Analytics Argument Against Rodgers for MVP
In-depth preview of Arizona vs Dallas and a deep-dive into Aaron Rodgers' MVP case
ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-5) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (11-4), 4:25ET
Line: Cowboys -6, Total: 52
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Rookie Rondale
When discussing under-heralded rookies this season, you can’t have a complete conversation without talking about Cardinals’ wide receiver Rondale Moore, the #49 overall selection in the 2021 Draft. Moore has been overshadowed heavily by the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and others. But Moore is arguably one of the most important rookies to his team – to wit, the Cardinals are 7-1 when Moore totals at least 25 yards from scrimmage and 2-4 when he’s under 20 yards. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but it does show how having him on the field and involved can change the entire look of the Arizona offense. Moore is a game-time decision for Sunday’s game (ankle), and his inclusion in the lineup could go a long way to setting the Cardinals up for success.
Moore’s ability to get open downfield, especially on plays where quarterback Kyler Murray uses his legs to buy time, is extremely valuable. According to Next Gen Stats, Moore averages 5.7 yards of separation at the time the ball arrives, which is the most in the league by a wide margin – no other player is above 4.3 yards. Moore is also afforded a huge cushion at the line, since defenses don’t want to risk his quick-twitch ability losing the defensive backs quickly; only Baltimore’s Devin Duvernay gets a larger average cushion at the time of the snap (8.1 yards) than Moore (8.0). Moore also leads the NFL in catch percentage, as 84.4% of the throws in which Moore has been targeted have turned into receptions. Only two others are above 80% in catch percentage in the NFL -- Las Vegas’ Hunter Renfrow and Seattle’s Gerald Everett.
Moore does nearly all of his damage after the catch, and he amazingly has more yards after the catch (438) than he does total receiving yards (435) since so many of his catches occur behind the line of scrimmage. Moore is the only wide receiver who has an average depth of target below five yards; not only is Moore below five yards, but he sits at 1.4 ADOT, a range primarily reserved for running backs. Only San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel averages more yards after the catch among wide receivers than Moore (Samuel’s YAC/R is 9.8 to Moore’s 8.1). Getting their first-year wideout healthy and involved in the offense will go a long way to helping the Cardinals gain an edge against the Cowboys elite defense.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
To Be the Best, You Gotta Beat the Best
Dallas has been the best spread team in the NFL this season, covering 12 of its 15 games for an 80% cover percentage and its +6.0 average point differential against the spread is the third-best mark in the league (New England +6.5 and Indianapolis +6.4). Their average margin of victory this season is 10.0, one of two teams in double-digits (Buffalo, 10.9). We discussed the league-wide trend of struggles by home underdogs, which goes to a larger trend of road teams being better against the spread this season than home teams. Dallas is one of seven teams in the NFL that is above 50% cover percentage as a home favorite (5-2 ATS, 71.4%). The Cowboys average margin of victory in such games is 16.7 and they are +9.6 points vs. the spread, both of which are the league’s best marks. Dallas is also 10-0 ATS versus NFC opponents this season, outscoring conference foes by an average score of 34 to 18.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys will square off against the league’s best road underdog. Arizona is 5-0 ATS this season in that situation, one of two teams that has been perfect (Green Bay is 3-0). Its average margin of victory in such games is an incredible 17.8 points (the next-closest is Cincinnati at 10.0) and the Cards cover the spread by an average of 21.8 points as road underdogs. Despite this dominant road run, bettors are chasing the Cowboys league best overall ATS record, with 57% of the tickets, 81% of the money and sharp action going in that direction, according to Action Network. Maybe that’s because Arizona is 0-8 ATS facing good offensive teams (350+ YPG) in the second half of the season since 2020. Two coaching trends pointing to a high-scoring game on Sunday are Kliff Kingsbury’s 7-0 Over mark (average final score of 58.4 points) after a close defeat (6 points or less) as Arizona’s head coach and Mike McCarthy’s 7-0 Over record (average final score of 68.8 points) as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the Dallas head man.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-8) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-3), 8:20ET
Line: Packers -13, Total: 42.5
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Rodgers MVP Based on Name?
