TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-3) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-5), 1:00ET
Line: Bucs -3, Total: 53
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Carrying Momentum from Week-to-Week
If momentum carries over from one Sunday to the next, it’s hard to argue that the Colts would be bringing the most positive energy into Week 12. They went out and absolutely pounded one of the AFC favorites, the Bills -- in Buffalo, no less -- by four touchdowns. Not only that, but they did it in ways that Buffalo just does not allow. The Colts scored a touchdown on their opening drive -- one of Jonathan Taylor’s five on the day -- something that the Bills had not allowed over their previous 21 games. The contest was practically over at halftime with the Colts holding a 24-7 lead, the first time Buffalo had trailed at the half in a game this season – the Bills were the only NFL team remaining for whom that was true going into Week 11.
Finally, they took the best turnover team in the NFL (the Bills were +14 going into Week 11) and turned them over four times, while committing no miscues of their own. Indianapolis is now the NFL’s leader in turnover differential at +15 after a +4 performance in Buffalo. The Colts have forced at least one turnover in 12 straight games, the longest active streak in NFL. They are one of only two NFL teams that have forced at least one turnover in every game this season (Giants).
Although Tampa Bay is among the league’s best in turnover differential (currently seventh at +5), the team has been surprisingly careless with the football this season, especially of late. The Bucs have turned the ball over eight times in their past five games, but they’ve maintained a strong differential by taking the ball away themselves; Tampa has forced 10 turnovers in the past five games and 18 total this season. The Colts have not turned the ball over once during their three-game winning streak. Indianapolis has three giveaways in its six wins this season and seven giveaways in its five losses.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Brady is a Florida Guy Now
The Bucs have been extremely profitable to backers when playing in Tampa during the regular season recently but fading them on the road has been the play. Tampa has failed to cover in any of its five road games this season and is 4-9 ATS on the road in the regular season since Brady became the Bucs starting quarterback -- and they’ve been favored in 12 of the 13 games. Conversely, they are 4-1 ATS at home this season and 9-4 ATS since the start of last season.
Indianapolis hasn’t been great in its own building, however, going 4-8 ATS in the past 12 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Additionally, the Colts are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. Overall, Indy is 6-2 ATS in the previous eight games.
The public is backing the Bucs with 64% of the tickets currently on the road favorites and 70% of the money has followed, and that includes sharp action according to Action Network. Many books opened this game at Bucs -2.5, but there has been enough action on the road Buccaneers to push it past the all-important three-point threshold.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Shifting Spotlight in the South
When Titans superstar running back Derrick Henry suffered a likely season-ending injury in Week 8, it left a void at the top of the NFL’s running back rankings. It didn’t take long, however, for division mate Jonathan Taylor to immediately step into the vacated role in 2021. As mentioned in the first section, Taylor reached the end zone five times against the Bills and became the fifth player in the Super Bowl era with 200+ scrimmage yards and 5+ TD in a game (Jamaal Charles, Clinton Portis, Shaun Alexander and Jerry Rice are the others). He’s the NFL’s leader in rushing yards (1,122) and is the only player with 1,000+ yards on the ground this season. He averages 5.8 yards per carry, which is second in the league (Nick Chubb, 6.0).
Often when running backs achieve high levels of success, we can look at the offensive line as the biggest reason. Indianapolis’ line has been good, but Taylor’s underlying numbers show that he is picking up yards that other backs aren’t able to. Taylor is second at gaining yards after contact, picking up 726 this season. He trails Henry in that category (728), but Henry also still has more touches (237) than Taylor (225). Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards over expected with 322 -- over 100 yards more than the next-closest player (Chubb, 204). In fact, the third-highest ranking player in that category is another Browns ball carrier, D’Ernest Johnson, with 109 -- Taylor has more than both Johnson and Chubb combined. Only four NFL RBs have even 100+ yards in that category (Broncos’ rookie Javonte Williams along with the pair of Browns). Taylor averages 1.7 more yards per carry than he’s expected to gain, which is the NFL’s best among players with at least 75 rushes. He doesn’t do it with fancy dancing in the backfield, either -- Taylor is the most downhill rusher in the league, with an efficiency rating of 3.03, the lowest number in the league. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, “Rushing efficiency is calculated by taking the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards) per rushing yards gained. The lower the number, the more of a North/South runner.”
