A Clash of Styles in the Big 12
Plus, can Kentucky erase 11-straight losses to UGA to vault itself into the CFP picture?
After a packed few weeks on the college football schedule, with ranked vs. ranked and College Football Playoff implications abound, the slate this weekend is a little lighter. There are just two ranked vs. ranked games this Saturday, and only one game that features two teams that are both ranked in the Top 20 (#11 Kentucky vs. #1 Georgia). Because of that, we will be looking at only those two games, rather than our usual three. Without further ado…
#12 OKLAHOMA STATE (5-0) AT #25 TEXAS (4-2), 12PM (ET)
Line: Longhorns -3.5, Total: 60
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Cowboys Bucking the Big 12 Stereotypes
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is trying to wrap his mind around these low-scoring games in what once was the high-scoring Big 12. The transition has been easier for him because his Cowboys are winning; Oklahoma State held Baylor to 280 total yards and beat the Bears 24-14 last time out, in a matchup of Big 12 teams that entered the game unbeaten. Such defensive performances are becoming the norm for the Cowboys — they haven't allowed more than 23 points in a game this season. But they haven’t scored more than 31, either. Gundy’s biggest concern? Turnovers. Spencer Sanders passed for 182 yards and a touchdown and ran for 76 more yards, but he helped Baylor stay in the game by throwing three interceptions.
Another potential concern for the Cowboys down the stretch is the gas in the tank of redshirt senior RB Jaylen Warren. Warren had 32 carries in the win at Boise State, 31 total touches (27 rushes, four receptions) against Kansas State, and another 36 carries and two catches against Baylor. And there is no measuring stick to judge what Warren can handle over the course of a season. Even in his sophomore year at Snow Junior College in Utah in 2018 -- when he led the nation in rushing yards per game and was named NJCAA National Offensive Player of the Year -- Warren averaged only 18.6 carries per game. He split time in his two years at Utah State and was never asked to carry the ball more than 20 times a game. He played in only three games last year before entering the transfer portal.
It’s the type of workload Oklahoma State last saw with Chuba Hubbard during his magical 2019 season in which he led the nation with 2,094 rushing yards. But is Warren, at 5-foot-8 and 215 pounds, built to handle that much work over an extended period? When you look at his numbers this season, Warren has averaged 6.1 yards per carry in the first half of games compared to just 3.0 yards per carry after halftime. The Cowboys will need him to tote the rock as many times as he can handle in this matchup where they find themselves as an underdog against the lower-ranked Longhorns.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Cowboy Turnaround
Between the years of 1998 and 2009, Oklahoma State did not defeat Texas a single time, going 0-12 straight-up during that time frame. But starting in 2010, the Cowboys have gotten the better of the Longhorns, winning seven of the last 11 matchups (although Texas has won the last two). What’s interesting though is the success that OSU has had in Austin. In the last seven trips to DKR Memorial Stadium dating back to 2008, Oklahoma State is 6-1 against-the-spread (5-2 straight-up). Additionally, Oklahoma State is 14-6 ATS against ranked opponents over the last five seasons, the best cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 15 games). Plus, Oklahoma State has covered 12 of its last 15 games as an underdog.
Texas, on the other hand, hasn’t been great against conference opponents at home lately. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, the Longhorns are 2-5-1 ATS at home against Big 12 opponents; although, they won and covered in their only opportunity so far this season, a 70-35 win over Texas Tech. And, under new head coach Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns are 4-1 ATS this season as a favorite.
Bettors Like the Trend
So far, bettors are backing the Cowboys and following the trends noted above, weighted heavily by the professionals. While only a slight majority of the tickets are on OSU (53%), a much larger portion of the money (76%) is backing the higher-ranked road dog, according to Action Network. Action is also reporting sharp money on the Cowboys, and one of their top CFB experts is on board, as well.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Explaining the Offensive Struggles
We noted in the first section that Oklahoma State has not had the offense that’s typically expected from Big 12 teams. We discussed the turnover issues, but that’s not the biggest factor that’s currently holding them back; it’s their inability to get ahead of the chains consistently. Out of the 65 teams that comprise the Power Five, OSU has the worst early-down success rate of all of them at 34.9%. The average early-down success rate among Power Five schools is 44.6%, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s led to a .342 points-per-play mark and a 5.0 yards-per-play mark that rank 82nd and 90th, respectively, out of the 130 FBS schools. When OSU can get the ball into opponent territory, they aren’t capitalizing; the Cowboys have scored on just 72.7% of their red zone trips this season, tied for 101st in the country.
Texas, on the other hand, has perhaps the best offense in the Big 12 -- and one of the best offenses in the country. Its .645 points-per-play is third in the entire FBS (behind only Ohio State and Coastal Carolina), and its 7.0 yards-per-play is tied for 6th. Unlike Oklahoma State, when Texas gets into the red area, they score. Just over 93% of Texas’ red-zone opportunities have resulted in points, with 76.6% of those ending in touchdowns. The biggest issue that the Longhorns offense has had this season is playing the full 60 minutes, which was on display in last week’s meltdown against rival Oklahoma – Texas blew the largest lead in a loss in the program’s history (21 points). After scoring 41 points in the game’s first three quarters, the Horns managed just 7 points on four fourth-quarter possessions. That’s been a theme this season; Texas ranks 5th in the FBS in points-per in the first quarter (13.0), tied for 7th in the second quarter (13.8), 9th in the third quarter (10.3) … and 58th in the fourth quarter (7.3). Oklahoma State’s defense, meanwhile, has allowed just 16 total points in the fourth quarter in its four games against FBS opponents.