Following a bad loss by the Tampa Buccaneers to the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago, in which Tom Brady and the Bucs offense was shut out, Aaron Rodgers leap-frogged Brady and is the current odds-on favorite to win this year’s MVP award (-175 at DraftKings). Most people know the story; Rodgers threatened to sit out, or retire, or go host Jeopardy instead of playing for the Packers this season, but ultimately, he elected to return. The team is 12-2 in games started by Rodgers and on the precipice of earning the #1 seed in the NFC (89% chance according to FiveThirtyEight). And we have the benefit of knowing what the Packers look like with Rodgers out, and it wasn’t good – a 13-7 loss to the Chiefs in which the offense looked particularly bad.
There’s no question that Rodgers is extremely valuable to the Packers, but according to the analytical numbers he’s not as much of a slam-dunk MVP as the narrative might imply. In traditional metrics, Rodgers performs strongly – he’s tied for fourth in the league in touchdown passes (33), he’s thrown the fewest interceptions (4) among quarterbacks who have started at least 10 games, he leads the league in passer rating (110.8), he’s tied for sixth in completion percentage (68.0%), and 10th in passing yards (3,689). Plus, his 12-2 record (85.7% winning percentage) as a starter this season is the league’s best among quarterbacks who have started more than one game. Impressive, all of it.
But the deeper numbers (courtesy of Pro Football Reference) paint a slightly different picture. First, Rodgers averages 6.1 yards after the catch on his throws, which is third most in the league, meaning Green Bay receivers are doing a lot of damage after the catch. Plus, Rodgers has been the beneficiary of strong receiver play this season, with a league-low 2.2% drop rate – no other QB is under 3.0% (Patriots QB Mac Jones has the next lowest at 3.1%). Rodgers has a 76.0% on-target throw rating, which is 21st in the league, just behind players like New York’s Daniel Jones and Washington’s Taylor Heinicke. He’s tied in that category with Bills QB and fellow MVP candidate Josh Allen, but Allen has 15.9% “bad throw” percentage that ranks 10th lowest. Rodgers, meanwhile, has a bad throw percentage of 18.9%, which is tied for 24th-lowest.
It’s not a result of pressure, either; Rodgers faces pressure on 22.3% of dropbacks, which is 19th-highest among quarterbacks and the Packers offensive line is tied for 6th in pass-block win rate at 65%. Rodgers is also attempting shorter passes this season, with 7.8 average air yards per attempt, which would be the first time he finished a full season under 8.0 IAY since Next Gen Stats began tracking in 2016. And his average completed pass travels just 4.9 air yards – that’s tied for 3rd-lowest among qualified passers (only Detroit’s Jared Goff 4.2, and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger 4.7 are lower).
This is not a post meant to denigrate what Aaron Rodgers means to the Packers – they would not be in a position as Super Bowl contenders without him. It’s also not to say that he isn’t deserving of the MVP Trophy – understanding his team’s strengths and adapting his game as he gets older is part of what makes him a special player. We’d also be remiss if we didn’t mention that Rodgers performs well in CPOE; he’s tied for 3rd at +2.9. Rodgers belongs at the top of the MVP conversation, but it should be a conversation and not just a crowning.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Potent Packers
As mentioned above, Dallas is the league’s best team against the spread, but the Packers are right behind at 11-4 ATS (73.3% cover percentage). Green Bay games have been far more competitive, though, as its +0.4 average point differential to the spread is 12th highest. The Pack has been one of the best home teams in the league this season, as well, going 5-1 ATS as home favorites this year. They are the only team in the league with at least three ATS wins as a home favorite and fewer than two losses. Overall, the Packers are 6-1 ATS at home this season, also the only NFL team with fewer than two home ATS losses.
Vegas responded very strongly to the news that Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins tested positive for COVID and will miss this game. When it was announced that Sean Mannion would start in his place, the line immediately moved six points in favor of the Packers, who went from seven-point favorites to 13-point favorites. Nobody is betting on Mannion and the Vikes, either, as 96% of the money has so far been put on the side of the home favorites, according to Action Network.