Now, Taylor and the Colts square off against the best rushing defense in the NFL in Tampa Bay. The Bucs allow 78.4 yards per game on the ground, the best mark in the league by over 10 yards/game (Ravens are second at 88.6). They are one of four defenses that hold ball carriers under four yards per tote (Saints, Bills and Jaguars). Opponents don’t test the defense often, either; opposing teams average 20.6 rushing attempts per game against Tampa, which is the fewest in the league. Indianapolis will need to establish the run to win this difficult test at home; the Colts are 6-0 when they rush for 125+ yards in a game and 0-5 when they don’t. The Bucs defense has allowed 125 yards just twice all season, surrendering 143 in a win vs. Chicago and 152 in a loss at New Orleans.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-3) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-3), 4:25ET
Line: Rams -1.5, Total: 47
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
Kickers are People, Too
One of the hallmarks of the Green Bay Packers’ attack in 2020 was their ability to hit their opponents early in the game and play from ahead. Last season, they scored 73 total points on their first drives of the games -- this year, they’ve scored just 20. In fact, after converting a field goal in their first drive against the Vikings last weekend, TV cameras showed head coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Aaron Rodgers both celebrating the kick, a bit more enthusiastically than you would traditionally see from an opening-drive, three-point score from an offense like Green Bay. But it wasn’t just the ability to score on the first drive of the game -- they were celebrating kicker Mason Crosby actually making a field goal.
It's not often that we would spend time writing about kickers -- in fact this is the first time this season that we’ll do so in an extended fashion -- but the struggles of the Packers franchise all-time leading scorer are worthy of discussion. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, having a reliable kicking game is invaluable. But the usually-reliable Crosby has been anything but over the past seven games. After making the opening-drive kick against Minnesota, Crosby would miss from 32 yards out a couple drives later, his eighth miss of the season after starting nine-for-nine. He’s just 6-for-13 on field goal attempts over the last seven games, making just two of his last six attempts. He’s only 50% (7-14) on kicks between 30-to-49 yards; prior to this season, he was 82% on such kicks for his career. Remember that Crosby was perfect on field goal attempts last season (16-of-16) and after converting his ninth straight to start this season, had connected on 27 consecutive attempts dating back to 2019.
Everything changed in the game against the Bengals in Week 5, however. Crosby missed three field goals in that game, more than he missed in 2019 and 2020 COMBINED (38-of-40). His eight missed field goals in the past seven games matches the number that he had in his previous 48 games dating back to 2018.
Important note: the Packers changed punters before the regular season, releasing JK Scott and trading a late-round draft pick for Corey Bojorquez. While the move has worked well in the punting game -- Bojorquez’s 44.5-yard average net is third in the NFL -- it removed the holder (Scott) with whom Crosby had worked with for three seasons. With the connection between Bojorquez and long snapper Hunter Bradley shaky earlier this season, the Packers released Bradley after eight games. Crosby missed his first three kicks with new snapper Steven Wirtel, none of them longer than 40 yards. Crosby hadn’t missed more than seven kicks in an entire season since 2012. If the Packers are going to make a run in the postseason, they need their 14-year veteran kicker to get it figured out, or they will have to find someone who can.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Green Bay has been Good ATS, but the Line is Moving Away
The Packers have been a very good team against-the-spread this season -- their failure to cover against the Vikings last week snapped a streak of nine straight wins ATS and they are 9-2 ATS this season. They’ve been an underdog three times this season and have covered each of those contests. The Total against the Vikings went Over, snapping a string of seven straight Packers games going Under. Overall, Packers games are 8-3 (Under-Over) this season. Meanwhile, the Rams have failed to cover four straight games, favored in each of those contests, after starting the season 4-2 ATS in their first six games with Matthew Stafford under center. And after starting the season with four straight games going Over the Total, the Under is 4-1-1 over the last six.
