittsburgh the ball in field-goal range in overtime, a game that the Seahawks lost.
Regardless, Seattle has to be ecstatic to get its franchise QB back under center. Wilson has completed 72.0% of his passes this season with 10 touchdowns and one interception, while leading the NFL in passer rating (125.3). On the other sideline, we have the return of Aaron Rodgers who missed one game after testing positive for COVID. Jordan Love, Green Bay’s 2020 first-round pick, got the start last week and he was … not good. The Packers scored just seven points against one of the NFL’s worst defenses (Kansas City), while Love had 190 yards passing on 34 attempts (5.6 yards/attempt), tossing one TD against one interception.
Now we get the showdown that we all wanted: Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson. In the middle of last week, we weren’t sure we would see either of these guys out there this week -- now we’ve got both.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Advantage: Packers
In his first two career starts against the Green Bay Packers, Russell Wilson won and covered both. But since then, including playoffs, the Packers have gone 5-0-1 against-the-spread vs the Seahawks. As a home favorite, the Packers have covered 13 of their last 18 overall (including playoffs). They’ll put that strong record on the line against a Seattle team that’s been even better as a road underdog: the ‘Hawks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when getting points in an opposing stadium (including playoffs). However, one of those three failed covers came in Lambeau during the 2019-2020 playoffs (Packers won 28-23 as 4.5-point favorites).
The Packers have attracted 56% of the tickets and 64% of the money in this matchup, though Action Network is reporting sharp action on Seattle. Bets on the Total are dead-even at 50-50, but 79% of the money (including sharp action) is on the Over.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
A True Home-Field Advantage
The theme of homefield advantage in this report continues because the home team has dominated this matchup since Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers began facing each other in 2012. Rodgers’ Packers have faced Wilson’s Seahawks eight times (including playoffs), and the home team has won all eight of those contests (each team is 4-4). Three of Wilson’s wins came between the 2012-2014 seasons (3-0 in that span), while Rodgers has gotten the better of this rivalry since the beginning of 2015, going 4-1 against Seattle.
In his regular season career against Green Bay, Russell Wilson has gone 105-176 (59.7%) passing for 1,150 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions in six games. His completion percentage is lower against Green Bay than against any opponent that he has faced at least three times. His QB rating against the Packers (81.9) is his lowest vs any team, and his 9-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio is the second-worst against any opponent (5-to-4 vs. the NY Giants). Wilson has also never thrown for more than 240 against the Packers in the regular season. As expected, his numbers are worse at Lambeau Field; Wilson has completed 55-of-96 (57.3%) passes with three touchdowns to six interceptions. He’s also taken eight sacks in those three games. And he threw a career-high five interceptions at Lambeau in Week 14 of the 2016 season -- Wilson has not thrown more than three INTs in any other regular season game in his career. He did throw four interceptions in a playoff game … against the Packers (though that game was played in Seattle).
On the other side, Rodgers has started against the Seahawks eight times in the regular season in his career, going 5-3 in those games. He’s completed 174-253 (68.8%) for 1,995 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. However, he’s been sacked 26 times in those games, including a career-high-tying eight times in the 2012 loss -- Wilson’s first against the Packers. In four regular-season games against Seattle in Green Bay, Rodgers has thrown seven touchdowns and one interception. He’s been sacked eight times in those games, compared to 18 in Seattle.
Side note about Rodgers’ sack numbers: five appears to be the magic number. When Rodgers has been sacked at least five times in a regular-season start, the Packers are 6-18. When he’s sacked fewer than five times, they are 115-58-1, winning nearly two games for every one loss. If Seattle is going to beat Rodgers in Lambeau for the first time ever, the team is going to have to get pressure. However, Rodgers has not been sacked more than three times in a game this season and the Seahawks have not recorded more than three sacks against any opponent. But to do something that they’ve never done, they might need to do something that hasn’t been done.