#11 KENTUCKY (6-0) AT #1 GEORGIA (6-0), 3:30PM (ET)
Line: Bulldogs -21.5, Total: 44.5
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We Have a New Number One!!!
Following Alabama’s stunning loss last weekend to Texas A&M (we told you last week that we couldn’t write one of these without mentioning the Tide), the Georgia Bulldogs moved into the top spot in the AP Poll. Georgia hasn’t been ranked #1 in the AP Poll since the 2008 preseason and hasn’t been at the top in-season since 1982. Georgia also has the third-longest current FBS winning streak in the country at 10 games, which is behind only Iowa (12) and Oklahoma (14) … and just ahead of … Kentucky (8).
If Kentucky is going to knock off the top team in the land, it’s going to take a Herculean effort and the reversal of many years of failure. Georgia has won each of the past 11 meetings between the two schools, which is the longest streak by either team in the history of the SEC East rivalry. Not only that, but Kentucky has only once beaten the #1 team in the country on the road -- and that came in 1964 against Ole Miss.
The Wildcats are also going to need to reverse more recent history; in their past two games against Georgia, Kentucky hasn’t scored a single touchdown. And this season, Georgia has allowed only two TDs across its six games. No other SEC defense has allowed fewer than 10. Kentucky is coming off a six-touchdown game in a win over LSU (42-21), with QB Will Levis accounting for five of them (three passing, two rushing). On the season, the Penn State transfer has thrown for 11 scores and run for another three.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Trendy Trends
As noted, Georgia has won 11 straight meetings in this series, but after covering six in a row between 2013-2018, Kentucky has covered the past two, despite losing the games. This game is a battle between two of the best spread-covering teams in the FBS; both Georgia and Kentucky are 5-1 against-the-number this season. It should be noted that when highly-ranked teams meet, and one is a massive favorite, that favorite has been historically strong. Favorites of 21 or more points in AP top-15 matchups are 10-3 ATS since 1978.
Line Movement
This game has seen some very interesting line movement, especially considering which book you look at. Let’s look at a few examples:
At DraftKings, they opened this line at UGA -24.5 last week. Since then, it’s been bet down to 21.5, including a rather large jump between Thursday morning and Thursday evening, according to Vegas Insider (went from UGA -23 at 7:20am to UGA -21.5 at 4:24pm).
At Caesars, the line opened at UGA -22.5, was bet UP to UGA -24 and then was bet back DOWN to UGA -22. We see the exact same pattern at MGM, which opened at 22.5, moved up to 24, and then moved down to 21.5. Those are a few examples, but they reflect the general trend; this line has been bet up, down, back up and back down all week.
It’s no surprise that when we look at how the tickets/money are divided, it’s fairly-even currently. It’s been moving all week, which is reflected in the line movement, but appears to have settled. The public slightly likes Kentucky, with 58% of the bets placed on Big Blue, while the pros slightly like Georgia, with 55% of the money on the Dawgs.
The total, on the other hand, is where we see the sharp action, according to Action Network. While 52% of the tickets are on the under, 68% of the money (including sharps) is on the over.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
We Might Spend All Season Talking Georgia D…
As much as everyone might be sick of hearing about it, it’s impossible not to talk about what Georgia is doing defensively this season. They Bulldogs are holding opponents to 5.5 points per game this season; no other FBS school has held FBS opponents to less than 13 per game (Iowa has held opponents to 13.0 PPG, the next-best mark). Georgia’s opponents are averaging LESS THAN A TENTH OF A POINT PER PLAY at .091, nearly twice as low as the next best team (Penn State at .171). Other categories in which UGA ranks 1st: opponent yards-per-play (3.56), total defense (201.2 yards allowed per game), opponent red zone scores per game (the only team in the country allowing less than 1 per game at 0.7), passing efficiency defense (85.22), and opponent punts-per-score. Georgia opponents punt 6 times for every touchdown they score; the next-best mark is San Diego State at 3.8, and those are the only two programs whose number is greater than 3. All those stats are courtesy of Team Rankings, which only includes numbers from games involving two FBS schools.
In discussing the OK State/Texas matchup, we referenced OKST’s struggles on early down on offense; Georgia’s defense is the exact opposite, ranking 1st in early-down success-rate at 60%, according to Pro Football Focus. But they’re certainly no slouch later in the series; the team’s 68% success rate on third and fourth downs is 5th-best in the country. They do everything well: their overall PFF defensive grade of 94.8 is #1, their run defense (91.4) is #3, their coverage unit (94.9) is #1, and their pass rush (88.7) is #6.
So, yeah, the Georgia defense is really good. Historically good. And we’re probably going to keep writing about them all season.