A Tale of Two Defenses...
In-depth preview of two of Sunday's biggest matchups, PIT/KC & WAS/DAL
Just a quick reminder in case you didn’t read yesterday’s Stack that we are presenting slightly shorter reports this weekend to allow our staff time with their loved ones this holiday season. We will return to regular reports next week and we will continue throughout the duration of the playoffs.
Thanks again for all of your support, enjoy the games!
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-6-1) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-4), 4:25ET
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Talk About a Turnaround…
Following one of the worst starts by a defense in recent memory, the Chiefs haven’t just turned it around relative to what they were – they’ve been arguably the NFL’s best defense since Week 8, allowing fewer than 14 points per game over their seven-game winning streak. They beat the Chargers last Thursday and allowed 28 points, the first time during their win streak that their opponent scored more than 17. Their rush defense let them down in the contest, allowing LA to run for 192 yards. But their pass defense continued to dominate, holding Justin Herbert to 236 passing yards and intercepting him once.
However, they failed to record a sack against the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, the first time that Kansas City recorded zero sacks since Week 6. They had eight sacks in their first seven games but have registered 16 during their winning streak. That’s no surprise considering the Chiefs are tied for the fourth-highest pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks (27.7%), according to Pro Football Reference. Because of its slow start, Kansas City has the fourth-fewest total sacks this season (24), but its QB hurry rate of 14.1% ranks behind only Buffalo (15.0%). The Chiefs are a team that blitzes relatively frequently, boasting the eighth-highest blitz percentage at 29.3% and they have benefitted from very good tackling. Their defense has missed only 68 tackles this season according to Pro Football Reference, the second fewest in the NFL (Broncos, 65).
It’s going to be a tough test for a Steelers’ offensive line that has had a rocky season. According to ESPN Analytics, Pittsburgh’s front has the third-worst pass-block win rate in the NFL at 50%, ahead of only Cincinnati (48%) and Miami (45%). They don’t run block well, either, tied for second worst at a 67% run-block win rate (only Houston is worse at 65%). No Pittsburgh offensive lineman ranks in the Top 10 in his position at either pass-block or run-block win rate. That should allow the Chiefs to pressure Roethlisberger, which could cause him to make mistakes; the Chiefs have intercepted at least one pass in nine straight games. The Steelers are 0-5 this season in games in which Ben Roethlisberger throws at least one interception and 7-1 in games when he doesn’t. That will certainly bear monitoring in this AFC showdown.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Chief Streaks
The Chiefs are a team that can be comfortably labeled as “streaky.” From Week 11 of 2019 through Week 8 of 2020 (including playoffs), Kansas City went 15-2 against-the-spread. Then, from Week 9 of 2020 through Week 9 of this season (including playoffs), the Chiefs went 3-16-1 ATS. Since that Week 9 failed cover against the Packers, Kansas City has rattled off five straight ATS victories. This includes covering three straight games as a home favorite following a slide of eight straight losses in the same situation from November 8 of last season through November 7 of this season -- exactly one year of futility. The Chiefs remain a great wager when they are hot, going 12-3 ATS since 2019 after back-to-back ATS wins.
Since their win over Buffalo in Week 1, the Steelers have gone 5-8 ATS over their past 13 games. However, they’ve historically been good road underdogs under Mike Tomlin and have gone 14-6 ATS in their last 20 such games. Speaking of the Steelers head coach, the Under is 35-18 in the Tomlin era when Pittsburgh faces a defense allowing 6+ yards per play. The Under is also 21-6 when the Chiefs are a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in the Andy Reid era.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (6-8) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (10-4), 8:20ET
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Defensive Struggles
These two teams met just two weeks ago, a 27-20 victory for Dallas. Despite the 47 total points, there was not nearly as much offense as the score might suggest. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott had one of his worst games of the season, posting his second-lowest passer rating of 2021, throwing multiple interceptions for only the second time this year and taking four sacks, also tied for second-most he’s taken in a single game. He also threw a pick-six late in the game that allowed the Football Team back in the game, a game they trailed by 19 points with under six minutes remaining.
It wasn’t much better on the other side, as Washington QB Taylor Heinicke completed just 11-of-25 passes for 122 yards, one touchdown, one interception and four sacks before he left the game with an injury. His 44% completion percentage in the game was a season-worst and his 55.7 passer rating was his second worst. He averaged fewer than five yards per attempt for the second time this season and he comes into this game having missed Washington’s contest in Week 15 following placement on the COVID list. He’ll have to exhibit a short memory to forget about the Dallas game, which was the last time we saw him on the field.
It won’t be easier, either, facing a Cowboys pass defense that has intercepted more passes (23) than touchdown passes allowed (18). Only the Bills have a better defensive passing touchdown-to-interception ratio (11-to-17). They also have allowed an adjusted passing yards per attempt of 5.9, third-best behind only New England (5.1) and Buffalo (4.6). Generally, more passing leads to more points, which is why all but four teams have a negative expected points contributed by passing defense; those teams are New England (+38.5), Buffalo (+35.8), Dallas (+27.2) and Arizona (+2.8). The next-closest team is Denver at -13.1 and the league’s worst team, the Jets, are at -153.2. Washington would be smart to try and establish the run, as Dallas has minus-2.7 expected points added by their rushing defense, which is 18th in the NFL. The other three teams with positive passing defenses – New England, Buffalo and Arizona – all have positive rushing defenses, as well.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
One of the Best vs. One of the Worst
Dallas began the season 7-0 against-the-spread before a brief rough patch in which it failed to cover in three out of four. However, the Cowboys have won three straight since, bringing their overall record to 11-3 ATS this season, the NFL’s best mark. They are a perfect 9-0 ATS against NFC opponents, outscoring them by an average of two touchdowns (32 to 18). Additionally, seven of their past eight games have gone Under the total. After starting the season 1-7 ATS in its first eight games, Washington then had a four-game ATS winning streak but have had a push and a loss since then and are 5-8-1 ATS overall. This is also a heavy Under team, with seven of the last nine going Under the total. In the last three seasons, Washington is 12-2 Under when facing a team with a winning record.