Despite these teams moving in opposite directions relative to beating the number, the spread has been moving toward the struggling Rams; Green Bay actually opened as the favorite in this game, anywhere from 1-to-2.5 points depending on the book. However, that has flipped to LA, which is now favored everywhere. At Draft Kings, Green Bay opened as a 1.5-point favorite and the Rams are currently now 1.5-point favorites. That would lend most to believe that the Rams are getting heavy action, however according to Action Network the Packers are seeing 53% of the tickets and 64% of the money. Bettors love the Over, too, with 71% of the bets and 83% of the money on that side. However, bettors should consider that the Under is 42-11 (79%) in the last 10 seasons in games where road favorites are coming off a double-digit loss (like the Rams last week when they got crushed in San Francisco).
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Take the Spotlight off of the Zebras
The late afternoon game on Thanksgiving Day, Cowboys-Raiders, was the most-watched NFL regular-season game in the past 30 years, delivering an average of 38.5 million viewers. Unfortunately for the league, the most noticeable participant was referee Shawn Hochuli. His crew called an incredible 28 penalties for 276 yards, prompting a lot of negative commentary on social media. On Sunday, this tilt between the Packers and Rams will take center-stage and although it’s unlikely to come near the 38 million people who watched on Thanksgiving, it’s likely to be the most-watched Sunday afternoon game this week, which is why Fox has it’s #1 broadcast crew -- Joe Buck and Troy Aikman -- on hand for the call. Luckily for the NFL, they’re getting two of the least penalized teams in the league for this contest.
The Rams (43.1 penalty yards per game, fourth in the league) and Packers (46.0 yards/game, fifth) rank in the Top 5 in fewest penalty yards assessed per game. However, Green Bay is coming off of its most undisciplined game of the season. The Packers were tied for fewest penalties per game entering Week 11 (4.3) but were called for nine against the Vikings for 77 yards. They went from second-fewest penalty yards per game (41.4) entering Week 11, to fifth entering Week 12. The Packers also greatly benefit from opposing pass-interference calls, having 12 called against their opponents which is tied with the Giants for most in the NFL. The Rams, meanwhile, have been called for pass interference only twice this season, trailing the Steelers and Texans who have each only been called once. Despite having a Top-5 passing attack (289.3 yards per game), Los Angeles has drawn just four pass-interference calls this season, tied for fourth fewest in the league. Meanwhile, the Packers have been assessed 162 yards worth of pass-interference penalties, which is fifth most in the league.
Penalties and turnovers are often the determining factor, especially in games between two good teams. Turnover margin is another area where both teams have been successful, especially the Packers. Green Bay’s +7 turnover differential ranks fourth, while the Rams +3 has them tied for 10th. When these teams met in the playoffs last year (a 32-18 Packers home win), neither team committed a turnover and there were only a total of five penalties between them for 57 combined yards. Avoiding the big turnovers and the big penalties will be a major key between these two NFC teams with eyes on the #1 overall seed in the conference.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-5) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-3), 8:20ET
Line: Ravens -3.5, Total: 47
ONE THING THAT EVERY FAN NEEDS TO KNOW
The Battle for the AFC North Begins NOW
The AFC North has been a very interesting division this season, as it often is. In fact, this year’s version represents the second time that an entire division has had a winning record through Week 11 or later in the last 10 seasons. The first time? The 2014 AFC North. But all of that is going to change over the next few weeks as these teams are going to see a lot of one another.
In an odd scheduling quirk, the Browns will actually play the Ravens twice in a row: after a bye next weekend, the Browns will welcome the Ravens to Cleveland. In between those two meetings with the Browns, the Ravens face fellow division rival Pittsburgh. The Bengals are the only AFC North team who will play fewer than two games over the next three weeks against divisional opponents. That could be good news for Cincinnati, which is currently one-and-a-half games behind these Ravens for first place in the division, as these teams beat up on each other in typical smash-mouth AFC North fashion.
Speaking of smash-mouth AFC North football, that’s exactly what to expect in this matchup: Cleveland and Baltimore are two of three NFL teams averaging 150+ yards rushing per game (Philadelphia). That 150-yard barometer is very important, especially to Cleveland. The Browns are 0-3 when rushing for fewer than 150 yards this season, while going 6-2 when running for more. Now they face a second-ranked Ravens rushing defense that allows fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground and has not allowed any team to rush for 150+ yards this season. Both of these teams come into this contest struggling on offense, as the Browns have scored 14 points or fewer in five games this season (tied for most with Houston), including four of quarterback Baker Mayfield's last five starts.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have scored 16 points or fewer in two straight games for the first time since 2017 when Joe Flacco was the starting QB. Quarterback Lamar Jackson did not play last week but is expected to start in this game. The last time we saw Jackson, he and the Ravens were losing on a Thursday night in Miami, scoring just 10 points. Lamar’s Ravens have never failed to reach 20 points in consecutive starts by him since he took over as the starting QB in 2018. In fact, the Ravens have been held under 20 points in three Lamar Jackson starts this season; they had just one such regular-season game in his first 37 starts from 2018-2020 (vs. New England in 2020). In five career starts against the Browns, Jackson is 4-1 and has led Baltimore to an average of 33.4 points per game.
TRENDS THAT EVERY SPORTS BETTOR NEEDS TO KNOW
Struggling Spread Teams Face Each Other on SNF
The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in three consecutive starts by Lamar Jackson after winning and covering last weekend with Tyler Huntley under center. Lamar’s Ravens are 3-6 ATS (1-6 ATS when favored) with him at quarterback this season after finishing 2020 on a six-game cover streak in the regular season. Also working against Baltimore: the team is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games against a team with a winning road record and 0-5 ATS in the last five games following an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Browns are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games overall, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against divisional opponents and 3-8 ATS against the Ravens the past 11 meetings. The Under has cashed in for six of the past nine between these two teams. The Under is also 25-12 (68%) when a John Harbaugh-coached Ravens team faces a good rushing team (130+ yards per game).
According to Action Network, the Ravens are seeing some sharp action and a slight majority of the overall bets placed (51%). However, Cleveland is seeing a much higher percentage of the total handle (71%). The Under is attracting 54% of the tickets, 71% of the money and some sharp action.
ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS THAT EVERY SPORTS NERD NEEDS TO KNOW
Mark Andrews: Browns Killer
Since the start of 2019, Mark Andrews has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL. He ranks third in yards with 2,249 (Darren Waller & Travis Kelce), third in catches with 178 (Kelce & Waller), tied for second in yards per catch with George Kittle at 12.6 (Kelce is 1st), and tied with Kelce for the most touchdown catches (21). According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, over 40% of each of those TD scores has come in the middle of the field (between the numbers). Andrews has scored 10 touchdowns over the past 2+ seasons in the middle of the field, which leads all receivers.
Andrews has been consistently productive when facing Cleveland, recording 25 catches for 330 yards, while catching five touchdown passes in six career games. The 330 yards and 5 TDs are both more than he has vs any other singular opponent and the 25 catches rank second (he has 29 against the Bengals). This year’s Browns defense has not been good against tight ends either, allowing six touchdown passes and intercepting zero passes on balls targeting tight ends, which is the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio of any team against throws to the TE.
In his last four games against Cleveland, Andrews has caught 20 passes for 260 yards and five touchdowns; all five touchdowns have come across the middle, as well as 11 of those receptions and 164 of the yards. Andrews is the only tight end in the NFL with five touchdown catches against one opponent since the start of 2019. In games this season where the Browns have allowed at least one receiving touchdown to an opposing tight end, the team is 0-4. But they have gone 6-1 when keeping the opposing TE out of the end zone. Andrews, as he often is in this AFC North rivalry game, will be a pivotal piece in Lamar Jackson’s return to the lineup after a one-game absence.